Five Cuts: Key for Dodgers is having Kuo to KO trouble

Hong-Chih Kuo will be called on to get some key outs in the NLCS. Jeff Gross/Getty Images Ryan Howard, 2008 Game situation HR AVG OBP SLG Innings 1-3 21 .305 .380 .671 Innings 4-6 18 .296 .362 .624 Innings 7-9 9 .141 .263 .316

1. The most important Dodger in the NLCS may turn out to be Hong-Chih Kuo, their lockdown lefthanded reliever who is needed against the balanced Philadelphia lineup. Los Angeles had no need for a lefty against the righthanded-heavy Cubs; the Dodgers played Chicago 10 times this year without having a lefthander throw a single pitch. But with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino and bench players Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs, the Phillies present big-time trouble from the left side. Joe Beimel gives the Dodgers one good situational lefty, but Clayton Kershaw is a young lefthanded starter who can't be counted on to come into a jam to face a lefthander. That's why the Dodgers need Kuo, who was left off the NLDS roster because of a mysterious arm ailment. Kuo's left arm began changing colors when he warmed up to pitch in the final series of the regular season. Though it has been reported that Kuo was suffering from a circulatory problem, the Dodgers ruled out any structural or medical concerns, preferring to think he simply fell victim to getting overly anxious.

Kuo would serve a huge role in the series. He is the rare reliever who can get out both righthanders (one home run in 225 plate appearances) and lefthanders. It's just that he is wickedly tough on lefties. Almost half of the lefthanded at-bats against Kuo were strikeouts (44 of 94), with just a .216 on-base percentage.

2. Kuo is important because baseball, especially in October, has become a game about pitching matchups from the seventh inning on. And that's why Ryan Howard of the Phillies is typically a non-factor late in games. Howard is a career .231 hitter against lefthanded pitchers. It's a huge flaw in his game. What that means is that there is no way an opposing manager is going to give Howard an at-bat against a righthander in the late innings in any meaningful spot. Faced with a steady diet of lefties late in games, Howard disappears as an offensive force. If you're looking for Howard to come up with big hits late in the game, the numbers from 2008 tell you to forget it, as managers match up lefties against him in the late innings to neutralize him. Basically, the guy morphs from Lou Gehrig to Omar Moreno as the game goes on (see table above).

3. The Dodgers are much more concerned about this matchup with the Phillies than the one against the Cubs. Los Angeles knew Chicago pitchers were prone to losing the plate at times, and the Dodgers believed that Cubs starters Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden were either hurt or gassed; neither one could throw in the upper 90s as they did earlier in the season. The Dodgers saw 477 pitches in three games, an average of 18.3 pitches per inning. But the Phillies? "We're going to have to swing the bats," Los Angeles hitting coach Don Mattingly said. The task is much more difficult because Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, who could start four of the first six games, ranked ninth and 19th, respectively, in fewest pitches per inning among NL pitchers who threw at least 160 innings. By the way, the Dodgers have three of the league's eight most efficient pitchers: Greg Maddux (No. 1), Derek Lowe (7) and Hiroki Kuroda (8).

4. Some advice to the Red Sox: don't think you're going to play come-from-behind baseball against Tampa Bay at the Trop. The Rays lost only four games at home all season in games in which they led by at least two runs. They lost only twice at home in games with a three-run lead. And no team came from four runs down to beat the Rays at the Tropicana Dome.

5. Did you notice that the Reds said they are not interested in bringing back Corey Patterson? Hello? They had to find out for themselves over a full year that Patterson is an awful offensive player? Did they really give him 155 plate appearances this year out of the leadoff spot? Look at it this way: no outfielder in the history of baseball has been given this much playing time and been this bad. After nine years and 3,466 at-bats, Patterson has a career on-base percentage of .291. Only two other outfielders in history have been given so many chances and been that bad, but at least they had power. Here are the worst OBPs for outfielders with at least 3,400 at-bats:

If you want to look at OPS+, a measure of weighted OPS, the list of worst hitting outfielders with so many chances looks like this:

OPS+

1. Darren Lewis 72

2. Tom Goodwin 73

3. Otis Nixon 77

4. Doug Glanville 78

5. Corey Patterson 79

Omar Moreno 79