Red Sox can afford to gamble on Penny, Bard, Baldelli and Smoltz

By Cliff Corcoran, Special to SI.com

Coming off shoulder surgery, John Smoltz likely won't pitch before the end of May. Al Tielemans/SI Related Links Red Sox agree to terms with Baldelli and Smoltz WILKINSON: Smoltz departure signals end of era

Are the Boston Red Sox filling out their roster or casting a Celebrity Rehab spin-off focused on sports injuries?

First, they signed right-hander Brad Penny, whose tender shoulder limited him to 17 starts and a 6.27 ERA last year. Then they inked catcher Josh Bard, who was limited to 198 plate appearances and a .202 average by ankle and triceps injuries. They followed that by signing outfielder Rocco Baldelli, whose career was in doubt less than a year ago due to a recently re-diagnosed cellular disorder that saps his strength and limited him to 90 major league games last season. Now they've reached an agreement with eight-time All-Star John Smoltz, who threw just 28 innings last year due to a variety of shoulder ailments that prompted season-ending surgery in June.

It could be that they're just being smart. Those four players are each signed to incentive-laden one-year contracts that will cost the Red Sox a base total of $12.2 million, or $4.25 million less than the Yankees will pay the injury-prone A.J. Burnett in the first year of his five-year contract (or, to turn the tables on Boston, just $200,000 more than they'll pay the rapidly-aging Mike Lowell in the second year of his three-year contract). The 31-year-old Bard won't cost them more than $2.5 million, even if he cashes in all his bonuses. Bard isn't a star, but he seems a fair bet to beat what the Sox would have gotten from a 37-year-old Jason Varitek, who is still twisting in the free-agent winds following a .220/.313/.359 season ffor which he earned $9 million in the final year of a three-year deal.

Baldelli, whose base salary is a mere $500,000, was diagnosed with a mitochondrial disorder last March, but that diagnosis was more recently changed to channelopathy, a different cellular disorder that is less severe and responds better to treatment. He spent 2008 working his way back into playing shape, hit well over the last two months of the season, and contributed to the Rays' World Series run as a right-handed platoon DH and right fielder. As a part-time player who can spell J.D. Drew and David Ortiz against lefties, he could be well worth the additional $1.75 million in roster bonuses he'd stand to make, though it's worth pointing out that he's unlikely to be able to play center field or to be in the lineup daily in the event of an injury to a starter (thus the additional $5.25 million in bonuses tied to plate appearances in his contract).

Penny, as previously discussed, is purely a $5 million insurance policy against the continued struggles of Clay Buchholz, another Josh Beckett injury, or the advancing age of Tim Wakefield. Smoltz, though given a similar one-year deal with a $5 million base salary and several million in bonuses ($3 million for Penny, $5 million for Smoltz), is far more interesting.

Not only is Smoltz a future Hall of Famer who has only worn the major league uniform of one team in his 20-year career, but despite a variety of injuries over the course of his career, including elbow pain that limited him in 1998 and '99 and eventually led to Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2000, he's posted an ERA over 4.00 just once since '89, that coming all the way back in the strike year of '94 when he posted a 4.14. That's remarkable both on it's face -- Smoltz did, after all, pitch through the greatest run-scoring era of the 20th century -- and because of his ability to be effective despite injury and rehab.

When his elbow limited him to 354 innings between 1998 and '99, Smoltz still posted a 3.05 ERA and a 3.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he returned from ligament-replacement surgery in May '01, he made five disappointing starts, then posted a 1.59 ERA out of the bullpen and went on to record three of the most dominant seasons a closer has ever had. At the age of 37, he decided to return to the rotation and went 44-24 with a 3.22 ERA and a 3.72 K/BB over the next three seasons. Even last year, he turned in four dominant starts before his shoulder gave out.

Smoltz, who will turn 42 in May before his expected return, won't be able to defy the odds and his body forever. However, when Dr. James Andrews repaired his shoulder last June, it was implied that the wear and tear he found, while significant, wasn't unusual for a pitcher who had thrown as many innings as Smoltz (though only 80 men have ever thrown more). That's somewhat encouraging, as is the fact that Smoltz is a viable option in the bullpen if he is unable to contribute as a starter.

If Penny is intended to be rotation insurance, much the same role Bartolo Colon played last year as he went 4-2 with a 3.92 ERA in seven starts for the Sox, Smoltz is the secret weapon. He could combine with Penny to fill a rotation spot over the course of the season, each contributing roughly 100 innings, or he could slip into the bullpen and give Boston a devastating end-game in combination with closer Jonathan Papelbon, fellow righty Manny Delcarmen, and lefties Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez.

Of course, the existing strength of the Red Sox's roster is what allows the team to take such gambles, and the strength of their revenue stream is what makes a $5 million base salary for a 42-year-old pitcher coming off labrum surgery an acceptable gamble to make.

In contrast, the Brewers have made a much lower-risk investment with a much higher chance of reward by bringing in closer Trevor Hoffman, another 40-something pitcher who has just left the team with whom he enjoyed a Hall-of-Fame career, on a one-year deal worth $6 million.

It's a curious pairing of player and team, considering one of Hoffman's most famous blown saves came against the Brewers in the final series of the 2007 regular season and, along with another Hoffman slip up in the Padres' subsequent one-game playoff against the Rockies, cost San Diego a trip to the postseason. Still, Hoffman had a fine season last year, even if he was underused by a last-place Padres team that had few leads to protect. There's some concern that age is slowing Hoffman's fastball to the point at which the separation between the speed of that pitch and the speed of his famous changeup is no longer enough to fool hitters, but you'd be hard-pressed to find evidence of that in his performance as he posted a phenomenal 5.1 K/BB last season.

Hoffman should thus deliver on the Brewers investment (which includes a potential $1.5 million in performance bonuses), but, like the Angels signing Brian Fuentes without improving their offense, the Brewers had more important problems to worry about. With CC Sabathia with the Yankees and Ben Sheets a free agent hot-potato due to his injury history (at least until he's willing to take a Smoltz-like deal himself), the Brewers are in far greater need of starting pitching than they were a 41-year-old closer. Hoffman alone won't prevent the Brewers' return to the playoffs last year from being as isolated an event as their last trip in 1982.

Cliff Corcoran is a frequent contributor to SI.com.