By Joe Lemire, SI.com
Alexei Ramirez enjoyed a sensational rookie campaign in '08, hitting .290 with 21 homers. AP |
CLICK HERE FOR: Chicago | Cleveland | Detroit | Kansas City | Minnesota
The AL Central ought to be baseball's most competitive division, a top-to-bottom collection of mediocrity. Each team has a few strengths but lacks balance and would be afterthoughts in the powerhouse AL East. Baseball Prospectus' prediction engine, PECOTA, expects only 10 wins separating the projected first- (Cleveland) and last-place (Kansas City) teams in 2009. In the final standings from last season, the range was 15 wins, six closer than the next most tightly packed division, the NL West.
No superstars entered the division this offseason, but none left, either, so the balance of power won't tip too much unless there's a breakout season lurking in the rough.
Chicago White Sox
Location: Glendale, Ariz. (Cactus League)
2008 record: 89-74 (1st, AL Central); Lost in ALDS.
Winter grade: B-
For a defending division champion, the White Sox sure made some curious moves. Seemingly already able to compete for the next several years, the South Siders traded 1B/OF Nick Swisher and SP Javy Vazquez for a total of seven players, six of whom were primarily minor leaguers a year ago. Only three are expected to contribute this season, two utility infielders (Wilson Betemit, Brent Lillibridge) and a possible fifth starter (Jeff Marquez). Trying to duplicate last year's success with Alexei Ramirez, the ChiSox signed another young, Cuban infielder, 19-year-old Dayan Viciedo, though it's unclear where he's projected to play with Josh Fields the heavy favorite at third base after Joe Crede was allowed to leave. Former Rockies second baseman Jayson Nix was also added.
Key question: Where are the White Sox going to play all of their infielders?
With Paul Konerko entrenched at first base and Ramirez, who finished second to Evan Longoria on last year's AL Rookie of the Year ballot, moving to shortstop, there are two open infield slots. Longtime uber-prospect Fields is likely to get a long and forgiving look as he works to become the starting third baseman. That leaves Chicago's own prospect Chris Getz to battle with Nix and Lillibridge for second base. Betemit waits in the wings, presumably to provide depth at the corner infield positions.
Prospect to watch: Aaron Poreda, P
The 6-foot-6, 240-pound lefty sinkerballer already has an "excellent" shot to make the Opening Day roster, manager Ozzie Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. Chicago's first-round pick in 2007 -- the 22-year-old former high school defensive lineman -- made 12 starts in high A ball and then 15 starts at Class AA Birmingham last season, where he had a 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 72 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings. The White Sox have three locks in their starting rotation (Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks), with Bartolo Colon, Lance Broadway, Clayton Richard, Marquez and Poreda competing for the Nos. 4 and 5 spots. Even if Poreda misses the rotation, he's likely to latch on in the bullpen.
Position battle to follow: Center field
The other hot spot, alongside second base, comes down to whether Jerry Owens, DeWayne Wise or Brian Anderson can assert himself as the everyday centerfielder now that Swisher and Ken Griffey Jr. are gone. Owens had a great spring in 2008, but a groin injury derailed him before the season and he ended up playing only 12 games. Anderson, a former first-round pick, and Wise, who had six homers and nine steals in only 127 at bats, both have career on-base percentages below .300. The lineup had little trouble scoring runs last year -- 811, fifth in the league -- but it was skewed toward a few players, namely Ramirez and the big bats of Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye, Konerko and Jim Thome. Getting more production from another position would help balance the attack.
Scout's take: "The White Sox have the advantage [in the division]. ... They have good starting pitching and a good bullpen, if [closer Bobby] Jenks stays healthy with both [Matt] Thornton and [Scott] Linebrink in the back. ... Ramirez had a breakout year, but can he do it again? If they go out and acquire a second baseman like an Orlando Hudson type, they win the division. Lillibridge is a good defender, but he can't hit me. ... I think the key to this club is going to be Jermaine Dye and, if they trade him during the half year, what they get for him. ... They're in big trouble in centerfield. Neither one of those guys [Owens or Anderson] thrills them. [Wise] has been around a long time. I remember seeing him as a Rule Five guy in Toronto [in 2000], and how many years ago was that? I don't know if he's going to do it again. ... The White Sox, they've been there, and Ozzie gets stuff out of guys."
Cleveland Indians
Location: Goodyear, Ariz. (Cactus League)
2008 record: 81-81 (3rd AL Central)
Winter grade: C+
The Indians didn't grab a star to replace CC Sabathia but snagged a pair of former Cubs who should help fill obvious holes. They signed Kerry Wood -- who made only one trip to the DL last year and stayed healthy enough to save 34 games and make the All-Star Game -- to be their closer, a much-needed upgrade over Joe Borowski, and they traded three minor leaguers for Mark DeRosa. The utility player will have more of a home at third base in Cleveland and will be a nice replacement for Casey Blake. With Wood, those talking Tom Hamilton bobbleheads ("swing and a miss, ballgame") the Indians gave out two years ago will be more relevant than when JoeBo was on the mound.
Acquiring reliever Joe Smith adds bullpen depth at the expense of outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, who would have done no better than platoon this year anyway with the emergence of Shin-Soo Choo. Carl Pavano was a dismal failure for the Yankees, but his incentive-laden contract is a low-stakes gamble.
Key question: Can Cliff Lee duplicate the magic?
His out-of-nowhere Cy Young season has been well-documented, especially after he was demoted to the minors the year before. And while matching a 22-3, 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP will be very hard, he may not fall off too much. He was successful even before his disastrous 2007 season, and the major difference in '08 was simply a healthy spring training and better command of his fastball. In '08 Lee led all major-league qualifiers in strike percentage, according to baseball-reference.com, throwing 69.3 percent of his pitches in the zone and, as a result, was third in quality start percentage (74.2), trailing only Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.
Prospect to watch: Matt LaPorta, LF
He could be one of the game's most pure power hitters, and the tales of his homers are already legendary. Though a longshot to make the big-league club out of spring training, LaPorta, who will play left field in the Indians system, was the key cog in the Sabathia trade to the Brewers. LaPorta should opt for a month-to-month lease while playing for Triple A Columbus because it won't be long before he's hopping on I-71 to Cleveland.
Position battle to watch: Designated hitter
OK, so it won't be announced as any sort of position battle, but let's face it: Travis Hafner has to prove he still deserves the at-bats. In 2004, '05 and '06 -- three seasons in which he received MVP votes -- Hafner had at least 72 extra-base hits, drove in at least 108 runs, batted at least .305 and had an OBP and SLG of at least .408 and .583, respectively. In '07 he fell to 51 extra-base hits, 100 RBIs and a .266/.385/.451. His '08 campaign was far worse, as he only stayed healthy enough for 57 games, hitting only 15 extra-base hits (five homers) and had a .197/.305/.323 split.
The emergence of Kelly Shoppach would free Victor Martinez to DH or for V-Mart to play first, so that Ryan Garko can DH. And, of course, there's LaPorta waiting in the wings.
Scout's take: "The bullpen behind [Wood] is not the best I've ever seen. Their rotation is real good up top, but it goes 1-2-5-5-5. There aren't any middle guys in there. ... Carmona definitely has the ability, but whether he's mentally ready, who knows? ... They're constructed like a playoff team rather than a full-season team, pitching-wise. They have a legitimate ace candidate and a legitimate closer candidate. ... A real important pickup for them is going to be Mark DeRosa. He's a very good, clutch player. I was very surprised the Cubs gave up on him as quickly as they did. He's a good clubhouse leader. ... If Hafner's healthy, he's one of the most dangerous hitters in major league baseball. His career path is very similar to David Ortiz: had a lot of holes, every year he closed up a couple of them, then the next year he closed a couple more."
PRINT
EMAIL
RSS
SHARE
