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Florida Marlins

SI Prediction: 4th in NL East

Ramirez is one of the league's top five offensive threats, but he has to raise his defensive game. Al Tielemans/SI FAST FACTS Manager Fredi Gonzalez Third season with Marlins Team Page | 2009 Schedule THE NUMBERS LIE | DON'T LIE 1.45 New closer Matt Lindstrom's unimpressive WHIP in 2008. But his numbers were skewed by a terrible first half in which everything opponents got wood on seemed to fall: Lindstrom's WHIP was 1.85 largely because opponents hit .393 on balls put in play. (The NL average was .300; anything much higher than that can be attributed to bad luck.) In the second half opponents hit .269 on balls in play, and his WHIP was a solid 1.07. CONSIDER THIS With Hanley Ramirez moving down to the three hole, manager Fredi Gonzalez has been auditioning a number of players in the leadoff spot this spring. The spot is likely to go to 22-year-old Cameron Maybin, who has excellent speed and has shown some ability to draw walks and get on base -- he did both in the Southern League last year. However, his high strikeout rate and lack of playing time above Double A make him a risk at the top of the order. A better idea would be to jump-start Jeremy Hermida's stalled career by using him in the top spot. The lefty-swinging Hermida is extremely patient, seeing more than four pitches per plate appearance, and his career OBP of .342 sticks out on a team that can count on only Ramirez and perhaps second baseman Dan Uggla to have a higher percentage. BATTING ORDER POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB CF Cameron Maybin (R) R 192 .277 13 49 21 C John Baker L-R 250 .299 5 32 0 SS Hanley Ramirez R 2 .301 33 67 35 3B Jorge Cantu R 77 .277 29 95 6 2B Dan Uggla R 39 .260 32 92 5 LF Jeremy Hermida L-R 168 .249 17 61 6 RF Cody Ross R-L 135 .260 22 73 6 1B Gaby Sanchez (R) R 213 .314 17 92 17 BENCH POS. PLAYER B-T PVR BA HR RBI SB OF-IF Alfredo Amezaga S-R 304 .264 3 32 8 IF Wes Helms R 352 .243 5 31 0 IF Mike Rabelo S-R 366 .202 3 10 0 ROTATION PITCHER PVR W L K/9 WHIP ERA RH Ricky Nolasco 16 15 8 7.9 1.10 3.52 RH Josh Johnson 23 7 1 7.9 1.35 3.61 RH Chris Volstad 74 6 4 5.6 1.33 2.88 RH Anibal Sanchez 154 2 5 8.7 1.57 5.57 LH Andrew Miller 131 6 10 7.5 1.64 5.87 BULLPEN PITCHER PVR W SV K/9 WHIP ERA RH Matt Lindstrom 56 3 5 6.8 1.45 3.14 RH Leo Nuñez 170 4 0 4.8 1.24 2.98 RH Scott Proctor 330 2 0 10.7 1.68 6.05

There aren't many worse workplace experiences than having your boss pull you aside to privately give you a sarcastic Hey, nice job. But there are a few. Like having your boss interrupt a press conference to publicly give you a sarcastic Hey, nice job. The Marlins found that out when they made four errors in their Grapefruit League opener, a 5-5 tie against the Cardinals. While most of the players were content to write it off as rust -- "Hey, man, first day," said shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who made one of the miscues -- team president Larry Beinfest wasn't so forgiving. He interrupted manager Fredi Gonzalez's postgame talk with reporters to share this acerbic assessment: "More runs than errors: We'll take it as a positive."

Fielding is understandably a sore spot for Beinfest. In 2008 -- a season in which they surprisingly won 84 games and lingered around the wild-card race until late September -- the Marlins made 117 errors, second only to the Nationals in the NL. With a roster that makes less than Alex Rodriguez, Florida isn't going to overwhelm opponents with star power. If the Marlins win, it'll be by limiting their mistakes and not putting their young pitchers in a hole by giving away outs. (Not that the hurlers are completely innocent; the less said about Anibal Sanchez and his .636 fielding percentage, the better.)

That's not to say that Florida's staff can't work its way out of trouble. The top three starters -- Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad -- last year combined for a .683 winning percentage, a 3.40 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. And the two guys who fill out the rotation are potentially dominant: Sanchez, who threw a no-hitter as a rookie in 2006, and Andrew Miller, a gas-throwing lefty who was taken No. 6 by the Tigers in '06. None of the five are older than 26. "They're young, but they're more advanced than most guys at the same age," says pitching coach Mark Wiley. "And they definitely feel like they belong here. They're into the game, they compete, they have the stuff. There are no issues with any of those guys."

Well, there is one issue: Only Miller and Volstad haven't missed substantial time due to injury in the past two seasons. But Wiley believes that an injury to a young pitcher can prove beneficial. "They can come back better because they pay attention to things that are more important, like conditioning and making fewer maximum-effort pitches," he says. The 6' 7" Johnson, for instance, dropped 30 pounds during rehab after his 2007 Tommy John surgery. He returned last July and went 7-1 in 14 starts.

But the real revelation was Nolasco, 26, who emerged as an ace (15 wins and a 1.10 WHIP) after spending almost all of 2007 in the minors rehabbing his inflamed right elbow. While he might seem ripe for a letdown now that hitters have had a year to see his stuff, Nolasco throws so many pitches and gives so many looks that he's virtually impossible to peg. "It's almost like he made up pitches as he went along," says Miller, who charted most of Nolasco's starts last year. "He was a different pitcher every week. He'd throw a lot of cutters one game, then it'd be curveballs, then the next game it'd be his changeup. He never gave hitters a chance to get comfortable."

Another factor working in Nolasco's favor: He's a strikeout-fly ball pitcher, which should keep the ball away from the Marlins' granite-gloved infielders. Their most memorable 2008 performance came at the All-Star Game, in which second baseman Dan Uggla set a record with three errors. Uggla's double play partner, Ramirez, was no Hoover himself, and he did little to improve his limited range by putting on 25 pounds with a rigorous off-season workout program.

But, man, can Uggla and Ramirez rake. Last year they became the first middle infield combo to hit 30 homers apiece. And the lineup will only get stronger with the addition of centerfielder Cameron Maybin, who batted .500 in a September call-up last year, then had an impressive spring. With those sticks and the Marlins' maturing staff, Uggla and Ramirez have an outside chance of booting routine ground balls in October.

-- Mark Bechtal

Issue date: April 6, 2009