Roundtable: Musings at midseason

Paul Pierce (right) and the Celtics are facing stiff competition in the East from Dwight Howard's Magic in addition to the Cavs. AP NBA Midseason Report   Aschburner: Report card for all 30 teams Thomsen: LeBron the MVP; more awards Roundtable: How will East race play out? Gallery: The biggest first-half storylines Aschburner: Second-half intrigue awaits SI.com's East All-Star picks | West picks

SI.com NBA writers analyze the latest news and address hot topics from around the league each week. (All stats and records are through Wednesday's games.)

1. How do you see the race for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference playing out?

Ian Thomsen: It's going to be tight all the way through, which should compel the Cavs and Celtics to each pick up a veteran or two for their benches going into March. The race is not just about the home-court advantage: Orlando, Cleveland and Boston want to avoid each other in the second round -- which means the No. 1 seed will have the far easier road to the conference finals. I like the chances of Cleveland or Boston to win the regular season simply because their key players are older, they've been through it before and they should have a graver understanding of the importance. But Orlando looks more impressive with each week.

Jack McCallum: That's the most intriguing question of the season at this point. The Magic seem, suddenly, like a seasoned team, and they always did have a seasoned coach in Stan Van Gundy. LeBron James is on a mission to take his team all the way, not to mention saturate the airwaves with his own bad self. But I'm still going with the tried and true -- the Celtics' recent slide only toughened them for the road ahead. They will prevail as No. 1.

Chris Mannix: Tiebreaker, baby! Cleveland, Boston and Orlando are so evenly matched and in all likelihood all three will finish with 15-20 losses. So it's not a stretch to say that the top seed could come down to a tiebreaker. And what is the No. 1 tiebreaker? Head-to-head matchups. That's why Cleveland's recent victory against the Celtics was so important -- the Cavs avoided a 2-0 deficit in the four-game season series -- and why Orlando, which has already lost to the Celtics once this season, needs Thursday night's game even more than Boston does. That said, I'm going with a 15-loss Cleveland team to claim the top spot in a tiebreaker over Boston.

Steve Aschburner: My hunch is that Cleveland, eager to set itself up perfectly for a run at a championship, puts the most value on this and finishes with the strongest kick to win the No. 1 seed. It could shape up like the West last year, when the Lakers edged out the exciting, young club from New Orleans, only with the Cavs in the L.A. role and Orlando as the Hornets. As formidable as the Celtics are at the Garden, and as much as home court meant to them last spring, they strike me as a veteran club that believes it no longer needs the home-court edge throughout to win. If that in fact is the case, I'd say they're wrong.

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2. Which team has the best chance to be the NBA's version of the Arizona Cardinals -- a club that unexpectedly contends for a championship?

Ian Thomsen: No underdog is going to get past the Lakers or Spurs in the West or the top three in the East. The teams with the best chance to create an upset or two as a lower seed are the Rockets and Suns, who have a lot of talent but are using the regular season to pull themselves together. Neither team will coalesce well enough to win the championship as an underdog, but either of them could knock off a favorite or two in the early rounds.

Jack McCallum: I picked the Hornets to win the title at the beginning of the season, a prognostication that doesn't look good right now but I'm not bailing on it. And what about the Magic? I know they're putting together an outstanding regular season, but they are unproven in the playoffs. This is still a relatively young team that doesn't have a Kurt Warner type, but we'll shrink Dwight Howard by a foot or so and cast him in the role of Larry Fitzgerald.

Chris Mannix: Denver. The Nuggets have always had the talent. They just haven't been able to put it all together. Enter Chauncey Billups, Denver's version of Kurt Warner. Billups tends to shine when the spotlight is brightest, and there is no bigger stage than the postseason. Like with the Cardinals, a lot of things would have to go right: Carmelo Anthony would have to shoot a high percentage, Nenê would have to be a presence inside and the Denver defense would need to give an Arizona-type effort in the playoffs. But it's possible.

Steve Aschburner: Atlanta. Seven letters, starts with an "A,'' ends with an "a'' -- I really think there's something going on here. The only part that doesn't fit is the glimmer of postseason success Atlanta had last year against Boston. But the Hawks only recently had "hapless'' surgically removed from in front of their nickname, they are a franchise that has moved from city to city and they suddenly have the youth and the talent in house to surprise a lot of people. I can't see them pushing all the way through the playoffs to the Finals, but then, no one saw the Cardinals doing that either.