Roundtable: Teams poised to rise, fall during the NBA's stretch run

After battling injuries all season, red-hot point guard Deron Williams and the Jazz are starting to put it together. AP

SI.com NBA writers analyze the latest news and address hot topics from around the league each week. (All stats and records are through Monday's games.)

1. The All-Star break and trade deadline are in the books and the playoffs begin in less than two months. Who is in position to make a move during the stretch run?

Ian Thomsen: Orlando avoided a second-half collapse by trading for Rafer Alston to fill in for Jameer Nelson. But nothing else has changed. No one will catch Boston and Cleveland in the East, and the West remains murky after the Lakers, with Denver the most likely challenger to San Antonio for the No. 2 spot. The Jazz are getting hot just as Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer have returned to the lineup. Yet will the close of the regular season change impressions that the playoffs will come down to the Spurs and Los Angeles? Probably not.

Jack McCallum: Interesting question since the league has become so clearly demarcated, with three contenders in the East and only one in the West. So I assume we mean a move that lands a team a spot or two higher, not at the very top of the standings. I look, then, to the West and choose the Trail Blazers. Greg Oden is hurt again. So what? I'm not writing him off (though I thought then and think now that Kevin Durant would've been a better pick in the 2007 draft), but they're just as good without him right now. Portland will pass the Nuggets and have a chance to overtake the Spurs for second.

Chris Mannix: To me, the NBA's final four appears set: Boston and Cleveland will battle it out in the East, and the Spurs and Lakers are on a collision course in the West. But spoilers lurk in both conferences. If the Nuggets enter the postseason healthy, they will be dangerous. The Magic were written off when Nelson went down, but some scouts I've spoken with feel that Alston can be even better for that team than Nelson was. Alston is a pass-first point guard on a team loaded with shooters, and if the Magic are knocking down their threes, they are, as Celtics coach Doc Rivers said, "almost impossible to match up with."

Steve Aschburner: Things seem to be setting up quite nicely for the Cavaliers, don't they? They didn't disrupt their team -- that is, their rotation and their chemistry -- at the trade deadline and they're getting healthier while others around them get hurt. Cleveland made enough moves from the outside a year ago and over the summer, so now it's all about jelling and growing together in a serious push to the NBA Finals. It's a different squad, a different feel from the 2007 bunch that got there. As for any interest in Robert Horry, while it's true he hasn't played all season, he probably has value as a playoff talisman alone. And if you planted him at the arc late in a playoff game, you would definitely stretch the defense.

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2. Who is likely to fade as the postseason approaches?

Ian Thomsen: Amar'e Stoudemire's injury is likely to set back the Suns, and the Magic without Nelson shouldn't be able to keep up with the East's top two. The Pistons' negative trend (6-16 in their last 22 games) shows no sign of turning the other way.

Jack McCallum: I just kind of gave it away when I said the Nuggets, but I'll let them share that "distinction" with Atlanta. An up-and-down team all season, the Hawks are not mature enough to hold that fourth spot in the East. Miami's Dwyane Wade will take them down at least a peg, and that's a big peg -- it will mean no home-court advantage in the first round.

Chris Mannix: The Rockets may won four in a row (including three at home against losing teams) since Tracy McGrady shut it down, but when they dealt Alston, they basically waved the white flag on the season. The objectives now are to evaluate whether Kyle Lowry or Aaron Brooks has the makings of a starting point guard and whether Ron Artest fits into the team's long-term plan. The Rockets will probably still make the playoffs (Stoudemire's injury pretty much locked in the top eight), but at this point, winning has become secondary.

Steve Aschburner: I can't see Orlando maintaining its pace with Alston in Nelson's spot. You don't just yank out one point guard and plug in another -- especially one who never has been known for smoothly orchestrating an offense, even if he did play as a reserve for Stan Van Gundy in 2003-04 -- without some sort of hiccups. I'm not picking on Alston for his Skip To My Lou persona; I'm just assessing the Magic's attack and the need for a legitimate playoff contender to come with more than Dwight Howard down low, a couple of guys at the three-point line and more dribbler than passer at the point.