Roundtable: Can Pitt win it all?

Led by steady ballhandlers like Chester Frazier, Illinois has had an assist on 72.5 percent of its field goals. AP

SI.com college basketball writers analyze the first part of the season.

1. Which team has surprised you the most?

Seth Davis: Butler.

Here's a team that lost four starters, including that great backcourt of A.J. Graves and Mike Green, they start three freshmen, and yet they're 12-1 with a win at Xavier. Butler does not get mentioned with Gonzaga because the Bulldogs haven't quite had a breakthrough in March, but their ability to consistently field high-level teams out of the Horizon League continues to amaze me.

Luke Winn: Illinois.

I know the Illini just lost at Michigan, but they're so much better than I expected, and could actually be a darkhorse contender in the Big Ten. The stat I love is that Illinois has an assist on 72.5 percent of its made field goals, by far the best rate in the country. All of the unsung ballhandlers -- Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Demetri McCamey and Jeff Jordan -- have assist-to-turnover ratios of over 2-to-1. The fact that Bruce Weber can coax such quality performances out of these guys makes you wonder why better guards have avoided Champaign for a few years. Why wouldn't you want to play for Weber when his offense makes you look this good? And now that the Illini have a bona fide wing scorer in Alex Legion, who may soon be hitting his stride after becoming eligible in December, they're even more dangerous.

Kevin Armstrong: Gonzaga.

It's not for the reasons that Cinderella usually draws attention. First, there was the Arizona loss. Then, there was the overtime thriller against UConn. They showed up for the big game, but the Huskies outlasted them. Both of those I could see, but the Portland State default should have grabbed the nation's attention. Throw in the true road loss to Utah and Mark Few is looking at the first four-game losing streak since December 2006 if the Zags fall tonight in Knoxville.

Bill Trocchi: Minnesota.

I projected the Gophers into the field of 65 for the mag's season preview, but I'm surprised I may actually be right. Tubby Smith's second team is 13-1 after a nine-point win over Ohio State. The Gophers may be a year ahead of schedule with no seniors among their top seven scorers.

2. Who's in your top five now?

Seth Davis: My AP ballot this week started like this: Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest, UConn.

You'll notice with all the talk of how great the Big East is, three of those teams are in the ACC. It was hard to figure just how much to penalize North Carolina for the loss to BC. I put Duke ahead of the Heels because I thought a road loss to Michigan was more respectable than a home loss to BC. But I'd have to say North Carolina is still the better team and remains the team to beat.

Luke Winn: My top five: Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke and UConn.

Putting the Panthers at No. 1 requires a small leap of faith -- you know they're really good, but they've only had one real test, in that 70-54 win at Georgetown. What choice are you left with, though, after Carolina laid an egg at home against Boston College? Even though the AP poll doesn't reflect it, I think the Demon Deacons have a solid case for No. 3, having beaten two solid NCAA tournament teams (BYU on the road, Baylor on a neutral court) without a loss.

Kevin Armstrong: Pitt, Duke, UNC, UConn, Wake Forest.

Forget UNC's loss. When the Heels show up in Winston-Salem, they'll bring their hustle (Tyler Hansbrough) and speed (Ty Lawson), but they may want to bring some kind of wedge to drive between marksman Al Farouq Aminu (13.0 ppg, 8.9, rpg 1.8 apg) and headliner James Johnson (13.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.5 apg).

Bill Trocchi: Hard to argue with the AP's choice of Pitt, Duke, UNC, Wake and UConn.

I've been a big fan of Wake since before the season started, and they have not disappointed. The Wake-Carolina game is going to be a must-see Sunday night.

3. Who's your pick for national player of the year?

Seth Davis: Until further notice, it is still Blake Griffin.

Tyler Hansbrough is going to make a strong case, but I don't think you should go with a player because he plays on a better team. (And if North Carolina is better than Oklahoma, it's not THAT much better.) Griffin is the best player in the country, and he doesn't have nearly as good a supporting cast as Psycho T. As much as I love Stephen Curry, it's not going to help him to get gaudy stats against low-level competition in the Southern Conference. When he had a chance to face the big boys, he was pretty poor against West Virginia and Purdue, though he'll have more chances pretty soon.

Luke Winn: Blake Griffin

If I had to choose between watching Griffin or Stephen Curry on TV, I'd pick Curry every time. But you can't ignore that he often gets 25-plus shots to put up his huge numbers, whereas Griffin is far more efficient while getting bludgeoned by opposing defenses inside. Big Blake also pulls down 14.0 rebounds per game to go with his 22.1 points, and has double-doubles in 12 out of 15 games.

Kevin Armstrong: Blake Griffin.

America, you can have Stephen Curry. Give me Jeff Capel's Spin Machine. Ready for a bruising conference campaign after an impressive non-conference run through the NIT, the double-double man (22.1 ppg, 14 rpg) is rested after playing just averaging just 24 minutes the last two blowouts. Hope Kansas State is even more rested Saturday.

Bill Trocchi: Blake Griffin

Griffin has nosed (and elbowed and shoved) his way past his chief competition -- Tyler Hansbrough and Stephen Curry. If Duke continues to roll, don't count out Kyle Singler, who leads them in points, rebounds and assists.

4. If UNC doesn't win it all, who does?

Seth Davis: The flavor of the week is Pittsburgh, but I'll still take UConn.

They were not prepared for what Georgetown threw at them, but Georgetown can do that to you. The Huskies still have Hasheem Thabeet to clog up the middle, and I think it was a good move to bump Stanley Robinson into the starting lineup. With Robinson, Thabeet and Jeff Adrien, that's a big-time front line.

Luke Winn: Pitt.

It's good to be Carolina this year, because the team that really should have the best chance -- the one that fits the formula of NBA athletes, size, and a deep, star backcourt -- is UConn, and UConn has no experience winning anything in the postseason. The Panthers may have slightly less talent top-to-bottom, but they have more experience (Levance Fields and Sam Young have three NCAA trips under their belts already) and seem to possess more of a killer instinct.

Kevin Armstrong: BC.

I kid, I kid. UConn. It's not their big men. It's not their guards. It's the complementary combination of the big (Hasheem Thabeet, Stanley Robinson) and the small (Jerome Dyson, A.J. Price, Kemba Walker). They're tough enough for the Big East, as displayed with their win over improving West Virginia, and have the guards to push the pace in March. This team is built for the long haul.

Bill Trocchi: Besides the usual suspects, I like Texas, Notre Dame and Syracuse, but the team that seems most capable of winning six straight when it counts is UConn.

They have the guard play, the defense and the athleticism to win it all, and a coach that knows his way around March Madness.

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