How did they do it? Ranking the teams that shattered expectations

By Peter Tiernan, bracketscience.com

I'm borrowing from some of the topics in Malcolm Gladwell's best-selling book Outliers to identify the teams in the 24-year modern tourney era who have achieved extraordinary success. These teams are what Gladwell calls statistical outliers -- squads that not only exceeded the typical performance of similarly seeded teams, but singularly shattered expectations.

Here is my countdown of the top ten teams that have been statistical tourney outliers since the dance expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

10. Sixteen-seed Murray State, 1990

As everyone well knows, no 16 seed has ever knocked off a top seed in the first round of the tourney. What makes the 1990 Murray State squad so remarkable is that they came the closest to accomplishing the feat. The Racers lost in overtime to Michigan State, 75-71. A case could be made that the 1989 Princeton Tigers deserve to be on the outliers list as well, since they nearly beat Georgetown, losing 50-49 after a disputed block/foul by Alonzo Mourning in the waning seconds. East Tennessee State also lost by just a point to Oklahoma, amazingly in the same year (how's that for outlying?). I have to give the nod to the Racers, though, since they pushed the Spartans all the way into overtime.

9. Top-seeded Purdue, 1996

Twelve top seeds have lost in the second round of the tourney, but none has struggled as much as the Boilermakers did in 1996. Not only did they lose to eight seed Georgia in round two, a squad that wound up bowing out of the dance in the very next round, but Purdue was taken to the brink in the first round as well. The Boilermakers barely edged out West Carolina, 73-71. No other top seed has performed so egregiously poorly in the 24 years of the modern era.

8. Four-seed Arizona, 1997

Only two four seeds have ever reached the Finals. Syracuse got there in 1996 and Arizona did the trick the following year. What makes Lute Olson's Wildcat squad so special is that they actually cut down the nets. This accomplishment made Arizona just the third team in the 24-year modern era to win the championship when seeded lower than three. The other two teams are coming...

7. Fifteen-seed Coppin State, 1997

Four 15 seeds have bumped off two seeds in the first round. So why is Coppin State singled out as an outlier when the 1991 Richmond, 1993 Santa Clara and 2001 Hampton squads don't make the list? Ron Mitchell's Coppin State squad is unique because they darn near made it to the Sweet 16, losing by just a single point, 82-81, to tenth-seeded Texas.

6. Fourteen-seed Cleveland State, 1986

Only two 14 seeds have reached the Sweet 16: Cleveland State in 1986 and Tennessee-Chattanooga in 1997. What makes Kevin MacKey's Viking squad stand out is that they came closest to reaching the Elite Eight, losing 71-70 to David Robinson's overachieving seventh-seeded Navy squad.

5. Twelve-seed Missouri, 2002

Only one 12 seed has reached the Elite Eight in the last 24 years. That would be Quin Snyder's surprising 2002 Missouri squad. The Tigers are a classic example of what Malcolm Caldwell describes as an opportunistic success story. Gladwell's contention is that, under the surface of every extraordinary success is an "accumulation of advantages" that helps explain the seemingly singular achievement. For Bill Gates, it was the fact that he has access to a computer way back in 1968 when practically zero kids his age did. For the Beatles, it was the fact that they were able to become proficient playing live music in Hamburg eight hours a day for seven days a week. And for the Missouri Tigers? Their deep tourney run began with a commonplace 12-seeded upset of a five seed (Miami, FL).

Then they beat fourth-seeded Ohio State, which had already struggled just to get by 13-seed Davidson. And that led to Missouri's biggest break. In the Sweet 16, when most squads in their half of the bracket must battle top seeds, the Tigers were spared the challenge. That's because eighth-seeded UCLA had already toppled one-seed Cincinnati. So Missouri had the opportunity to play a team much closer in seed differential to them -- and they beat the Bruins, 82-73. Of course, in the Elite Eight, the Tigers' luck ran out: they faced the highest seed from the other half of the bracket, second-seeded Oklahoma, and lost 81-75.

4. Eleven-seed George Mason, 2006

The most current team on the list of top ten outliers is one of two 11 seeds to have reached the Elite Eight. George Mason accomplished the unlikely feat three tourneys ago. In a moment, we'll see that the 1986 LSU Tigers are rated as a more extraordinary outlier. Why? Because George Mason had a slightly easier road to the Final Four than the Tigers. The Patriots' had to get by sixth-seed Michigan State in round one and third-seeded North Carolina in round two. But then they caught a break, as outliers so often do. They didn't have to face second-seeded Tennessee because the Volunteers had already been bumped off by Wichita State. George Mason got by the Shockers, then sprung an upset over a top-seeded UConn squad that had played unusually poorly in its first three games.

3. Eleven-seed Louisiana State, 1986

LSU's road to the Final Four was harder than George Mason's for the simple fact that they had to defeat the top three seeds in their bracket three seed Memphis, then two seed Georgia Tech and finally top seed Kentucky. The Tigers also performed better in their Final Four matchup, losing by just 11 points to Louisville, the eventual 1986 champ. Meanwhile, George Mason lost by 15 to eventual champ Florida.

2. Six-seed Kansas, 1988

Only two sixth-seeded teams have ever reached the finals?and one of them was the tainted Fab Five, which got waxed in the championship to Duke. The other six seed was Larry Brown's 1986 Kansas Jayhawks. Led by All-American Danny Manning, Kansas knocked off top-seeded Big 12 rival Oklahoma to take the crown. Along the way, the Jayhawks were the beneficiary of some unusual advantages...we've seen this before, haven't we? After a predictable win against 11 seed Xavier, Kansas was spared playing the three seed because 14 seed Murray State had upset North Carolina State. After that, the Jayhawks didn't have to play second-seeded Pittsburgh either. Why? Because seven seed Vanderbilt had sprung a round-two upset.

So once Kansas dispatched the lower seeded Commodores, they should've had to face the bracket's top seed. But guess what? One seed Purdue had lost to fourth-seeded Kansas State. So all the Jayhawks had to do to reach the Final Four was beat their in-state rival. Finally, before knocking off Oklahoma, Kansas had to get by Duke. But the Blue Devils weren't top seeds that year; they were two seeds. All in all, the Jayhawks path to cutting down the nets was surprisingly accommodating for a six seed.

1. Eight-seed Villanova, 1985

The fact that Villanova is the only eight seed ever to win the championship is reason enough to solidify their position as the top tourney outlier. But when you consider the difficulty of their road to the championship, the Wildcats' accomplishment is even more remarkable. After sneaking by ninth-seeded Dayton, 51-49, Villanova took down top-seeded Michigan by just four points. Then the Wildcats edged fifth-seeded Maryland by three points. To reach the finals, Villanova then had to get by second-seeded North Carolina -- and another two seed, Memphis State.

All that for the right to play the tourney's prohibitive favorite, Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas, which had beaten its tourney opponents by an average of 13.6 points a game. How did the Wildcats topple the giant Hoyas? Simply by playing a near-perfect game. Villanova shot 22 of 27 (81.5 percent) from the charity stripe and an amazing 22 for 28 (78.8 percent) from the field -- nine for 10 in the second half. It's very likely that we'll never see a more amazing performance in the modern tourney era than what Villanova accomplished in the very first year of the 64-team bracket.

Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 19 years. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket. Email him at bracketscience@comcast.net or visit bracketscience.com.