Mother lode or fool's gold?

Written by Matt Wirkiowski and Brad Rysz, RotoExperts.com, Special to SI.com

Courtney Lee scored eight points and hit a pair of three-pointers in his first start for the Magic vs. the Wizards. AP

Rotoexperts.com's Matt Wirkiowski and Brad Rysz discern which eye-opening talents are for real or merely flashes in the pan.

Brad: I hope the holidays treated everybody well and you got a chance to relax a bit and spend some time with loved ones. Between opening some presents (NBA Live '09 and Xbox Live ... yeah!) and eating a lot of food, I decided to take a look at the performances of the rookies this season. Needless to say, I found some startling results. While the Derrick Roses and Michael Beasleys of the world are universally owned, there is an excess of impressive, first-year players who are worthy of having a spot on fantasy rosters. Shockingly, most of them are likely to be found sitting on your free-agent list. Before we get to some players, Matt is going to tell us about his holiday season and how he thinks fantasy owners should approach rookie players at this point in the season.

Matt: I had a great holiday season! I enjoyed watching some Cavaliers basketball and college bowl games. Tragically, I do not have an Xbox Live, so I can't challenge anyone to NBA Live '09, but I still have my copy of Dr. J and Larry Bird Go One-on-One on my laptop, and I'll take on any comers in that game.

My view on second half breakout rookies is pretty simple. I look at rookies who have gotten some minutes in the first half, who play on bad teams. Then I look to see if there are any marginal veterans ahead of them on the depth chart. Those are the players I am most likely to target, as they are poised for a big second half. But you even have to look deeper than that. In the 2001-02 season, Gilbert Arenas played only 49 minutes through the end of January before getting more minutes in February, and earning the starting point guard spot in March.

This week, Brad and I will profile four rookies who have started to appear at the edge of fantasy owners' consciousness, and we'll analyze those players' chances of having a fantasy impact in '09. Brad, it looks like Mario Chalmers is first up, why don't you get things started?

Mario Chalmers, PG, Heat

2008-09 stats: 10.0 points, 4.6 assists, 1.9 steals (through Jan. 6)

Chalmers came into the NBA a hero after hitting the game-tying three-pointer with 2.1 seconds remaining in the '08 NCAA National Championship game. Scouts questioned his true position, as he had the size of a point guard, but rarely played the position during his three years at Kansas. Nonetheless, Miami made a commitment to him early in the season by giving him the starting position opposite of Dwyane Wade in the Heat backcourt. With 1/3 of the season complete, Chalmers has exceeded expectations and proven to be a valuable commodity in the fantasy world. Can he keep up his solid play? Matt and Brad have an opinion or two.

Brad: Despite being ranked inside the Top 100 (no. 85), Chalmers remained owned in only 52 percent of Yahoo! leagues. This is far too low for a player who is averaging 1.4 three pointers made and 1.9 steals. His 56 steals are good for seventh in the NBA and first among rookies. Chalmers combines quick hands with uncanny anticipation skills, which make him a force on the defensive end and the Mother Lode when it comes to steals. Despite sharing shots with Wade, Shawn Marion, and fellow rookie Beasley, Chalmers is averaging close to 10 points and connecting regularly from beyond the arc. At this point, it's safe to assume that Chalmers will contribute close to two steals, 10 points and nearly five assists per game. For somebody who is available in almost half of all leagues, Chalmers is literally a steal if you can grab him for one of your bench players. Fire some trade proposals away and see if you can nab this up-and-coming star immediately.

Matt: While Chalmers has had a nice start to his NBA career, and shown some good defensive intensity, he is sixth on the Heat in shot attempts, and is only shooting 42.1 percent the field, and 71.4 percent from the line. Additionally, because Wade is the main ball-handler, Chalmers will not see his assists go up anytime soon. In fact, over the past 30 days, Chalmers is 47th in total assists, so he's not helping you much in that category if you're starting him in a guard slot. Plus, you can expect that Beasley and Marion will be much more likely to get additional shot attempts before Chalmers. So what you are left with is a point guard who won't get you even five assists per game, who isn't a good shooter. Yes, his three point shooting and steal rates are good, but because of the way that the Heat are constructed, the chance that Chalmers will elevate his game and produce more meaningful fantasy numbers in '09 are pretty slim. At best, he is a bench player and occasional starter for your fantasy team which translates into Fool's Gold!

Courtney Lee, SG/SF, Magic

2008-09 stats: 5.9 points, 0.9 steals, 0.7 3PTM (through Jan. 6)

Lee entered the NBA after leading Western Kentucky to an improbable run to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAAs. He averaged more than 20 points per game and feasted on Sun Belt Conference opponents. Upon being drafted, Lee made his way to the NBA summer camps and continued his dominance by demonstrating a mid-range jumper that many rookies lacked. Stuck on the bench at the start of the season, Lee is finding playing time and making the most of his limited opportunities. Can Lee put it all together his first year, or will it take some time for the former college star to adjust to NBA life?

Brad: It's always difficult to rate a player who spends his college days beating up on lesser opponents. The Sun Belt Conference is hardly competitive, and Lee's superiority went unchallenged until the NCAA Tournament. Even then, the only top-level opponent he faced was UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen. Lee finished that game with 18 points on 7-for-29 shooting. What ultimately got my attention was the Orlando Pro Summer League, where Lee led the league in scoring and was added to the All-Tournament First Team. He was able to beat his opponents off the dribble and settle for 15-foot jumpers that he knocked down consistently.

Off to a hot start, Orlando was reluctant to mess with success and give Lee a chance. Recently, however, Lee has been given significant minutes and started his first game Tuesday. In the month of December, Lee was the 128th-ranked player, averaging 8.0 points and 1.1 steals while shooting 50 percent. For a player who is only owned in 2 percent of leagues, Lee is someone you can keep an eye on as the season progresses. At this point, his lack of playing time makes him Fool's Gold, but the promising guard is only an injury away from being thrown into the fire.

Matt: Lee may have played in a small conference, but he has big conference ability. Don't worry that he came out of the Sun Belt Conference. Kevin Martin came out of Western Carolina. What I like best about Lee's prospects in '09 is that he plays behind Keith Bogans. Bogans is a below 40 percent career shooter, has never averaged more than 10 points per game for a season, and is exceptional in no aspect of the game. Lee is a pure shooter, and can score from anywhere on the floor, and is as comfortable driving to the hoop as he is shooting jumpers. His main detriment to more playing time is his turnovers. He is extremely turnover-prone, and in college he had more turnovers than assists.

With Orlando, he has 20 assists and 17 turnovers. If Lee can keep his turnovers in check, while continuing to shoot the ball well -- he is shooting 45.1 percent from the field -- he should see consistent minutes sooner rather than later. Brad is correct, his current lack of playing time tags him as Fool's Gold, but I don't trust Bogans any further than I can throw him, so if you have room, stash Lee on your bench, because he could very quickly turn into the Mother Lode!