Mother lode or fool's gold?

Written by Matt Wirkiowski and Brad Rysz, RotoExperts.com, Special to SI.com

Paul Millsap's numbers as a starter this season should earn his a hefty contract in the offseason when he will be a free agent. AP

Rotoexperts.com's Matt Wirkiowski and Brad Rysz discern which eye-opening talents are for real or merely flashes in the pan by looking at four forwards whose values are changing.

Matt: We are getting to that point in the season where coaches are looking to tweak their lineups and redistribute minutes. For some players, this will result in an increase in minutes, while for others, it means more time on the pine. Coaches, as well as fantasy owners, also have to deal with injuries, and make the appropriate lineup moves to stay competitive. There's still plenty of time and games left for you to climb the standings in your fantasy league with the right moves. Fortunately for you, Brad and I are here to forecast the futures of four players whose roles are changing due to an injury, or their effectiveness (or lack thereof!). Brad, how are you dealing with the injuries on your fantasy team(s)?

Brad: I have had a frustrating year so far with unfortunate and nagging injuries to Kevin Martin, Chris Kaman and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. All three found their way onto more than one of my teams. Injuries are obviously frustrating, but that is exacerbated even further when one of your frontcourt players is forced to the sideline for a few games. Bigs are the prime source of rebounds and blocks, and you must have a viable replacement if one of your studs goes down. Basketball is a little different than football in that you can't necessarily "handcuff" a player, and there really aren't clear backups as many players play multiple positions. Let's take a look at this by using the Ilgauskas injury as an example to kick off our list of eye-opening bigs.

Anderson Varejao, PF/C, Cavaliers

2008-09 stats: 9.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.0 steals (Stats as of Jan. 12)

Varejao is one of the most recognizable players in the NBA due to his hairstyle and his propensity for drawing charges, or flopping, depending on your perspective. This is Varejao's fifth season with the Cavaliers, and with the injury to Ilgauskas, Varejao has been receiving more minutes, and will continue to receive additional minutes for the duration of Ilgauskas' absence. Varejao is an active player who is an excellent rebounder and defender, and despite being a below average free throw shooter, he is making a career best 65.1 percent of his freebies this season. Will the extra minutes translate into increased production, or will he be unable to maintain his energy level for 30 minutes or more game after game? Matt and Brad, what do you project out of Varejao going forward?

Matt: The Cavaliers recognize that Varejao has the ability to change the pace of the game when he enters off the bench. But with Ilgauskas out, they also need someone to man the center position at the beginning of the game, and that duty falls to Varejao. Varejao has started five games since Ilgauskas was injured, and he's averaged 15.2 points and 8.6 rebounds. Additionally, Varejao will get you one steal and just under one block per game. While his free-throw percentage isn't helpful, he is shooting 56.3 percent from the field. Ilgauskas is out for at least a month, and even when he returns, there's a good chance his minutes will be reduced. Target Varejao in your trade talks, as he is the Mother Lode!

Brad: If you own Ilgauskas, you are likely in search of replacing his 1.3 blocks, 7.1 rebounds and stellar 83.5 percent from the charity stripe. Varejao can help you in one of those areas: rebounds. In the last five games, Varejao is exceeding expectations, averaging almost 10 rebounds. However, the Sideshow Bob look-alike is not a factor in terms of swatting shots (0.7 per game) and as Matt mentioned, his 65.5 percent from the line is a big decline from what Ilgauskas offers. I think a solid alternative may be the aging Ben Wallace, who actually outperforms Ilgauskas at 1.8 blocks per game. Of course, he is a well-known clanker from the line (41.8 percent) and he is nonexistent on the offensive end. However, for those who came to rely on Ilgauskas' blocks, Wallace may be a better fit than Varejao. Mark me down for Fool's Gold when it comes to the crazy-haired Brazilian.

Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies

2008-09 stats: 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks (Stats as of Jan. 12)

Although Gasol was drafted by the Lakers in '07, he decided to play in Europe, and never appeared in a game for the Lakers. Halfway through last season, Gasol was part of a midseason trade which saw big brother Pau Gasol go from the Grizzlies to the Lakers. The younger Gasol is more of a classic center than Pau, as he has a wider body and better overall strength. Marc has a great opportunity to showcase his skills, since Darko Milicic is out at least four more weeks with a broken knuckle. Both Milicic and Gasol have started at center for the Grizzlies, and with no one else on the roster who is capable of playing sustained minutes at the five, it is now Gasol's show. So Matt and Brad, is Gasol ready for prime time, or will he struggle?

Matt: In my dynasty hoops league, once Gasol was traded to the Grizzlies last season I jumped on the opportunity and stashed him on my bench. Gasol's production has been good, shooting better than 50 percent from the field, while averaging 7.0 rebounds and 1.4 assists. He is also a good source of blocks and steals, and actually has higher per-game averages in those two categories than his brother, Pau. With Milicic out, Gasol will step up his production. In fact, he has scored double figures in his last six games, and had a double-double in three of those contests. If by some chance he is still available, follow the advice of our own Tommy Landry and grab him. Like Varejao, he is one to target in trade talks. In fact, I would target Gasol before Varejao, as he has more upside and better chance for long-term success. Gasol is most assuredly the Mother Lode!

Brad: Marc "Don't spell it with a K" Gasol has averaged 33.1 minutes in five straight games dating back to Jan. 2. The best thing going for him is that he is on a horrible team. The Grizzlies aren't going anywhere, and Gasol is a main cog in their future. They are dedicated to giving him playing time and letting him adjust to NBA-caliber talent. All young players go through growing pains (just look at Gasol's streak of five straight single-digit scoring games from Dec. 14-23), but it's important that they get the chance to play significant minutes and learn the ins and outs of the league. Owned in only 63 percent of Yahoo! Leagues, Gasol provides exceptional value and tremendous long-term potential. Scoop up this Mother's Lode immediately, and if he is currently rostered, throw out an offer of a bigger name to see if you can entice his owner.

Lamar Odom, SF/PF, Lakers

2008-09 stats: 8.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.21 steals (Stats as of Jan. 12)

In his 10th season, Odom is having his worst statistical year and playing a career-low 26.42minutes per game. Near the top of the league in the standings, the Lakers have been rolling through the competition and not relying on Odom to help. Has Odom's career taken a turn for the worse, or will he return to form as the season progresses?

Brad: Odom has had a strange season, going from a prominent member of the Lakers' core players to an underutilized role player. The most shocking statistics have been his decrease of 11 minutes of playing time and his 8.8 points per game. Known for his all-around stats, Odom was drafted early, and many owners are unlikely to drop him for fear of a resurgence. As a savvy owner, you must know that it's time to sell Odom based strictly on name recognition. His 61.1 percent from the free-throw line is the worst of his career and down from his career average of 70.5 percent. Similarly, Odom has hit rock bottom in assists (2.3 per game) and is approaching the bottom in rebounds (6.1). For whatever reason, Odom has fallen out of favor, and you can't take the risk of him turning it around. Odom is Fool's Gold, but you may be able to trade him before it gets worse.

Matt: I was looking at our draft and Odom was taken in the eighth round with the second pick. Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo were the next two picks. You think that the owner who tapped Odom would love to have that pick back? I'm sure virtually all of the owners who drafted Odom would like to have that pick back as well. Odom is averaging career lows in almost every category, although he is actually averaging a career high in steals per game, despite that dramatic decrease in playing time. The Lakers have lost faith in Odom to provide quality minutes, and so should you. I agree whole-heartedly with Brad, if you can move Odom and get something for it, do it now before his value slides even more, because Odom is Fool's Gold!

Paul Millsap, SF/PF/C, Jazz

2008-09 stats: 15.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks (Stats as of Jan. 12)

Stuck behind Carlos Boozer for two seasons, Millsap showed glimpses of potential, but couldn't crack the lineup. While Boozer has been out with a hamstring injury, Millsap has burst onto the scene. With very few below-average aspects of his game, Millsap is the 37th ranked player in Yahoo! Leagues and is somehow only owned in 85 percent of leagues. It's surely too late to pick him up, but should you pull some strings to make a trade for this 'Sap? Matt and Brad lend some advice.

Brad: I'll be honest; it's taken me a while to jump on the 'Sap bandwagon. The Jazz have a strong frontcourt and the severity of Boozer's injury was unknown. Now that he's out for a few more weeks, Millsap's playing time is not threatened. He missed three games with a knee injury, but returned to post his 17th, 18th and 19th straight double-doubles. An incredible feat in itself, he also finds a way to add 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks to his stat-line as well. Sometimes all it took was a chance and Millsap received that due to some injuries. Even when Boozer and Mehmet Okur return to full health, the Jazz will find room for this Mother's Lode. Don't be afraid to offer a top 100 talent to bring in this third-year rising star.

Matt: In February of 1985, Millsap was born. Four months later, the Jazz drafted a player out of Louisiana Tech by the name of Karl Malone. A little more than two decades later, in 2006, the Jazz once again drafted a forward out of Louisiana Tech. While Millsap is still far from the level of Malone, you can see the talent. Millsap is a great rebounder and post player who also provides blocks and steals, and has taken full advantage of this opportunity. Millsap has played 18 games since becoming the starter on Nov. 22, and as Brad pointed out, he has had 17 straight double-doubles. Harass the owner in your league until he trades you Millsap just to get you off his back, because he is the Mother Lode!

Brad and Matt want know who you are thinking about trading for. E-mail Matt at Wirkiowski@rotoexperts.com or Brad at brysz@rotoexperts.com and your trade could be featured in a future column.