Mother lode or fool's gold?

By Matt Wirkiowski and Brad Rysz, RotoExperts.com, Special to SI.com

With Mike D'Antoni in New York this season, Steve Nash has found opportunities to run and score a lot more limited in Phoenix. AP

Disappointed with your high draft picks this season? Do you wonder what went wrong? Read on and avoid those mistakes in the future.

Matt: You're ready for your draft. But even with all of the preparation, and evidence to the contrary, players pegged for greatness disappoint. I'm not talking about guys like Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand, whose numbers are down because of injury. That stuff happens. I'm talking about predictables. What did everyone miss? Was the player in question not ready to take that next step? Were they not as good as advertised to begin with? Did a coaching change, or change in philosophy negative impact that player? Brad and I will breakout our protractors and slide rulers to determine why these four players were mother lode before the season, but now appear to be fool's gold. But even more important, we'll tell you what you need to be on the lookout for going into next year's draft. We've got a tough task this week, Brad, are you up for the challenge?

Brad: You know I love a good challenge, Matt. Predicting that a player will regress is far more difficult than determining which players will breakout. Once a guy has reached a certain point, it can be expected that they will achieve, or surpass, that level while they are in their prime. I think you'll see from what we talk about below, that coaching changes, free agent acquisitions and incoming rookies all play a major role in a player's value. Similar to the NFL, much personal success is dependent on the "system" that an offense or defense runs, and how that specific player fits into that style of play. Steve Nash is someone we will talk about, but there's no question that he was the perfect point guard for the type of offense that Mike D'Antoni runs. Thus, he succeeded at elite levels. Matt, let's talk about some specific examples of four players who may not be "who we thought they were."

Rudy Gay, SF/PF, Grizzlies

2008-09 stats: 18.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 steals (stats as of Feb. 4)

Gay entered this season as the 29th-ranked player in Yahoo!, and was projected by most to take that next step into superstardom. However, Gay's numbers are down virtually across the board, and he currently resides at No. 75 in Yahoo! standard leagues. So what were the actual expectations, and what went wrong? Matt and Brad have the answers!

Matt: Like most, I got sucked into the Gay hype. He certainly appeared to be the mother lode entering the season. In fact, in one of my leagues I drafted him in the third round. That hasn't worked out so well. The expectation prior to this season was that Gay's numbers would improve on last year's when he averaged 20.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. So why was Gay expected to blossom? It seemed pretty simple. You had a young, athletic player entering his third NBA season, who had led the team in scoring the previous season, and due to a couple of trades, the two top scorers (Pau Gasol and Mike Miller) behind Gay from the 2007-08 season were gone in separate deals. No proven scorers were coming to the Grizzlies, although highly talented rookie O.J. Mayo was secured in the Miller deal. It looked like Gay was poised to be the man for the Grizzlies, and it certainly wasn't a shock to see his average draft position at 23 just before the season started.

Brad: Gay has not had a horrible year. In fact, he's just about where he was at last year. His points are slightly down, as are rebounds and blocks. The problem is that many expected him to go from a very good fantasy player to a superstar. So, what happened? Two words (maybe three?): O.J. Mayo. The dude is a scorer, plain and simple. As a rookie, he is averaging 19.4 points and 16.1 shot attempts per game. Playing one of the swingmen positions, Mayo is clearly cutting into Gay's production. Gay went from the premier scorer on the team to the second option. Keep an eye on mock drafts, and gather any information you can about the direction a team is hoping to head in the draft. Drafting Mayo didn't hurt Gay's value, but it definitely didn't help it either.

Jose Calderon, PG, Raptors

2008-09 stats: 13.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 8.6 assists (stats as of Feb. 4)

Calderon was ranked No. 25 overall by Yahoo! before the season, and while he has missed a few games, his ascension into the upper ranks hasn't been as swift as fantasy owners expected. So what has prevented Calderon from reaching greater heights of fantasy production? Let's check in with Matt and Brad and get the lowdown.

Matt: Calderon finished last season averaging 11.2 points, 8.3 assists, and 2.9 rebounds per game, while shooting over 50 percent from the field and over 90 percent from the foul line. With the offseason trade of T.J. Ford to Indiana, most felt that Calderon would show huge improvement, be one of the top fantasy point guards in the '08-09 season, and more important, be labeled the mother lode! The hope was that with a change of scenery, Jermaine O'Neal would regain some of his former production, and give Calderon another outlet for his passes. So what went wrong? Not as much as you think. Calderon's numbers have improved across the board, as he is scoring more, and he is averaging more rebounds, assists, three-pointers and free throws made per game. The disappointment is that the scoring and especially the number of assists haven't improved markedly. Certainly not what was expected of a player who went from a time-share situation last season, to the main point guard this year.

Brad: Calderon is similar to Gay, slight uptick in production, but not the full-blown, Dick Vitale-esque (ohhh baby!) breakout that was predicted. As you mentioned, Toronto made a ton of moves in the offseason by trading Ford and acquiring O'Neal. There is a definite learning curve to playing with new teammates, especially one who spends more time on the sideline than the court. What it shows me is that just because a player is given a starting role and more playing time doesn't mean it's going to automatically translate to success. The Raptors don't have many pure shooters, so that will always keep Calderon's assist numbers relatively low. I'd keep an eye out to see if the Raptors target a sharpshooting swingman at the trade deadline, or pick up a guy via free agency or in the draft next year. I'd suspect that next season, with a full year of playing 35 minutes, Calderon will take the next step in the scoring column. But, hey, you have to appreciate that 98.8 free throw percentage!

Steve Nash, PG, Suns

2008-09 stats: 13.9 points, 9.6 assists, 94.3 FT% (stats as of Feb. 4)

Nash lingered around seven assists per game in his six seasons with Dallas, but a move to Phoenix in '04 allowed his game to flourish. Similar to Devin Harris' emergence once traded to the Nets, Nash and the Suns were a match made in heaven. For four seasons, Nash averaged more than 10 assists per game and was routinely drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts. Now in his fifth season as a Sun, the wheels are finally starting to fall off. What happened to cause this sudden regression?

Brad: As recent as two years ago, Nash was a top-10 fantasy player, providing gaudy assist numbers, above-average scoring, and phenomenal shooting percentages for a guard. With the athleticism of Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, the Suns could run at will and Nash was the floor general. Head coach Mike D'Antoni recognized the superior talent on his squad, and implemented an offense that catered to Nash's game. This offseason, D'Antoni was allowed to take over the Knicks, and Terry Porter took over the reigns.

Unfortunately, Nash hasn't had the same effect on the offense. His assists (while still great) are down from 11.1 last year to 9.6 this season. He's attempting almost two shots less per game, which has resulted in a decrease of three points per game (16.9 down to 13.9). Currently sitting as the 56th-rated player in Yahoo! leagues, Nash is no longer the mother lode that had him consistently drafted in the first two rounds of drafts this year, but is it time to give up on him? Matt, fill our readers in how you can avoid this situation next year.

Matt: Well, back in October, I predicted that Nash would be a bust (or as we say around here -- fool's gold!) this year, so I can't say that I'm surprised at his numbers this season. I had pointed out that at that time two of the Suns starters were 36 or older (Shaquille O'Neal and Grant Hill), and Nash himself was 34. The ages of these players do not lend itself to a quick-paced style of play, and I suggested that Nash's number would drop. Which they did.

D'Antoni's departure hurt the Suns (and Nash) more than Marion's departure. D'Antoni is known for getting the most out of his point guards, and Nash has clearly suffered. Disagree? Look at Chris Duhon's numbers and get back to me. So what lesson have we learned that can help us prepare better for next year's draft? New head coaches have a direct effect on a team's pace. Research what that coach's tendencies are and draft accordingly. Going back to D'Antoni, look at the Knicks. They are averaging 7.4 more points per game than last season.

Josh Smith, SF/PF, Hawks

2008-09 stats: 16.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals (stats as of Feb. 4)

Smith missed 12 games at the start of the year due to a high ankle sprain, and has been solid since returning. The problem is that many expected last season's 19th-rated player to make a jump to the top echelon of fantasy greatness. He's clearly a dynamic defensive stalwart, but were we too quick to give him credit as a complete player? Matt and Brad give the 411 on Josh "get out my way" Smith.

Brad: I'll be honest, I've been singing Smith's praises for the last couple years now. I considered him to be a new version of Marion, one who contributes to almost every fantasy category. Let's take a look at just how filthy his stat line was from last year: 17.2 points, 2.8 blocks, 1.5 steals, 3.4 assists, 45.7 FG%. That, my friends, is man-crush material. Look up "mother lode" in the dictionary and you were bound to find a picture of one of Smith's high-flying dunks.

So why is Smith rated 128th in Yahoo! leagues? Some may blame it on the early injury, but that doesn't justify his ranking as the 87th-rated player this past month. The most shocking drop-off has been his blocks, where he's gone from 2.8 last year down to 1.6. There are a variety of reasons that can contribute to this, an ankle injury being one of them. But it could also be the extended playing time that Zaza Pachulia is receiving. Regardless, Smith isn't dominating like he once did. His free throw percentage is also at a career-low 60.7 percent, proving he is struggling in all aspects of his game. Matt, did you see this coming?

Matt: Brad, this one is puzzling for sure. He's scoring less, although he's shooting a career-high 49.5 percent from the field this year. However, he's shooting less free throws, and as you pointed out, making a lot less overall. Besides his blocks, his per-game rebounding and assist numbers are down, despite playing essentially the same number of minutes per game as he did last season. So why has he been fool's gold this season? If you remember, the Grizzlies signed Smith to an offer sheet, which the Hawks matched. There was buzz out of Atlanta that head coach Mike Woodson and Smith didn't exactly see eye-to-eye on a lot of issues. While I am certainly not suggesting that Smith is intentionally not playing his hardest because he's unhappy, perhaps subconsciously he's not happy, and as a result is not playing with the same reckless abandon. So what can we learn from this? Just as coaches can influence performance by pace, a poor coach-player relationship will be an issue as well. I will be more careful when looking at a player who is feuding with his coach, and wants out. That is for certain!

When Matt and Brad aren't haggling over fantasy basketball trades, they are busy scouting the next wave of NBA talent by taking in some college hoops.

Need help with your lineup or a trade offer? Shoot Matt an e-mail at Wirkiowski@RotoExperts.com or Brad at BRysz@RotoExperts.com.