David Ortiz: AP

By the time you read today's Clicks, I'll likely be celebrating my 64th straight hour without sleep -- all in the name of finishing SI.com's expansive fantasy baseball preview (due out next week, I believe). It's a massive undertaking, you know, writing all the different components, breaking into BALCO labs for research (my "cousin," the federal agent, to use an A-Rod term ... gave me the hookup), watching the MLB Network on a continuous loop, searching for hidden truths in managerial pressers at Spring Training on MLB.com, double-checking the monthly batting splits for every AA catcher in '08 on Retrosheet ... (deep sigh) but it's the only way I know how to survive in this dog-eat-dog world of fantasyland journalism. So, on with the show we go ...

Here's my early, early list of the top 14 designated hitters in 5x5 mixed leagues (HRs, RBIs, batting average, steals, runs). It goes without saying, this list is subject to change ... about a hundred times before April 1.

1. David Ortiz, Red Sox
2. Bobby Abreu, Angels
3. Jim Thome, White Sox
4. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
5. Pat Burrell, Rays
6. Billy Butler, Royals
7. Travis Hafner, Indians
8. Hank Blalock, Rangers
9. Jason Kubel, Twins
10. Jack Cust, Athletics
11. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
12. Jason Giambi, Athletics
13. Luis Montanez, Orioles
14. Adam Lind, Blue Jays

Using last week's "expert" practice draft on Mock Draft Central as the lone reference, here's a general idea of where/when we can expect the top DHs to come off the draft boards:

Round 5 -- Bobby Abreu, Angels (52nd overall)
Round 5 -- David Ortiz, Red Sox (56th overall)
Round 11 -- Jim Thome, White Sox (125th overall)
Round 13 -- Jason Giambi, Athletics (149th overall)
Round 15 -- Pat Burrell, Rays (178th overall)
Round 16 -- Travis Hafner, Indians (190th overall)
Round 17 -- Adam Lind, Blue Jays (193rd overall)
Round 18 -- Hank Blalock, Rangers (209th overall)
Round 21 -- Billy Butler, Royals (242nd overall)

Speaking of the SI.com & Friends baseball league, we've decided to avail our membership this season to one lucky Clicks reader (or unlucky -- depending on how you draft). Up until March 20, we'll be accepting short-essay submissions (limit 1-2 paragaphs, please) for the 14th slot in our small, but prestigious fantasy league (kind of like George Costanza). The requirements are simple: You need to be a passionate fantasy player (as demonstrated in the short essay), you need to have a computer (for the live draft sometime in late March or early April), you should enjoy posting humorous retorts on our league message board ... and, perhaps above all, you must be comfortable with accepting or declining blockbuster trade proposals during the graveyard-shift period of 2-6 a.m. -- the bewitching hours for all the Atlanta-based SI.com employees.

The powerhouse Red Sox may seem like mortal locks for 97 victories and an AL East title this season (leaving the Yankees and Rays to theoretically duke it out for the wild card) ... but the club's everyday lineup is hardly set in stone. Take the shortstop battle, for example, involving the incumbent Julio Lugo and hotshot prospect Jed Lowrie. Right now, from my seat in the dugout, it's too close to call ... which is why I have solicited the help of preseason annuals in declaring the eventual winner:

Fanball magazine
Lowrie: 10 HRs, 56 RBIs, 72 runs, 1 steal, .271 average
Lugo: 4 HR, 41 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 steals, .252 average

Beckett's/Rotoworld
Lowrie: 9 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs, 3 steals, .271 average
Lugo: 4 HR, 34 RBIs, 39 runs, 13 steals, .264 average

Fantasy Baseball Index
Lowrie: 7 HRs, 74 RBIs, 61 runs, 3 steals, .262 average
Lugo: 4 HR, 36 RBIs, 38 runs, 17 steals, .267 average

The Sporting News
Lowrie: 8 HRs, 73 RBIs, 81 runs, 4 steals, .278 average
Lugo: 4 HR, 44 RBIs, 55 runs, 20 steals, .263 average

Verdict: If you're only seeking straight steals from your shortstop, Lugo is obviously the way to go. But the consensus, across-the-board play lies with Lowrie, who has the greater fantasy ceiling and a decided advantage in HRs, RBI, runs and average.

... Here's my revised list of the top 25 shortstops in 5x5 mixed leagues (HRs, RBIs, batting average, steals, runs).

1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Michael Young, Rangers
5. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
6. Yunel Escobar, Braves (also has 2B eligibility)
7. Derek Jeter, Yankees
8. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
9. Mike Aviles, Royals (a major wild card come draft day)
10. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
11. Miguel Tejada, Astros
12. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
13. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
14. Cristian Guzman, Nationals (a lead-pipe cinch for .300 -- and nothing else)
15. Orlando Cabrera, Free Agent
16. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
17. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (I'm now convinced he'll win the BoSox job, straight up)
18. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
19. Maicer Izturis, Angels
20. Edgar Renteria, Giants
21. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
22. Jason Bartlett, Rays
23. Brandon Wood, Angels
24. Nick Punto, Twins
25. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays

Even in the seemingly objective world of fantasyland baseball, it's darn-near impossible to make draft judgments based solely on the numbers -- and not personal opinions (likes and dislikes). But, with the fantasy gods as my witnesses, I swear the following list of "Do Not Draft" players purely excludes the one-trick ponies (minus saves) and pitchers who are way too casual about their alarming walk rates:

Starting Pitchers
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
A.J. Burnett, Yankees
Andy Pettitte, Yankees
Ryan Dempster, Cubs
Ben Sheets, Free Agent
Gil Meche, Royals (I like the K's rate ... but the ERA is too cumbersome)
John Maine, Mets
Brett Myers, Phillies
Joe Blanton, Phillies
Bronson Arroyo, Reds
Randy Wolf, Dodgers (year-in, year-out ... he's eminently replaceable)
Oliver Perez, Mets
Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
Mike Pelfrey, Mets
Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays (the ERA keeps growing and growing)
Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays (his only drawback -- a low K/9 rate)
Joe Saunders, Angels (his numbers suggest a return to earth is imminent)
Kevin Millwood, Rangers
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins

Relief Pitchers
Brandon Lyon, Tigers (he'll get saves -- and that's it)
Brian Fuentes, Angels (as part of my pro-Jose Arredondo boycott)
Mike Gonzalez, Braves (he missed his window to be a dominant closer)
Aaron Heilman, Cubs (never been a big fan)
George Sherrill, Orioles (left-handed, soft-tossing closers normally don't last)
Fernando Rodney, Tigers (a shrinking violet when the pressure's on)
Eric Gagne, Free Agent (ditto for Big 'E')
Chris Perez, Cardinals (way too many walks to be a reliable closer)

In my neverending search to break down all the mind-numbing statistics that exist in fantasyland baseball, I stumbled upon a term that's easy to say but oh-so-hard to explain to the average fantasygoer: the V.O.R.P. ratio.

In its clincial definition (according to Baseball Prospectus), VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, is: "The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense."

Next week, I'll put a human face on a stat that only a sabremetrician could love.

Danny Granger: AP

Changing the subject to fantasy hoops ... so, you want to trade for Danny Granger (25.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.5 blocks, 88% FT on the season), in lieu of the torn tendon in his foot? And you're still willing to pay a steep price to add the East All-Star, eh? Well, I hope you brought your proverbial fantasy checkbook ... because here are the scenarios where Owner B would actually part with him: (Note: It goes without saying ... only shoo-in playoff teams should be mortgaging their short-term future to land Granger, via trade; after all, he'll be out at least three weeks.)

1-for-1 Trade Options
Manu Ginobili (the perfect SF/SG switcheroo involving injured stars)
Jeff Green (it's a risky move ... but you might want to pull the trigger)
LaMarcus Aldridge (you'll miss the PF/C versatility)

2-for-1 Trade Options
Leandro Barbosa/Jermaine O'Neal for Granger
Michael Beasley/Roger Mason, Jr. for Granger
Andray Blatche/Tayshaun Prince for Granger
Beno Udrih/Monta Ellis for Granger
Kevin Love/Rafer Alston for Granger

2-for-2 Trade Options
Stephen Jackson/Derrick Rose for Granger/Mike Bibby
Andre Iguodala/Kirk Hinrichfor Granger/Ramon Sessions

I make it a practice not to study the NBA standings before mid-February, simply because it's an exercise in futility. But with the All-Star break gone, now's a perfect time to forecast the division champions and respective conference-playoff participants ... courtesy of our friends at Accuscore:

Atlantic: Boston (64-18)
Central: Cleveland (63-19)
Southeast: Orlando (58-24)
Northwest: Denver (55-27)
Pacific: L.A. Lakers (64-18)
Southwest: San Antonio (53-29)

East Playoff Seeds
1. Boston (64-18)
2. Cleveland (63-19)
3. Orlando (58-24)
4. Atlanta (46-36)
5. Detroit (42-40)
6. Miami (41-41)
7. Philadelphia (39-43)
8. Chicago (38-44)

West Playoff Seeds
1. L.A. Lakers (64-18)
2. Denver (55-27)
3. San Antonio (53-29)
4. New Orleans (53-29)
5. Portland (50-32)
6. Houston (50-32)
7. Utah (48-34)
8. Dallas (47-35)

In a nutshell, here's why I no longer look at the NBA standings until mid-Feburary (FYI: the same stubborn timeline applies to Major League Baseball and mid-June, as well):

In November 2001, while driving home from a blind date (it bombed), I tuned into my beloved hometown Pistons on the radio. And during the broadcast, legendary announcer George Blaha had the audacity to say "If the playoffs were today," the 4-2 Pistons would have the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Yes, Detroit wound up eventually winning the mediocre Central five months later (and the East's top seed) ... but for Blaha to even suggest that a six-game sample size in early November had any relevance was truly laughable. (Sorry, George)

The All-Star weekend may be over, but that doesn't mean we have to stop the whole East-West competition thing. To wit, here are the best assist-men, by position, in the last 30 days:

Eastern Conference
PG -- Rajon Rondo, Celtics (the East leader with 10.3 during this period)
SG -- Joe Johnson, Hawks (a rock-steady, diversified performer)
SF -- LeBron James, Cavaliers (are you even shocked to see him here?)
PF -- Boris Diaw, Bobcats (advantage Charlotte in the Jason Richardson trade)
C -- Brad Miller, Bulls (so, THIS is why he was happy to leave Sacramento)

Western Conference
PG -- Steve Nash, Suns (thanks, in part, to a recent 21-assist game)
SG -- Mike Miller, Timberwolves (finally showing life after a dismal start)
SF -- Stephen Jackson, Warriors (you gotta love Golden State's run-and-gun attack)
PF -- Tim Duncan, Spurs (expected production from The Big Fundamental)
C -- Pau Gasol, Spurs (what's Spanish for "Son of the Big Fundamental"?)

After perusing the latest blog entry on NBA.com, I was struck by Dalton Del Lon's thoughts on Chicago's Tyrus Thomas and Memphis point guard Mike Conley. For starters, Del Lon has officially declared Thomas to be a certifiable fantasy beast (17.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.0 blocks in February) -- prompting me to momentarily regret a recent 2-for-2 blockbuster where I got Hawks Josh Smith and Mike Bibby for Thomas and Knicks guard Chris Duhon. There's just no way that Thomas can keep up his 78.4-percent pace at the charity stripe, right? (gulp)

Secondly, we have the curious case of Conley, the cat-quick Grizzlies guard whose game resembles Elliot Perry more than Kenny Anderson (other famous left-handed pointmen). And yet, over the last 20 days, Conley has averaged 14.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1 steal while mired in a time-share for minutes with Kyle Lowry and O.J. Mayo. Well, now that Lowry has been shipped to Houston ... I cannot help but wonder, Is now the perfect time to deal for Conley -- or have I already missed the boat on good trade value?

I cannot exit stage left from Clicks without honoring the 25th anniversary of Eddie Murphy, my boyhood comic idol, and his last appearance as a Saturday Night Live cast member (Feb. 23, 1984). With respect to John Belushi, Dan Aykroyd, Gilda Radner, Bill Murray, Billy Crystal, Christopher Guest, Chris Farley, Phil Hartman, Mike Myers, Tina Fey, Will Ferrell, Amy Poehler, among others, Murphy is the greatest comedic talent to ever grace 30 Rockefeller Plaza ... on a show that's been one of the pop-culture saving graces of my lifetime.

Through the magic of YouTube, Hulu and NBC.com, I've been able to track down some of Murphy's most popular skits ... although -- truth be told -- I wouldn't rank any of the following clips in my all-time Top 5; that aside, Murphy is pure comedy gold in each one.

1. Velvet Jones School of Technology
2. Who Shot Buckwheat? -- I've maintained for 20 years that Arsenio Hall is one of Buckwheat's bodyguards, shown just seconds after the assassination attempt.
3. "The Little Richard Simmons Show" -- I cannot look at a gray article of clothing without thinking of the classic quote: "Never wear battleship gray ... 10,000 sailors will want to board you."
4. "White Like Me" -- Truth be told, this clip stems from Murphy's only appearance as a non-cast-member host, circa December 1984. But it's too good to not show here.
5. "Prose and Cons" -- This SNL digital short is believed to be Murphy's final skit as a cast member. Spoiler alert: Be on the lookout for Terry McDonell, currently the managing editor for Sports Illustrated.