NBA fantasy lab

By Matt Satten, Dropping Dimes, Special to SI.com

In his second season, Kevin Durant has averaged 26 points, 6.6 rebounds and shot 43.6 percent from behind the three-point arc. Chris Graythen/Getty Images

This time of year, the majority of fantasy columns are about the latest hot pickup for the week ahead. The Fantasy Lab likes to think on a grander scale, though, not just one day, week, month or even season at a time. So it should come as no surprise that the focus today is on keeper leagues and all of the wonderfully different kinds of keeper prospects that exist in fantasyland. But even if you're not in a keeper league, this should help you immensely for the final weeks of the season and for preparing for next year's draft.

Newbies often ask, "What makes a great keeper?" There are obviously many different elements that go into determining this, but there are two that stand out above the rest: your personality as a fantasy owner and your league's rules. The problem with this is that The Fantasy Lab knows neither. And since these can be so vastly different, potential keepers have been grouped together in similar tiers, so these two factors can come into play and interact with the tiers versus forcing you to figure out a straight list of my keeper rankings and how you and your league fit in.

Determining your personality as a fantasy owner means asking yourself questions to figure out how you play the game. What players do you love? Who do you want to build your team around? Do you like big men or floor generals? What's your risk level? Do you like to make trades? These questions and more can help you figure out who to keep or who to target in trades to keep in the future.

As for the other elements that go into determining a great keeper, the Fantasy Lab could write a whole book about it, but some of the factors that have been weighed in coming up with these tiers include: age, experience, opportunity, position, team/coach and his style, career arc, trends, injury history, contract terms, replacement players (backups), off-court behavior and much more. Now that you know some of what has gone into grouping these potential keepers and non-keepers, let's start identifying them.

The cream of the crop

PG Chris Paul, SG/SF Kevin Durant, SF LeBron James, SG Kobe Bryant, PF Dirk Nowitzki

A winning fantasy basketball team is built on a rock-solid foundation. Any one of these seven players can be your foundation. Each player is unique, bringing a different skill set to the table; it's really a matter of personal preference as to how you want to construct your roster. No matter which direction you are fortunate enough to head in if you have one of these cornerstones in tow, just know you are starting off the 2009-10 season on the right foot.

Part of the reason for the tier system is to group similar players together, but it's also so the Lab doesn't have to explain each player specific rank. However, for this top tier only, the players are listed in the Lab's preferred order, but you can make a case for rearranging any of the names to be your top keeper choice. Depending on your scoring system, either Paul or LeBron could be atop the rankings, and both are still under 25 years old. Durant is only 20 years old and is quickly becoming a force across eight categories. He could win the scoring title next year while quite possibly becoming fantasyland's top player. Not to hype him up or anything. The Lab did that already in early January -- decreeing him the best keeper 22 years old or younger -- just before his ascent into top-five territory. Kobe is Kobe. And while it's true Dirk is getting older, he has "old man" skills that age well, so a loss of athleticism won't affect his game much. He's solid for another three years, easy.

Slight Imperfections

PG/SG Brandon Roy, PG Derrick Rose, PG/SG Dwyane Wade, F/C Amar'e Stoudemire, C Yao Ming, F/C Tim Duncan, PG Deron Williams, SG/SF Danny Granger, C Dwight Howard

Roy continues to improve in his third year and has no weaknesses in his game. It's really hard to knock him, but you have to keep in mind his injured heel and all the other young talent around him that could dip into his numbers ... Rose doesn't shoot three-pointers yet and his FT shooting has struggled, but he was thisclose to being included in the cream of the crop tier because of the expected improvement upon his vast talent and unreal athleticism at the PG spot. ... Wade still has turnover, three-point and FT percentage issues, but the real concern is the reckless abandon with which he plays. He's been injured too many times for my liking. Also, his pending divorce sounds pretty nasty and if it becomes a public spectacle, it could get ugly for Wade. Just something to keep in mind, but it's doubtful that any problems will manifest from this ... Stoudemire has had microfracture knee surgery and now serious eye surgery as well. Plus, his future in Phoenix is unsure. It shouldn't matter though; his talent will shine through no matter what situation he ends up in. ...

Yao is as solid as a California redwood, but he's been chopped down by season-ending leg injuries before. Time won't help his knees and feet when you're that tall and big ... Duncan has done the same thing for a decade plus and isn't slowing down at all. He's posting some of his best numbers in years, but he does have tendinitis in at least one knee and it's clear that his best days are behind him ... Deron Williams is a double-double guy in the John Stockton role in Jerry Sloan's offense. That means solid production for the next decade. If only he could be a better thief and hit more treys ... Granger was bound for the top tier, but this foot injury coupled with whispers about an old knee injury place him on this list, but that's the only reason and it's a flimsy one at best. Lastly, Howard. He's a centerpiece in every way imaginable. Too bad he'll sink you in FT percentage and turnovers, too. If you can live with that, there's a whole lot of Dwight to love.

Steady but unspectacular

F/C Pau Gasol, F/C Chris Bosh, SF/PF Kevin Garnett, PG/SG Joe Johnson, SG/SF Andre Iguodala, SG Kevin Martin, PG Tony Parker, PG Jose Calderon, SG/SF Hedo Turkoglu

Pau should be in the group above, but he's held back for a couple of reasons. The first is his penchant for getting injured. The second is the continued development of Andrew Bynum alongside him. But most important, it's the decrease in blocks. After reaching a career-high of 2.1 bpg just two years ago, Pau is down to just 0.9 rejections per night ... Bosh is the same way. He's all points, rebounds and FT shooting. The blocks have dried up, his knee is a bit balky and he could go from Alpha Dog to second fiddle as a free agent after next season ... Always a picture of health, KG has dealt with injuries each of the past two years. Plus, he's sharing the load in Boston ... JJ is still holding court in Atlanta, but will 2006-07 prove to be his career year? It's looking that way now ... Iguodala stepped his game up to another level this year, but that was only after Elton Brand's season ended and he stopped stifling Iguodala. What happens when he returns next year?

The team fell apart around him, but Kevin Martin is still scoring like a rock star. He doesn't bring much help in the peripheral categories, but the FT percentage, threes and points make him worth keeping ... The Spurs' Parker gives you points and some assists, but he doesn't shoot threes and never will, nor does he thieve, board or block shots ... Calderon has played just four years in the league, but he'll be 28 when next season starts. His percentages are high, but he needs to shoot more for them to have an impact ... Turkoglu is Orlando's go-to guy in the fourth, but he's thinking of opting out to test the free-agent waters. Going elsewhere could cut into his production, plus he won't have the same drive that helped land him his big contract.