Fantasy Clicks: Joe Versus The Volcano Of Expectations

Joe Flacco: Damian Strohmeyer

In eight years of playing fantasy football -- spanning some 60-plus leagues -- I have drafted wide receiver Derrick Mason exactly once (the 2008 SI.com & Friends league) ... and that was partly out of Michigan State loyalty. But in the last few months, I've really come to appreciate Mason's remarkably consistent fantasy gifts: Want someone in Round 10 who'll catch 80 passes? Mason's your man. Craving an unheralded near-lock for 1,000 yards -- no matter who's throwing him the ball? Go with Mason. Looking for a wideout who gets to face the Swiss cheese-like pass defenses of Kansas City, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Denver and Detroit in the same season? Once again, Mason's the man for the job!

All this Mason-love naturally turns thoughts to Ravens QB Joe Flacco (2,971 passing yards, 14 TDs) and his fantasy prospects for '09. On one hand, the second-year star (and only QB in NFL history to win two playoff games as a rookie) is blessed with a potentially explosive three-headed rushing monster (Ray Rice, Le'Ron McClain, Willis McGahee), two solid veteran tight ends (Todd Heap, L.J. Smith) and the redoubtable Mason (averaged 86 catches from 2003-08) leading the receiving corps. But is that enough for the Ravens to maintain their lofty standing amongst the AFC elite? Will it be sufficient for Baltimore getting past archrival Pittsburgh in the AFC North race? Hmmm ... seems like a perfect time to gauge Flacco's fantasy potential, Revelations-style:

What He'll Like: McClain (505 rushing yards, 9 TDs), McGahee (762 total yards, 5 TDs) and Rice (1,020 total yards, 4 TDs) all brought tangible goodness to the Ravens' ground attack last year. And given the continuity of the Baltimore coaching staff, it's easy to imagine the troika enjoying similar roles in '09. After all, who could forget McClain's Bo Jackson-like bull rush of a Steelers defender at the goal line to score a TD on Monday Night Football? And who could block out McGahee's sterling 77-yard scoring run against the Cowboys last season -- capping off one of the craziest fourth quarters in NFL history? That aside, Rice likely possesses the greatest ceiling of production ... and could easily show flashes of Brian Westbrook Jr. in Year 2 -- by racking up at least 700 rushing and receiving yards.

What He'll Like, Part II: Both tight ends have been maligned for various reasons in recent years, but Heap (injuries) and Smith (inconsistent production) could become a rock-steady component to the Baltimore passing game, as a tandem. The week-to-week competition alone should stoke the fires of these proud and still-in-their-prime vets -- none of whom has ever caught more than 75 passes in a season. But overall catches can be deceiving here: Their fantasy goodness should only be measured in quality red-zone opportunities.

What He'll Love: With Jared Gaither and first-round pick Michael Oher bookending the Ravens' underrated offensive line, Flacco will likely be given extra time (even if it's another half-second) to make better throws downfield. It also helps that McClain is a top-notch blocking fullback.

What He'll Love, Part II: Mason and Isaac Bruce are the only 35-and-over receivers I'd consider drafting in August (sorry, Joey Galloway). While the NFL is certainly a young man's game, these graybeards have hardly lost a step against some of the league's biggest, fastest and smartest cornerbacks. Besides, I still cannot shake the memory of Mason's 8-catch, 137-yard performance in Week 4 against the Steelers -- Flacco's unofficial breakout party. He's the perfect WR4 in standard-scoring leagues.

What He Could Love: In the last two preseasons, I have read glowing reports of how wide receiver Demetrius Williams was on the cusp of fantasy greatness ... only to see him finish with a pedestrian 42 catches in 2007-08. But there's no doubting the kid's superior athleticism -- maybe he just needs a consistent force like Flacco to make a seismic leap in '09.

What Could Blow His Mind: Unless you've been sitting on a beach for the last three days, drinking tropical drinks without a care in the world ... you've undoubtedly heard that Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (206 catches in the last two years) is extremely unhappy with his current contract and has asked to be traded. Even more interesting, the Denver brass will reportedly grant that request in the coming weeks, leaving plenty of media experts to identify Baltimore as the perfect landing spot for Marshall. Now, this is all conjecture right now ... but could you imagine the Ravens offense with B-Marsh and Mason sharing the primary pass-catching duties, with Williams, Mark Clayton and Yamon Figurs running less-pressurized patterns against perpetual single coverage? Dare to dream!

You have to love the people at Fantasy Football Calculator. The calendar may read only June 17, but FFC is already hard at work, trying to make mathematical sense of this year's top fantasy football prospects. In fact, this site represents the perfect one-stop shopping for mock drafts and the Average Draft Position tool (ADP) -- perhaps the best learning aid for NOT reaching during the August drafts. Speaking of ADP, here's a list of quarterbacks likely earmarked for Rounds 1-10 (12-team leagues), if a draft were held today:

Drew Brees, Saints -- Round 2, Pick 4
Tom Brady, Patriots -- Round 2, Pick 7
Peyton Manning, Colts -- Round 3, Pick 5
Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- Round 4, Pick 9
Philip Rivers, Chargers -- Round 4, Pick 10
Kurt Warner, Cardinals -- Round 4, Pick 10 (dead heat)
Tony Romo, Cowboys -- Round 5, Pick 10
Donovan McNabb, Eagles -- Round 6, Picks 1
Matt Ryan, Falcons -- Round 6, Pick 11
Matt Schaub, Texans -- Round 7, Pick 4
Jay Cutler, Bears -- Round 7, Pick 10
Carson Palmer, Bengals -- Round 8, Pick 1
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers -- Round 9, Pick 1
Matt Cassel, Chiefs -- Round 9, Pick 7
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks -- Round 9, Pick 9
Kyle Orton, Broncos -- Round 10, Pick 7
Trent Edwards, Bills -- Round 10, Pick 11

... To announce the impending arrival of Sports Illustrated's GIGANTIC fantasy football spectacular, hitting magazine racks nationwide on June 25. This 168-page blowout is chock-full of rankings, columns (two from yours truly), features, draft-day advice, in-season strategies, booms, busts and an experts' mock draft, enlisting an army of SI's award-winning fantasy and NFL writers (including Peter King). Last but not least, it boasts perhaps the coolest cover of any fantasy magazine you'll ever see!

Am I overselling it a little bit? Perhaps. But I'm quite confident SI's first extensive foray into fantasy football -- dare I say, one of the few recession-proof billion-dollar entities -- becomes an all-time best seller ... and now you've been warned. Ha!

Here are my revised backup-QB rankings for standard-scoring leagues, from No. 1 (Tyler Thigpen) to No. 32 (Caleb Henie). Unless Matt Cassel sets the NFL world on fire in '09 (which I don't think will happen), Thigpen will likely be called upon to save the Chiefs in at least three or four games:

1. Tyler Thigpen, Chiefs
2. Derek Anderson, Browns
3. Seneca Wallace, Seahawks
4. Sage Rosenfels/Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings (contingent on Brett Favre's arrival)
5. Vince Young, Titans (assuming his head's in the game)
6. J.T. O'Sullivan, Bengals (a perfect fit in Cincy)
7. Chris Simms, Broncos
8. J.P. Losman, Bills (he can beat out Gibran Hamdan, right?)
9. Kevin Kolb, Eagles
10. Dan Orlovsky/Rex Grossman, Texans
11. Matt Leinart, Cardinals (the new MMA king of Scottsdale)
12. Jeff Garcia, Raiders
13. David Carr, Giants
14. Josh McCown, Panthers
15. Josh Freeman/Byron Leftwich/Brian Griese, Bucs (assuming Josh McCown's the starter)
16. Kellen Clemens, Jets (assuming El Terrifico starts in Week 1)
17. Matthew Stafford, Lions (the greatest fantasy potential of anyone on this list)
18. Kyle Boller, Rams
19. Alex Smith, 49ers
20. Chad Henne/Pat White, Dolphins
21. Billy Volek, Chargers (the "rust" factor justifies this low ranking)
22. Cleo Lemon, Jaguars
23. Brooks Bollinger, Cowboys (a slight upgrade over Brad Johnson)
24. Todd Collins, Redskins
25. Troy Smith, Ravens
26. Kevin O'Connell, Patriots (should probably be higher on the Pats' reputation alone)
27. Jim Sorgi, Colts
28. Mark Brunell, Saints (thank goodness for Drew Brees' durability, eh?)
29. Chris Redman, Falcons
30. Charlie Batch, Steelers
31. Matt Flynn/Brian Brohm, Packers
32. Caleb Henie, Bears (listed here for obvious reasons)

Quarterbacks are the make-or-break assets of fantasy football -- especially if you reached way, way too early on one -- but they're not all created equal. To wit, the QB tier system for fantasy drafts, some of which begin in about six weeks:

Tier 1 (4,350 total yards and/or 34 TDs)
Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner

Tier 2 (4,000 total yards and/or 30 TDs)
Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb

Tier 3 (3,600 total yards and/or 27 TDs)
Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Brett Favre (should he come out of retirement -- wink, wink)

Tier 4 (3,250 yards and/or 23 TDs)
Jason Campbell, Trent Edwards, JaMarcus Russell, Joe Flacco, David Garrard, Chad Pennington, Kyle Orton, Jake Delhomme, Shaun Hill, Marc Bulger

Tier 5 (2,850 yards and 17 TDs)
Daunte Culpepper, Mark Sanchez, Brady Quinn, Sage Rosenfels, Kerry Collins

Tier 6 (Does it really matter how they perform?)
Matthew Stafford, Tarvaris Jackson, Josh Freeman, Luke McCown, Derek Anderson, Tyler Thigpen, Byron Leftwich, Kellen Clemens, Vince Young, Pat White, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, Matt Leinart, Kyle Boller, Seneca Wallace, Rex Grossman

While reading Rotoworld's preseason fantasy magazine (the brainchild of fellow Fantasy Football Writer of the Year Gregg Rosenthal), I came across an interesting argument against Michael Turner as a high Round 1 pick. At face value, no one is disputing Turner's greatness from last season with the Falcons (1,699 rushing yards and 17 TDs). But after registering 382 touches (including six catches) for a surprising Wild Card club (especially after the Michael Vick debacle), he is now eligible for "induction" into the The Curse of 370 Club ... which means he'll likely be a fantasy disappointment in '09.

Simply put, Rotoworld ascertains that "running backs that take the rock 370 or more times in a given season (or 390 or more times in a season that includes a playoff run) tend to suffer an injury, a dramatic fall from grace shortly thereafter or a combination of the two." From Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and Curtis Martin to Eddie George, Edgerrin James and Terrell Davis, a long list of productive running backs have experienced a stunning decline in numbers the following season after 370 touches -- often without any warning, either. In fact, in the modern era, only LaDainian Tomlinson, Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson have managed to beat the proverbial curse right after hitting 370.

To be fair, Turner only had 228 total rushes in the previous four seasons with San Diego (2004-07) ... so he definitely has the legs of a 23-year-old back in a 27-year-old NFL body. So who's to say he'll immediately be affected by last season's Herculean workload? And who's to say Turner cannot score even more touchdowns this year, with slightly fewer carries? After all, he may be the league's biggest red-zone lock, ahead of LT, DeAngelo Williams and Adrian Peterson.

On our weekly radio show last week, my SI.com cohort Jeff Ritter and I had a spirted -- and sometimes heated -- debate about Tom Brady, LaDainian Tomlinson and Terrell Owens ... and their expected production this season. All this leads me to the following question, for which I insist on getting Clicks-reader feedback:

Who's the biggest lock to attain the following stats:
Brady throwing for at least 4,300 yards and registering 35 total TDs? ...
LT rushing for at least 1,350 yards and tallying 13 total TDs? ...
T.O. accounting for at least 1,150 yards and 11 TDs?

Trent Edwards: AP

On the surface, it seems a tad unfair to compare Trent Edwards and Chad Pennington (3,653 passing yards, 19 TDs last season) in fantasyland, simply because Edwards calls Buffalo home ... and Pennington gets to throw every home pass in typically serene south Florida weather (minus hurricane-like conditions). But still, I just have to know which AFC East QB is the stronger fantasy play on a week-to-week basis. Here are my findings:

Week 1 -- Edwards (@ New England) over Pennington (@ Atlanta)
Week 2 -- Edwards (vs. Tampa Bay) over Pennington (vs. Indianapolis)
Week 3 -- Edwards (vs. New Orleans) over Pennington (@ San Diego)
Week 4 -- Pennington over Edwards head-to-head at Miami
Week 5 -- Edwards (vs. Cleveland) over Pennington (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Week 6 -- Edwards (@ N.Y. Jets) over Pennington (BYE)
Week 7 -- Pennington (vs. New Orleans) over Edwards (@ Carolina)
Week 8 -- Pennington (@ N.Y. Jets) over Edwards (vs. Houston)
Week 9 -- Pennington (@ New England) over Edwards (BYE)
Week 10 -- Pennington (vs. Tampa Bay) over Edwards (@ Tennessee)
Week 11 -- Edwards (@ Jacksonville) over Pennington (@ Carolina)
Week 12 -- Edwards over Pennington head-to-head at Buffalo
Week 13 -- Pennington (vs. New England) over Edwards (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Week 14 -- Edwards (@ Kansas City) over Pennington (@ Jacksonville)
Week 15 -- Pennington (@ Tennessee) over Edwards (vs. New England)
Week 16 -- Edwards (@ Atlanta) over Pennington (vs. Houston)
Week 17 -- Edwards (vs. Indianapolis) over Pennington (vs. Pittsburgh)

Verdict: Remarkably, Edwards pulled out a 10-7 win over Pennington, despite having three cold-weather games in the final five weeks. Of course, it helps that Edwards has Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish at his disposal; and it most certainly helps that Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes should trump Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in overall rushing output. On the flip side, Pennington gets the nod for Week 15 -- typically the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs ... which means he could be a true difference-maker in your pursuit of a fantasy championship. Wow!

Just like Fantasy Football Calculator, the eggheads at Fantasy Football Toolbox are off and running with unique takes on the upcoming season. And I wanted to call special attention to two intriguing pieces:

The first one, authored by Daniel Kalles, offers 10 Fantasy Dark Horses for '09. The second article, penned by Jeb Gorham, reveals the pre-eminent comeback candidates -- featuring Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who could very well be the greatest QB draft steal of the season.

In Points Per Reception leagues, I almost always draft a QB and the No. 1 wide receiver from the same team. In the biz, it's known as "handcuffing" ... which simply means every time your quarterback (say Tom Brady) completes a pass or TD-score to Randy Moss, the fantasy owner would earn double the points. The downside to this strategy, of course, lies in that rare game when the quarterback throws for only 130 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Odds are your wide receiver caught only a few passes and had little or no fantasy impact on that day. For the most part, though, handcuffing is a sneaky-good way to fantasy greatness, especially when you have the right weapons at your disposal. Here are the NFL's best QB-WR handcuffs in PPR leagues for the '09 season:

1. Tom Brady/Randy Moss, Patriots
2. Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson, Texans
3. Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
4. Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
5. Tom Brady/Wes Welker, Patriots
6. Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne, Colts
7. Daunte Culpepper/Calvin Johnson, Lions
8. Drew Brees/Marques Colston, Saints
9. Matt Cassel/Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
10. Carson Palmer/Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
11. Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith, Panthers
12. Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings, Packers
13. Ben Roethlisberger/Hines Ward, Steelers
14. Drew Brees/Lance Moore, Saints
15. Trent Edwards/Terrell Owens, Bills
16. Matt Hasselbeck/T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks
17. Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall, Broncos
18. Chad Pennington/Greg Camarillo, Dolphins
19. Matt Schaub/Kevin Walter, Texans
20. Trent Edwards/Lee Evans, Bills

Here's the best way to ensure a great handcuff on fantasy draft day -- without "reaching" for talent: By waiting until Rounds 7/8/9 to draft a quarterback (especially in 10- or 12-team leagues), you've afforded yourself time to pair an underrated QB with any one of your top-shelf receivers from the earlier rounds. Last year, for example, I deftly grabbed Broncos WR Brandon Marshall in Round 4, and then waited until Round 9 to take Jay Cutler. By season's end, Marshall would rack up 104 catches, 1,265 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while Cutler amassed 4,526 passing yards and 25 TDs.

Had I taken a QB in the first three rounds (like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo), I would've had to disrupt the flow of my entire draft board just to get Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston or Terrell Owens (then of the Cowboys), as the second part of the QB-WR handcuff. The morale to the story: The best fantasy teams are built throughout the entire draft -- not just the first five rounds.

Come August, let's pretend you have the No. 3 overall pick in a 10-team, standard-scoring league ... and subsequently, the No. 18 pick on the turnaround. And let's say you're primed to grab Falcons RB Michael Turner in Round 1 and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald in Round 2. Sounds like a great plan ... until you realize both Turner and Fitzgerald share the same bye period, Week 4. Would you be comfortable with having two elite talents sitting out the same week, or would you prefer to miss their fantasy goodness in staggered weeks? This is a debate we'll tackle in future football Clicks; in the meantime, here's the 2009 bye schedule, along with the impacted fantasy stars:

Week 4: Cardinals (Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner, Wells, Urban, Breaston, Hightower, Pope), Falcons (Turner, Ryan, White, Jenkins, Norwood, Gonzalez), Panthers (Williams, Stewart, Delhomme, Muhammad, Smith, Dawson, Jarrett), Eagles (McNabb, Westbrook, McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Curtis, Avant, Celek)

Week 5: Bears (Cutler, Forte, Peterson, Bennett, Hester, Olsen), Packers (Rodgers, Grant, Wynn, Jennings, Driver, Jones, Lee), Saints (Brees, Bush, Thomas, Colston, Moore, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, Miller), Chargers (Rivers, Tomlinson, Sproles, Jackson, Chambers, Floyd, Gates, Davis)

Week 6: Cowboys (Romo, Barber, Jones, Choice, Williams, Hurd, Crayton, Witten, Bennett), Colts (Manning, Addai, Brown, Wayne, Gonzalez, Collie, Clark), Dolphins (Pennington, Brown, Williams, Camarillo, Ginn, Bess, Fasano), 49ers (Hill, Crabtree, Gore, Robinson, Coffee, Bruce, Davis, Morgan)

Week 7: Ravens (Flacco, McGahee, McClain, Rice, Mason, Clayton, Heap), Broncos (Orton/Simms, Marshall, Royal, Stokley, Scheffler, Moreno, Buckhalter, Jordan, Hillis, Torain), Lions (Culpepper/Stafford, Smith, Johnson, Johnson, Curry, Pettigrew), Jaguars (Garrard, Jones-Drew, Washington, Northcutt, Holt, Lewis, Dillard, Walker, Williamson), Seahawks (Hasselbeck, Jones, Duckett, Burleson, Branch, Houshmandzadeh, Payne, Carlson), Titans (Collins/Young, Johnson, White, Gage, Thorpe, Washington, Scaife)

Week 8: Bengals (Palmer, Benson, Johnson, Leonard, Dorsey, Ochocinco, Simpson, Crosby, Urrutia), Chiefs (Cassel/Thigpen, Johnson, Charles, Cottam, Bowe, Engram, Bradley), Patriots (Brady, Taylor, Maroney, Morris, Moss, Welker, Galloway, Smith), Steelers (Roethlisberger, Parker, Mendenhall, Ward, Sweed, Holmes, Miller), Buccaneers (Johnson/Griese/Leftwich, Graham, Ward, Williams, Winslow, Clayton, Bryant), Redskins (Campbell, Portis, Betts, Moss, Cooley, Thomas, Kelly, Randle El)

Week 9: Bills (Edwards, Lynch, Jackson, Rhodes, Owens, Evans, Hardy, Reed, Parrish), Browns (Quinn, Anderson, Lewis, Edwards, Robiskie, Heiden, Royal, Harrison, Furrey, Cribbs), Rams (Bulger, Jackson, Avery, Burton, Robinson, Klopfenstein, Darby, Pittman, McMichael), Vikings (Rosenfels, Peterson, Harvin, Taylor, Berrian, Rice, Shiancoe), Raiders (Russell, McFadden, Fargas, Bush, Heyward-Bey, Walker, Schilens, Miller), Jets (Clemens, Washington, Jones, Greene, Stuckey, Cotchery, Keller, Clowney)

Week 10: Texans (Schaub, Johnson, Walter, Slaton, Daniels, Green), Giants (Manning, Hixon, Hicks, Boss, Jacobs, Bradshaw, Toomer)

Leave it to notorious comedian Artie Lange to steal the ENTIRE spotlight from Brett Favre in the series premiere of HBO's Joe Buck Live on Monday night. Before Lange repeatedly crossed the boundaries of good taste with filthy jokes and too-hot-for-regular-TV punchlines -- some even questioning Buck's manhood -- the entire show had been built around Favre's implied admission that he would be making a second post-retirement comeback, this time with the Vikings. But who cared about that ... after watching Lange hijack the show with a brand of sophomoric humor eerily reminiscent to Bobcat Goldthwait burning a couch on The Tonight Show (circa 1992) or reprising the same role on HBO's The Larry Sanders Show.

Speaking of Bobcat ... I caught one of my favorite movies from the 80s on Sunday, Police Academy 2. For Clicks readers in their 20s, especially those who love to unearth great comedies, here's a list of the Most Quotable Underrated Movies of the 1980s:

1. Real Genius (starring Val Kilmer) -- "Pacific Tech presents ... smart people on ice!"
2. Spinal Tap (Christopher Guest/Harry Shearer) -- you'll never think of the number "11" the same way again
3. European Vacation (Chevy Chase) -- "I believe the pyramidial tracks are a housing development outside of Cairo"
4. Police Academy 2 (Steve Guttenberg/Art Metrano) -- "What? You've never seen a man wash his hair before?"
5. Amazon Women on the Moon -- "I found the movie to be a light, frothy soufflé ... whereas you saw it as pond scum"
6. Spaceballs -- (Mel Brooks/Rick Moranis -- "We ain't found (s--t)!"
7. Back To School (Rodney Dangerfield) -- "Why don't you call me some time when you have no class?"
8. Naked Gun (Leslie Nielsen) -- "No, I'm talking about good, clean love ... without utensils!"
9. National Lampoon's Vacation -- "Personally, I'd rather see a giant ball of mud ... then your cousin Eddie"
10. Police Academy 3 -- "And you know what Capt. Mauser said to me? 'It'safactahemahoa'"

Now that I've said my peace on Artie Lange, Brett Favre and Trent Edwards ... it's time for a little siesta away from Clicks and life, in general. But I'll be back on June 29 ... provided nothing unforeseen occurs at my bachelor party in Put-In-Bay, Ohio this weekend. So long!