Get EA SPORTS NBA Live Video Game for $49!  Subscribe to SI Give the Gift of SI
SI.com HomeA CNN Network SiteSI.com Home
Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball and More
Columns and Blogs | Message Boards | NFL Player News | MLB Player News | NBA Player News | NHL Player News
Posted: Tuesday June 23, 2009 12:33PM; Updated: Tuesday June 23, 2009 12:47PM

NFL Fantasy Forecast: Why to always take a WR1 over a WR3

Story Highlights

WR3 Steve Breaston (Cardinals) outperformed the WR1 of 12 other NFL teams

Trying to predict the next breakout WR3 like Breaston is a tricky proposition

Always draft the WR1 on a bad offense ahead of the WR3 on a prolific one

By John Georgopoulos, Special to SI.com, SportsGrumblings.com

PRINT EMAIL FACEBOOK DIGG TWITTER RSS SHARE
Decrease font Decrease font
Enlarge font Enlarge font
breaston-st-b.jpg
Third-string wideout Steve Breaston caught 77 balls for 1,006 yards in '08, a better output than the WR1 of 12 other teams.
Scott Boehm/Getty Images

One of the benefits of being a longtime fantasy writer is that I've heard just about every cliché there is when it comes to drafting:

• "Never draft a kicker or defense before you have to"

• "That guy is good in real life but stinks as a fantasy QB"

• "Always know the rules of the league before sitting down to draft"

• "Running Back by Committee = Fantasy Death"

• "Never drink the beer that has stuff floating in it"

One maxim that I've been thinking about recently is the old, "It's better to draft the WR1 of a bad team than the WR3 of a good team; at least he's the clear starter."

And when I start thinking about fantasy football maxims, two things happen: (1) I start to think of ways to test the validity of said maxim and (2) so much smoke comes out of my ears that family members think a new Pope has been elected.

I asked the Sports Grumblings supercomputer, Mighty Max, to rank wide receivers by 2008 WCOFF score and by team.

To keep things manageable, I instituted a 32-catch minimum (two receptions per game over a full season). As always, Max responded quickly and efficiently:

2008 Wide Receiver Fantasy Production by Team

Player

Team

G

GS

Rec

Yards

TD

WCOFF

 

Player

Team

G

GS

Rec

Yards

TD

WCOFF

Fitzgerald, Larry

Ari

16

16

96

1431

12

311.10

 

Berrian, Bernard

Min

16

15

48

964

7

189.00

Boldin, Anquan

Ari

12

11

89

1038

11

265.50

 

Wade, Bobby

Min

16

14

53

645

2

129.50

Breaston, Steve

Ari

16

9

77

1006

3

196.40

 

Welker, Wes

NE

16

14

111

1165

3

248.10

Urban, Jerheme

Ari

16

2

34

448

4

103.70

 

Moss, Randy

NE

16

16

69

1008

11

235.80

White, Roddy

Atl

16

16

88

1382

7

268.60

 

Gaffney, Jabar

NE

16

8

38

468

2

96.80

Jenkins, Michael

Atl

16

12

50

777

3

145.70

 

Moore, Lance

NO

16

6

79

928

10

230.80

Mason, Derrick

Bal

16

16

80

1037

5

214.00

 

Colston, Marques

NO

11

7

47

760

5

153.00

Clayton, Mark

Bal

16

13

41

695

3

148.20

 

Henderson, D.

NO

16

13

32

793

3

132.60

Evans, Lee

Buf

16

16

63

1017

3

184.90

 

Smith, Steve

NYG

16

4

57

574

1

120.40

Reed, Josh

Buf

13

13

56

597

1

121.70

 

Hixon, Domenik

NYG

16

7

43

596

2

117.20

Smith, Steve

Car

14

14

78

1421

6

260.10

 

Burress, Plaxico

NYG

10

9

35

454

4

104.40

Muhammad, Muhsin

Car

16

15

65

923

5

187.30

 

Coles, Laveranues

NYJ

16

16

70

850

7

197.90

Hester, Devin

Chi

15

7

51

665

3

141.60

 

Cotchery, Jerricho

NYJ

16

16

71

858

5

187.60

Davis, Rashied

Chi

16

13

35

445

2

92.90

 

Stuckey, Chansi

NYJ

15

2

32

359

3

86.00

Houshmandzadeh, T.J.

Cin

15

15

92

904

4

207.30

 

Jackson, DeSean

Phi

16

15

62

912

2

179.80

Ochocinco, Chad

Cin

13

10

53

540

4

131.00

 

Baskett, Hank

Phi

15

6

33

440

3

95.00

Edwards, Braylon

Cle

16

16

55

873

3

160.30

 

Curtis, Kevin

Phi

9

8

33

390

2

84.00

Owens, Terrell

Dal

16

16

69

1052

10

237.50

 

Avant, Jason

Phi

15

6

32

377

2

81.70

Crayton, Patrick

Dal

16

7

39

550

4

119.10

 

Ward, Hines

Pit

16

15

81

1043

7

227.70

Marshall, Brandon

Den

15

15

104

1265

6

266.10

 

Holmes, Santonio

Pit

15

15

55

821

5

168.00

Royal, Eddie

Den

15

15

91

980

5

229.90

 

Washington, Nate

Pit

16

1

40

631

3

122.90

Stokley, Brandon

Den

15

2

49

528

3

119.80

 

Jackson, Vincent

SD

16

16

59

1098

7

217.70

Johnson, Calvin

Det

16

16

78

1331

12

283.00

 

Chambers, Chris

SD

14

9

33

462

5

109.30

McDonald, Shaun

Det

12

7

35

332

1

74.20

 

Engram, Bobby

Sea

13

11

47

489

0

95.90

Jennings, Greg

GB

16

15

80

1292

9

263.20

 

Bruce, Isaac

SF

16

15

61

835

7

186.20

Driver, Donald

GB

16

16

74

1012

5

205.60

 

Johnson, Bryant

SF

16

12

45

546

3

117.60

Nelson, Jordy

GB

16

2

33

366

2

81.60

 

Holt, Torry

StL

16

14

64

796

3

161.60

Johnson, Andre

Hou

16

16

115

1575

8

320.50

 

Avery, Donnie

StL

15

12

53

674

3

151.30

Walter, Kevin

Hou

16

16

60

899

8

200.20

 

Bryant, Antonio

TB

16

15

83

1248

7

252.00

Wayne, Reggie

Ind

16

16

82

1145

6

232.50

 

Clayton, Michael

TB

15

10

38

484

1

92.90

Gonzalez, Anthony

Ind

16

2

57

664

4

147.40

 

Gage, Justin

Ten

12

11

34

651

6

135.10

Northcutt, Dennis

Jax

14

2

44

545

2

111.40

 

Jones, Brandon

Ten

16

7

41

449

1

95.40

Bowe, Dwayne

KC

16

16

86

1022

7

230.20

 

Moss, Santana

Wsh

16

16

79

1044

6

222.10

Ginn, Ted

Mia

16

14

56

790

2

166.30

 

Randle El, Antwaan

Wsh

16

16

53

593

4

143.10

Camarillo, Greg

Mia

11

11

55

613

2

128.40

 

 

Bess, Davone

Mia

16

6

54

554

1

116.70

 

What's interesting to note is that only nine teams managed to field three receivers who met the search criteria: the Cardinals, Broncos, Packers, Dolphins, Patriots, Saints, Giants, Jets, Eagles and Steelers. It's also interesting to note that four teams couldn't even supply two receivers who met the search criteria: the Browns, Jags, Chiefs and Seahawks.

The performance of Steve Breaston clearly stands out here -- not only is he a good receiver, but he clearly benefitted from the injury to Anquan Boldin combined with a pass-happy offense. His performance as a WR3 on his own team was better than that of the top receiver of 12 other teams!

Player

Team

G

GS

Rec

Yards

TD

WCOFF

Breaston, Steve

Ari

16

9

77

1006

3

196.4

Berrian, Bernard

Min

16

15

48

964

7

189.0

Bruce, Isaac

SF

16

15

61

835

7

186.2

Evans, Lee

Buf

16

16

63

1017

3

184.9

Jackson, DeSean

Phi

16

15

62

912

2

179.8

Ginn, Ted

Mia

16

14

56

790

2

166.3

Holt, Torry

StL

16

14

64

796

3

161.6

Edwards, Braylon

Cle

16

16

55

873

3

160.3

Hester, Devin

Chi

15

7

51

665

3

141.6

Gage, Justin

Ten

12

11

34

651

6

135.1

Smith, Steve

NYG

16

4

57

574

1

120.4

Northcutt, Dennis

Jax

14

2

44

545

2

111.4

Engram, Bobby

Sea

13

11

47

489

0

95.9

Pretty impressive, right? I suppose that means we should all run out and grab that WR3 on pass-happy offenses, right? Well... maybe not. I broke out the WR3/WR4 from the nine teams, to better isolate their performance numbers:

Player

Team

G

GS

Rec

Yards

TD

WCOFF

Breaston, Steve

Ari

16

9

77

1006

3

196.4

Henderson, Devery

NO

16

13

32

793

3

132.6

Washington, Nate

Pit

16

1

40

631

3

122.9

Stokley, Brandon

Den

15

2

49

528

3

119.8

Bess, Davone

Mia

16

6

54

554

1

116.7

Burress, Plaxico

NYG

10

9

35

454

4

104.4

Urban, Jerheme

Ari

16

2

34

448

4

103.7

Gaffney, Jabar

NE

16

8

38

468

2

96.8

Stuckey, Chansi

NYJ

15

2

32

359

3

86.0

Curtis, Kevin

Phi

9

8

33

390

2

84.0

Avant, Jason

Phi

15

6

32

377

2

81.7

Nelson, Jordy

GB

16

2

33

366

2

81.6

Average WR3 Performance

14.7

5.7

40.8

531.2

2.7

110.6

The point to note here is that the average WR3-type produced 110.6 points -- which bested the performance of just one WR1 in the NFL: Bobby Engram.

I don't know about you, but I'm inclined to play the odds and draft a starting WR on a bad team before I'd try to predict who this year's Steve Breaston or Devery Henderson will be.

So the bottom line here is that this is one fantasy football maxim that deserves its hallowed status: Draft the WR1 on a bad team ahead of the WR3 on a high-powered offense.

John T. Georgopoulos is the publisher of Sports Grumblings, a fantasy sports portal providing strategy, articles and online tools to help you DOMINATE your leagues. John's Fantasy Forecast® series won the prestigious Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award for Best On-Going Series. Visit Sports Grumblings today and get on the path to DOMINATING your fantasy football league!

PRINT EMAIL FACEBOOK DIGG TWITTER RSS SHARE
ADVERTISEMENT
More Fantasy
More from SI.com
Latest News
SI Writers
SI Photos
SI's College Basketball Action
SI's College Basketball Action
Magic Johnson: The College Years
Magic Johnson: The College Years
Leading Off: Pictures of the Week
Leading Off: Pictures of the Week
SI Vault
Featured Stories
Covers
12.21.98
12.21.98
View This Issue
Read All Articles
12.07.09
12.07.09
Read All Articles
Buy Cover Reprint
12.26.98
12.26.98
Read All Articles
SI.com
Hot Topics: Roy Halladay John Lackey Tiger Woods Best of 2000s: NHL
Copyright © 2009 Time Inc. A Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved.
Terms under which this service is provided to you. Read our privacy guidelines.
SI Cover Read All Articles Buy Cover Reprint