Pecking Order: Hunting 'The Aardsmark'

By Antonio D'Arcangelis, RotoExperts.com, Special to SI.com

Kansas City's Joakim Soria boasts a 1.72 ERA and eight saves in nine chances. Ed Zurga/Icon SMI

Since all is relatively quiet this week on the closers front, I'll examine three buy-low candidates and three sell-high guys who are bound to break out/regress in the second half of the season.

Buy Low

1. Joakim Soria, KC
After yielding singles to Miguel Tejada and Lance Berkman to start the ninth on Tuesday, Soria struck out Ivan Rodriguez and Kaz Matsui before fielding a weak Jason Michaels grounder and closing the door. Soria seems healthy, and with the Royals coming off a bad stretch, they'll depend heavily on him to preserve tenuous leads. I spoke very highly of Soria in my first column this year, so it should come as no surprise that despite eight saves, I'm recommending you make a deal for the 25-year-old hurler.

2. Huston Street, COL
Kyle Stack deconstructed Street this week and makes several excellent points, so I'll defer to his analysis: "He's mowing down batters with a 10.2 K/9 rate. ... Street's fastball velocity has reached over 91 mph on average, up a full mile on the gun from last season." Of course, there's more to Kyle's column than a few nerdy numbers. He astutely points out that Street now sets up on the right side of the rubber. So far, the change has worked; his walk rate is down, and he's throwing first-pitch strikes at a 65.6 percent clip -- the highest rate of his career.

3. David Aardsma, SEA
"The Aardsmark" (can somebody please credit me with giving him this awesome handle? I searched the Web and found no hits) has been positively nasty since taking over ninth-inning duties. Aardsma -- or "Crazy Eyes," as he was nicknamed in 2007 -- struck out seven of the last 11 batters he's faced. His K/BB rate is over 2.00, his FIP is at 2.79, and his strand rate is up to 87.8% -- even though his GB/FB rate is obnoxiously low at 0.36. He's throwing his fastball more (88.7% compared to a career rate of 76.7%) and opposing hitters' contact rate is at 71.2 -- down from his career rate of 77.1. If you can somehow pry him away at cost from somebody who's fearful of his .254 BABIP, I'd go for it, because every other indicator says that he's coming into his own. If you want to know more, Dave Cameron of fangraphs.com lends a bit of insight into Aardsma's success in a June 23 piece.

Sell High

1. Trevor Hoffman, MIL
After a torrid start, he's allowed six hits and two walks (while striking out just two) in his last 4.2 innings. He's on the wrong side of 40, can't maintain any of his current metrics, and will end up falling well short of the expectations owners probably lumped on him after his first month back.

2. Ryan Franklin, STL
There's just no way in Hades he keeps this charade up. I've already analyzed it to death and voiced my disdain for Franklin, so I'll just throw a few metrics out there and you can piece it together: 6.67 K/9, 0.67 HR/9, .200 BAA, .232 BABIP, 99.1 LOB%, 6.5% HR/FB, and 3.21 FIP. Yeah -- unsustainable.

3. Bobby Jenks, CHW
I know, blasphemy, right? He's not quite as reliable as you might think. Despite his 17 saves so far, he's got a 4.42 FIP and has a history of shoulder, ankle and hip problems dating back to 2006. He doesn't yield many infield flyouts, at least for my liking, and his zone contact rate is 83.7%, the lowest it's been since 2005. There's a slew of metrics that show Jenks will likely maintain decent numbers if he stays healthy, but I'm firm on trading him straight up for Soria -- or even an apparent overachiever like Heath Bell.

Stats as of June 23, 2009

On the Fence

Brad Lidge, PHI
13-for-19 (68%), 26 IP, 28 Ks, 7.27 ERA, 1.81 WHIP
Next in line: Ryan Madson
Third in line: J.C. Romero/Chad Durbin

Frank Francisco, TEX
12-for-12 (100%), 20.2 IP, 22 Ks, 0.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
Next in line: C.J. Wilson/Eddie Guardado
Third in line: Darren O'Day

Chad Qualls, ARI
13-for-16 (81%), 26.2 IP, 26 Ks, 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Next in line: Tony Peña
Third in line: Juan Gutierrez/Tom Gordon (DL)

Fernando Rodney, DET
14-for-14 (100%), 29 IP, 22 Ks, 4.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Next in line: Brandon Lyon/ Joel Zumaya
Third in line: Ryan Perry

Matt Capps, PIT
16-for-18 (89%), 23.2 IP, 17 Ks, 4.94 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
Next in line: John Grabow
Third in line: Sean Burnett/Jesse Chavez

Kerry Wood, CLE
9-for-13 (69%), 25.1 IP, 29 Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.62 WHIP
Next in line: Matt Herges
Third in line: Jensen Lewis

Brad Lidge (sprained right knee) is slated to return this week, replacing Ryan Madson as the Phillies' closer. Chad Qualls still isn't right. Prospective setup man Tom Gordon threw a 35-pitch bullpen session recently, his first time off the mound since going on the DL in May with a hamstring injury. Gordon might not be the answer to the D-Backs' bullpen woes, but a well-traveled reliever among the young guns can't hurt. Fernando Rodney hasn't been the poster boy for reliability, but he's doing one thing right: his first-strike rate is at an impressive 72.5 -- up from his anagrammatic (not a word) 57.2 career rate. Taking this and a few other factors into consideration, it appears Rodney is pitching to contact -- a smart move in Comerica Park. There's probably something wrong with Kerry Wood, even if it is just homesickness for Chicago. He pretty much did everything he could to get traded back to the Cubbies, giving up 3 ER in 1.1 innings over two appearances in the Windy City and racking up a loss and two more blown saves. He nearly blew another one Tuesday, but worked out of a big jam against the lowly Pirates.

On the Shelf

Matt Lindstrom, FLA: Sprained right elbow
Lindstrom was placed on the 15-day DL, but the timetable for his return was set at well over a month. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said the best-case scenario is about six weeks without him, so fantasy owners should look to Leo Nunez, who's day-to-day with a right ankle sprain, or lefty Dan Meyer, who has pitched well and picked up the save on Wednesday night. Kiko Calero is also on the DL (June 18 ? right shoulder inflammation). My guess is Fredi will use both in a situational system a la Bobby Cox's technique with Mike González/Rafael Soriano.

Scott Downs, TOR: Sprained left big toe
No timetable for his return from the DL, but it's encouraging he threw off flat ground on June 19. So far, Jason Frasor has pitched alright in his stead.

Troy Percival, TB: Right shoulder tendonitis
Return uncertain

Closer-by-Committee

Rafael Soriano, ATL
6-for-7 (86%), 33.2 IP, 46 Ks, 1.34 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Mike González, ATL
8-for-11 (73%), 34 IP, 44 Ks, 2.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Next in line: Peter Moylan

Andrew Bailey, OAK
8-for-12 (67%), 44.1 IP, 50 Ks, 2.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Next in line: Brad Ziegler
Third in line: Michael Wuertz

Mike MacDougal, WAS
2-for-2 (100%), 10.2 IP, 6 Ks, 0.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (NL Stats only)
Next in line: Joe Beimel
Third in line: Julian Tavarez

J.P. Howell, TB
4-for-9 (44%), 4 HLDs, 34.2 IP, 42 Ks, 1.82 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Next in line: Dan Wheeler/Randy Choate
Third in line: Grant Balfour/ Joe Nelson

Jason Frasor, TOR
2-for-4 (50%), 3 HLDs, 25.2 IP, 20 Ks, 2.10 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
Next in line: B.J. Ryan
Third in line: Jesse Carlson/Brandon League

Leo Nunez, FLA
2-for-5 (88%), 13 HLDs, 32.2 IP, 29 Ks, 4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Dan Meyer, FLA
1-for-1 (100%), 10 HLDs, 31 IP, 30 Ks, 2.03 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Next in line: Brian Sanches/Chris Leroux
Third in line: Tim Wood/Kiki Calero (DL)

On Board

Mariano Rivera, NYY
15-for-16 (94%), 27.2 IP, 33 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Next in line: Brian Bruney
Third in line: Phil Coke

Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
16-for-17 (94%), 30 IP, 32 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Next in line: Takashi Saito
Third in line: Hideki Okajima/Daniel Bard

Francisco Rodríguez, NYM
19-for-21 (90%), 34.2 IP, 36 Ks, 1.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Next in line: Bobby Parnell
Third in line: Brian Stokes

Jonathan Broxton, LAD
18-for-20 (90%), 35.2 IP, 57 Ks, 2.27 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Next in line: Cory Wade
Third in line: Ramon Troncoso

Joe Nathan, MIN
16-for-18 (89%), 27.2 IP, 32 Ks, 1.63 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
Next in line: Jose Mijares
Third in line: Matt Guerrier/Jesse Crain

Heath Bell, SD
20-for-21 (95%), 31.1 IP, 35 Ks, 1.44 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
Next in line: Cla Meredith/Greg Burke
Third in line: Edward Mujica

Trevor Hoffman, MIL
16-for-17 (94%), 20.2 IP, 17 Ks, 1.31 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
Next in line: Carlos Villanueva
Third in line: Seth McClung/Todd Coffey

Joakim Soria, KC
8-for-9 (89%), 15.2 IP, 18 Ks, 1.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Next in line: Juan Cruz
Third in line: Kyle Farnsworth

Francisco Cordero, CIN
17-for-18 (94%), 30 IP, 28 Ks, 2.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Next in line: David Weathers
Third in line: Nick Masset

Bobby Jenks, CWS
17-for-19 (89%), 25 IP, 23 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Next in line: Matt Thornton
Third in line: Octavio Dotel

Brian Wilson, SF
19-for-22 (86%), 33.2 IP, 36 Ks, 2.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Next in line: Jeremy Affeldt
Third in line: Justin Miller/Merkin Valdez

Huston Street, COL
16-for-17 (94%), 31 IP, 35 Ks, 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Next in line: Joel Peralta
Third in line: Matt Daley/Manny Corpas

David Aardsma, SEA
14-for-15 (93%), 33.1 IP, 41 Ks, 1.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Next in line: Mark Lowe
Third in line: Miguel Batista

Brian Fuentes, LAA
20-for-23 (87%), 24.1 IP, 28 Ks, 4.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Next in line: Jason Bulger/Justin Speier
Third in line: Kelvim Escobar

Ryan Franklin, STL
17-for-18 (94%), 27 IP, 20 Ks, 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Next in line: Jason Motte
Third in line: Kyle McClellan/Chris Pérez

José Valverde, HOU
5-for-7 (71%), 13.1 IP, 18 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Next in line: LaTroy Hawkins
Third in line: Chris Sampson

George Sherrill, BAL
15-for-17 (88%), 28.2 IP, 25 Ks, 2.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Next in line: Jim Johnson
Third in line: Danys Báez

Kevin Gregg, CHC
11-for-14 (79%), 32.1 IP, 32 Ks, 4.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Next in line: Carlos Mármol
Third in line: Angel Guzman

Antonio can be reached at Antonio@rotoexperts.com. If you want a crack at his devious knuckler, slap one back up the middle with a witty e-mail retort.