SI's 2009 Fantasy Football talking points

By David Sabino, SI.com

New England's Tom Brady. Damian Strohmeyer/SI Related Links FANTASY NFL PLAYER RANKINGS: The Top 200

This article appears in the August 10, 2009 issue of Sports Illustrated.

Running Backs

• If you get the top pick in your draft, don't overthink it. Take Adrian Peterson. Please.

• Don't let the presence of Jonathan Stewart in the Panthers' backfield keep you from using a high pick on DeAngelo Williams. Carolina will run the ball enough to keep both backs busy.

• Matt Forte has actually been going No. 1 in some mock drafts, but I see his workload going down with Jay Cutler behind center in Chicago and a healthy Kevin Jones as his relief option.

• I'm not as high on second-year man Chris Johnson as most people, who expect he'll take over the Titans' backfield. LenDale White will still get plenty of work.

• Thomas Jones isn't going to do as well as he did last year for the Jets. New coach Rex Ryan will have a Ravens-style RB rotation that will include Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene.

• Whenever Detroit made good use of Kevin Smith last season, he got the job done. In games in which he had 20 or more carries, he averaged close to 100 yards.

• Why is Beanie Wells rated ahead of fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno, even though Wells was taken 19 spots later in the NFL draft? Because Moreno is joining a Broncos offense that looks like it could be a mess.

• Three seasons ago Larry Johnson was a top two fantasy back. This year he isn't even a lock to make the Chiefs.

• Earnest Graham was always an accidental starter in Tampa Bay. It isn't a promising sign for him that Derrick Ward was the Bucs' big free-agent acquisition.

• The Colts will use Donald Brown. When a team drafts a back in the first round, it's usually a bad sign for the incumbent.

• No one in Baltimore's committee backfield is worth taking all that high, but if you dive in, remember that the pecking order has changed. Last year it was Willis McGahee with a side of (Ray) Rice; now it will be the other way around.

• The Dolphins' drafting Pat White is not good news for Ricky Williams. The former West Virginia QB should take some of Williams's snaps in the wildcat formation.

• Giants rookie Andre Brown is a guy I'd take a flier on. Many assume that the departed Derrick Ward's carries will go to Ahmad Bradshaw. I would bet that this fourth-round pick beats out Bradshaw.

• Le'Ron McClain looked good last year when he got a shot at tailback. Now he's back at fullback -- at least until someone gets hurt.

BUYER BEWARE

• Why isn't Michael Turner, who performed so well last year, rated even higher than No. 5? Look at the Falcons' schedule: Eagles, Giants, Jets, Pats, Redskins.... He'll be seeing a lot of tough run defenses.

OVERRATED

• Marion Barber dropped in my ratings because of what Felix Jones showed in 2008 before he got hurt. Jones will get the ball plenty between the 20s.

SLEEPERS

• T.J. Duckett is a great value pick. He had more rushing TDs last year than Marion Barber and Frank Gore. Also, Seattle's new coordinator, Greg Knapp, who knows Duckett from Atlanta, directed offenses that were No. 1 in rushing from 2004 to '06.

• LeSean McCoy is the backup with the best chance of scoring big. He has Brian Westbrook--like skills, and given Westbrook's injury history, it's easy to imagine the rookie falling into a lot of playing time.

Quarterbacks

QB Aaron Roders. Morry Gash/AP

• Drew Brees challenged Dan Marino's NFL season-passing-yardage record in 2008, and this year he should have Marques Colston and Reggie Bush back healthy. The Saints play a last-place schedule too.

• Considering his '09 stats, you'd think Kurt Warner would be rated higher. But he's 38, and last season was the first one since 2001 in which he held up for 16 games. That's too much risk. If you take Warner, use a late pick to grab his backup, Matt Leinart. With Warner's injury history and Arizona's excellent receivers, Leinart is the only backup worth drafting.

• Tom Brady is rated as high as seventh only because he's Tom Brady. Any other QB coming off a major knee injury and playing under a new coordinator wouldn't be.

• He's new to K.C. and short on experience, but Matt Cassel will do fine: a strong No. 1 target in Dwayne Bowe, a savvy possession receiver in Bobby Engram and a head coach who last year coordinated the high-flying Cardinals offense. Plus, their running game is so weak the Chiefs will have to throw.

• The second quarterback drafted last April, Mark Sanchez (Jets), makes my list, but the first, overall top pick Matt Stafford (Lions), does not this year, in the NFC North, behind that offensive line in Detroit.

ON THE RISE

• Aaron Rodgers may seem high on my list, but check the numbers: In '08 he had the fourth-best fantasy season of any player, after Brees, Philip Rivers and DeAngelo Williams. Now Rodgers has a full season under his belt, and he's facing a more forgiving schedule than he did last year.

UNDERRATED

• I like Jay Cutler more than most. With his arm strength, he will get the ball into tight spots and make Chicago's receivers look better than they have.