Mother lode or fool's gold

If he stays healthy and the Knicks surround him with more talent, Danilo Gallinari can be a very productive player. Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Two fantasy experts, Tamer Chamma and Trevor Lane discuss three young international players to see if they will provide consistent fantasy production.

Tamer: One of the biggest changes in the NBA over the last 20 years has been the influx of international players. Starting in the late 1980's with players like the late Drazen Petrovic, the NBA has increasingly reached outside U.S. borders to bring in young, promising talent. On opening night this season, 83 international players were on an NBA rosters, tying a record that was originally set at the start of the 2006-07 season. With so many international players now a part of the NBA, I think it's time we dedicated an entire MLFG to players born outside of the good old U.S. of A.

Today we are going to look at three young foreign players who truly demonstrate how the NBA has become a global league. Danilo Gallinari was born in Italy, Andris Biedrins' birthplace is Latvia, and Yi Jianlian was born and raised in China. That's three countries in three different time zones covering two continents! So let's see if these three players will follow in the footsteps of Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash or falter like Darko Milicic and Frederic Weis. (Sadly one of our three is a current Knick and one is a former Knicks draft pick).

Trevor, as Danilo would say, "Lo facciamo." (That's "Let's do it" in Italian.)

Trevor: While the Euro draft invasion may not be at its peak anymore (remember when Nikoloz Tskitishvili was going to be the next Dirk?), there is still a fantastic base of international players running on the NBA hardwood. In fact, there are so many quality internationals that there's been legitimate debate about whether an All-Star team made of foreign-born players could defeat an All-Star team of American-borns. While that's a discussion for another day, the fact remains that the NBA is truly expanding into a global phenomenon.

Danilo Gallinari, SF, Knicks

Through 31 games: 30.5 MPG, 14.5 PTS, 41.9 FG%, 80.3 FT%, 86 3PTM, 4.7 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.9 BLK

After being drafted sixth overall by the Knicks in 2008, Gallinari struggled to stay on the court his rookie season due to back problems. He has, however, looked like a new player this season after the surgery he had late last season. Can he continue to stay healthy and become a fantasy stud or will the back problems resurface to ultimately derail a promising NBA career?

Tamer: We were all told that Gallinari was a tremendous shooter when he was drafted. He's demonstrated those abilities this season by making 2.8 threes per game, second in the NBA behind Danny Granger. What has been surprising and encouraging for fantasy owners is Gallinari's ability to mix it up on the defensive end. He's averaging a shade under a block and a steal per game, and when you include that with his decent rebounding totals, you are looking at a guy who can contribute nicely in six categories. Simply put, the sky is the limit for the 21-year-old.

Once Gallinari fills out, he should become more of a force on the boards and the defensive end. In addition, his shooting will improve as he gets more acclimated to the NBA and develops a better mid-range and low-post game. His maturation along with a talent upgrade on the Knicks in 2010 (obviously, Lebron James or Dwyane Wade come to mind first, but even Joe Johnson, A'mare Stoudemire, and/or Chris Bosh would suffice), should see Gallinari approach 18 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three threes, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game on 50 percent shooting from the field, and 90 percent from the free throw line. That is a very productive fantasy player.

The question that lingers with Gallo is the back problems that limited him to 28 games last season. I do not foresee his back being an issue for the rest of his career. According to a variety of back specialists, Gallinari's particular type of surgery has a 90-percent success rate in preventing any future chronic problems. The fact that he's in his early 20's only increases his chances of health going forward, especially for the duration of hiscareer. He had no major health issues before last year and is proving that he's not to be labeled an injury risk. With a clean bill of health,and his tremendous talent, I see Gallinari being a Mother Lode player for years to come.

Trevor: Before I get into this, let me give this disclaimer: I like Gallinari, especially for the Knicks. He has the chance to be a category-buster in threes for years to come, and I'm always partial to guys who can knock down the long ball. However, I'm not nearly as high on Gallinari as Tamer is.

Gallinari has always been seen as Nowitzki-esque, but he would actually have more value than everyone's favorite German if he hits the numbers Tamer has projected. I just have a tough time imagining that happening. Again, Gallinari will be good, but there are some key areas that I think will prevent him from ever becoming a star.

For one thing, I don't see his rebounding more than about six per game. He's a smart player, but I see him as more of a Peja Stojakovic-type who just doesn't have the girth or attitude to be a sturdy rebounder. I also see 50 percent shooting as being a very tough mark to hit. To do that and hit the number of threes he does, would be amazing. It's not impossible (Nash could probably do it), but it's safe to say that Danilo won't.

His back problems are also a concern, though so far this season he's looked like they're behind him (no pun intended). Still, I can't completely dismiss that he has the potential for a recurring role in street clothes if his back isn't as solid as it's appeared this year. Gallinari will be good, and is more than welcome on my fantasy squad, but if you are looking for a star, he is Fool's Gold.

Andris Biedrins, C, Warriors

Through 6 games: 22 MPG, 5.0 PTS, 62.5 FG%, 0 FT%, 6.8 REB, 2 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.5 BLK

After struggling his first two years in the NBA, Biedrins came into his own in his third season and was productive for fantasy owners in 2006-07 as well as 2007-08. He had his best statistical season in 2008-09, but missed 20 games due to injury. The woes have continued this season as he's only played in six of the Warriors' 31 games due to a bad back. Will he be able to avoid injuries and continue to produce for fantasy owners?

Tamer: I am not as high on Biedrins as a lot of people are, and it's not solely based on injuries. First of all, he's a terrible free-throw shooter and while he doesn't attempt many per game, there are a lot of better options at the center position that make at least 70 percent of theirs. In addition, his minutes will always be limited because he still can't figure out how to stay out of foul trouble. He averaged a career-high 30 minutes per game last season, but still fouled out of eight games and recorded five in 11 other games. Remember he only played in 62 games, so that means his minutes were limited in almost a third of them due to foul trouble.

Another problem is that Don Nelson will most likely not be back with the Warriors if he gets 15 more wins this season and passes Lenny Wilkens to become the all-time leader in wins by an NBA head coach. Biedrins was an afterthought before Nelson became the Warriors' coach before the 2006-07 season. He showed faith in Biedrins by making him the starter over Adonal Foyle at the start of 2006-07. In addition, Nellie Ball fits well with Biedrins' limited offensive game because it allows him to use his athleticism to get easy baskets in transition. A new coach may not think as highly of him as Nelson does, and also may have a different offensive system that doesn't fit his skill set.

Biedrins is a talented player, but he has too many shortcomings and, along with an uncertain future with the Warriors, I have no choice but to give him a Fool's Gold.

Trevor: Biedrins is a solid but not spectacular big man with decent mobility who can finish around the rim and block some shots. He should be a mediocre fantasy player who spends a decent amount of time sitting on the waiver wire each season. He was drafted 59th on average in ESPN drafts thsi year, and was expected to be a starting quality center. How does this happen? Nelson, that's how.

Nellie employs the small-ball, run-and-gun style with limited success for the Warriors, which means there are plenty of rebounds to grab and lots of space for a big man to operate in. While you never know what lineup Nelson will send out, as long as Biedrins gets around 30 minutes a night he's going to put up solid numbers. And while injuries have slowed him early on this season, I'm not giving up on the big man. I think that in the second half of the season we will see the Andris we were all expecting, making him a Mother Lode player for those who were patient with him.

Yi Jianlian, PF, Nets

Through 8 games: 33.6 MPG, 16.1 PTS, 49.5 FG%, 82.5 FT%, 4 3PTM, 7.1 REB, 0.3 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.9 BLK

Jianlian has shown flashes of tremendous talent during his first two-plus years in the NBA. The enthusiasm surrounding him has been tempered, however, because he's missed significant time due to injury in each of his first three seasons. Will he be able to stay healthy and develop into a bona fide fantasy contributor or will injuries and inconsistencies continue to make him a headache in fantasy basketball circles?

Tamer: It's hard not to like a seven-footer who has three-point range. He was inconsistent in his first two NBA seasons, but has started to put it together this year albeit in only eight games due to a knee injury that kept him out for over six weeks. The numbers he's put up in his first four games back show what type of fantasy player he can be. In those four, he averaged 22.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, one trey, and 1.2 steals while shooting 54.1 percent from the field and 80 percent from the free-throw line.

That is excellent production in six categories and he;s also averaging just under a block per game this season. The injuries are a problem, but unlike Biedrins, it's really the only question mark. He can excel in any offensive style, is a much better free-throw shooter then Biedrins, and doesn't get into foul trouble. So there is no reason to think he can't average 35-to-40 minutes a night as he becomes more consistent.

I'm going to bank on him being healthier as he gets accustomed to the rigors of an 82-game season. I have no doubts about his ability to gain consistency and be productive in up to seven categories, so he gets a Mother Lode from me.

Trevor: I agree in that I think Yi has really shown something this season and can be a great fantasy player if he stays healthy. It's that last part, though, that sours my opinion.

So far, on average, Yi is missing roughly a quarter of each season, which is a big blow to the fantasy squad he's on. Sometimes guys that are really tall can have problems with injuries because their bodies just aren't able to take the pounding (see: Yao Ming). I'm really hoping that this won't be the case with Yi, but as of right now, I have to consider him a major injury risk and therefore give him a Fool's Gold.

*All stats as of 12/30/09

Do you have a different opinion fhan Tamer and Trevor? Share it with them at tamer@rotoexperts.com and lane@rotoexperts.com