Divisional-Round Breakdown: Eagles at Giants

Giants running back Brandon Jacobs had 32 carries for 178 yards and two TDs in two games against the Eagles this season. Al Tielemans/SI Related Links Divisional-Round Breakdown: Ravens-Titans Divisional-Round Breakdown: Cards-Panthers Divisional-Round Breakdown: Chargers-Steelers

Breaking down Sunday's Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants division-round matchup (1 p.m., Fox)...

Who Has the Edge At...

Quarterback: Eagles

...Barely. And Eli Manning is the kind of guy who loves to hear that. (Bring on the doubters!) He's got a pretty solid December/January record to his name, and we all know what he did last season. But he's struggled to find a special on-field relationship with any one receiver since Plaxico Burress left. In the six weeks Manning has played without Burress, he's failed to connect with a single receiver more than six times (or for more than 85 yards) during a game. If he has an advantage this week it's his familiarity with the Giants Stadium wind, which he had no problem with in Week 14 against Philly when he spiraled one ball nearly 50 yards, right into Domenik Hixon's breadbasket. (The fact Hixon dropped that ball, along with a few others, brings up a point I'll address in a bit.)

McNabb's in a pretty similar situation receivers-wise, but he has an edge in that he's been working like this -- without a singular standout receiver -- pretty much since the day T.O. peaced out. Last week McNabb played a nearly perfect game, using mostly short, precision passes to eight receivers. He has thrown 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions over his last six games.

I also liked what I saw from McNabb facing a nasty Vikings pass rush last week. He did a remarkable job of staying out of harm's way, and I think he'll have even more time in the pocket this week.

Running Back: Giants

If Brandon Jacobs doesn't go down with a knee injury in the third quarter of that Week 14 Eagles-Giants game at the Meadowlands, things go down differently that afternoon. (Which means Philly wouldn't have even made the playoffs.) But he did; and the Giants, down 10-7 at the time, failed to convert a third-and-three near midfield on that drive, pretty much wrapping up the Eagles' win. When Jacobs left, he had 52 yards on 10 carries. Then backups Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for just 19 yards on seven touches down the stretch. In the end, the Giants were 0-for-3 on fourth-down attempts. See where I'm going with this?

Jacobs, who went buck wild against Philly in an earlier matchup, should be fully healed after three weeks off -- remember, he sat against Minnesota in the finale, too -- so expect him to go the whole way. And I like a rested Jacobs-Ward-Bradshaw combo over Brian Westbrook (who's pretty beat up) and Correll Buckhalter any day.

Receivers: Eagles

Not a diamond in the whole bunch. DeSean Jackson? Maybe, if he'd show a little consistency. He had one great 34-yard catch last week -- and then nothing else.

Westbrook and Buckhalter might as well be considered receivers, but they do most of their damage out of the backfield, which I really count as runs at the end of the day. Think Antonio Pierce is gonna get burnt on that little dump pass again, the same one Westbrook took 50-plus yards against the Giants and again versus the Vikings last week? I don't think so. I expect Steve Spagnuolo will have something special devised to cover Westbrook out of the backfield.

Mostly I like the Giants less here because of their repeated futility in the Meadowlands winds. I've said it before, but two games stick out to me for this unit: last year against Washington and this year against Philadelphia. Probably 15 dropped balls in those two games combined; and in the later game, New York's receivers entered the fourth quarter with just 37 combined yards. Manning has done a great job of cutting the wind to get the ball where it needs to be, but something happens in between because the Giants' receivers have botched some amazingly easy catches. The longer that ball hangs out there, the more trouble these guys have.

Offensive Line: Even

Remember how much we all raved about the Giants' line early in the year, when they were facing the likes of the Bengals, Seahawks, Browns and 49ers, who combined for two(!) sacks of Manning? Well, that talk has calmed down a bit. In the final four games Manning finished, he hit the turf 13 times, including eight times against Dallas, whose blitz frequency is comparable to Philadelphia's.

The Eagles' hogs have been only slightly better, though McNabb gets most of the credit for keeping his jersey clean at the end of the day. If McNabb gets harassed early on, the line will get some help from whichever tight end starts as well as a receiver. That upgrades this unit but puts a serious hit on its receivers.

Defensive Line: Eagles

The Giants' David Diehl will have his hands full with Eagles right defensive end Trent Cole, who played like a monster against the Vikings. Cole had 11 tackles and the Eagles' only sack of Manning in two earlier meetings this year.

Justin Tuck's the wild card here. He played terribly in a very meaningful game against Carolina and sparingly against Minnesota. He's got a lower leg problem that's kept him out of practice, which could be big trouble. Tuck's the engine to this line; if he's out or at half-speed, it'll bring down the rest of the unit.

Linebackers: Giants

I underrated the Eagles' Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong going into last week's wild-card matchup, one of the first times I saw them each play a full game. Now that I know what they bring, which is remarkable sideline-to-sideline speed (perfect against a sideline-to-sideline guy like Adrian Peterson), I think they're a poor fit in this game. Peterson ran through each of those guys for a touchdown last week, which means the bigger Jacobs will be looking to flatten 'em, too.

On the Giants, I think Pierce looks at the Week 14 Eagles-Giants game and sees one of the worst games of his career; and I think he makes a point not to repeat that.

Eagles veteran safety Brian Dawkins comes ready to play right out of the tunnel. Al Tielemans/SI

Defensive Backs: Eagles

One guy tilts the scale here: Free safety Brian Dawkins. He put on one of the most devastating tackling exhibitions I've ever seen last week, like a jacked-up Bob Sanders or Mike Brown on the rare occasion that those guys are healthy. (And we wonder why they hardly ever make it onto the field.) Dawkins even knocked Peterson out of the game for a short period last week. He's also got a lesser-heralded but equally strong tackler, strong safety Quitin Mikell, following his lead.

Special Teams: Giants

Here I go writing off DeSean Jackson again, but the Giants have the league's third-best punt coverage team and have allowed just one return score of any sort over the last three years. Any sort of Meadowlands wind will mean shorter punts and kicks and, hence, shorter returns.

Then there's David Akers, who has to absolutely loathe traveling to New Jersey by now. (Lips zipped. No Jersey jokes from this former Hobokenite.) He's a line-drive kicker, which would lead one to believe he would fare well in the Meadowlands -- but not so. In five career games played after Nov. 1 at Giants Stadium, Akers is just 5 for 10. That includes the two attempts the Giants blocked in Week 14, one from right up the middle (that one was a low kick and got returned for a score) and another from New York's right end spot.

Those are all bad omens for a team that, lacking a long ball threat, gets by on sustained drives and field goals, like the four it used to beat Minnesota in the wild-card round.

Coaching: Giants

If anyone knows how to handle his troops heading into the playoffs, it's Tom Coughlin. He did pretty well in '07, starting everyone in a meaningless game against the Patriots and then winning the Super Bowl. So trust that he was doing the right thing by playing his starters for one half against the Vikings in Week 17 and then resting them for two weeks.

On the other side, Andy Reid is getting showered with praise today, but how long can that last? The guy's one bad decision away from being an outcast in Philly again.

How The Giants Will Win

That bad decision I spoke of, here it is -- and it's so predictable. If the Eagles fall behind early and Reid tips the pass-run ratio away from Westbrook, well, there you go. The Eagles were headed for a loss last week and only got saved by Brad Childress, who took the ball out of Peterson's hands and let Tarvaris Jackson throw the game away. Now, there's no comparison between Jackson and McNabb, but if Reid doesn't take a lesson away from that game he's doomed.

On the other sideline, Coughlin gets a win by pounding Jacobs. All. Day. Long. If Manning gets some manageable second- and third-down situations, clearly he'll have a better passing game for it. But if he has to chuck it up too often then, well...

How The Eagles Will Win

If the Eagles can force Manning into some third-and-long throws, something bad is going to happen in that funky Meadowlands wind. (Weather.com is calling for lows in the 20s, by the way.) The Eagles will get by with boatloads of blitzes, and some will actually pay off. They only sacked Manning once in two meetings this year.

It'll be an added bonus if Tuck sits out or plays hurt. He's proven pretty useless on his bad days. And without Tuck coming from the edge, heck, maybe DeSean Jackson finally gets some more deep balls.

Final Prediction

I've gone back and forth on this one. Last Sunday, as the Eagles celebrated in Minneapolis (did anyone catch McNabb's booty dance?), I was sold on Philly. That's precisely the game they need to play to beat New York, I thought. Then I got to thinking about that December Giants-Panthers game and how New York really worked the Jacobs-Ward combo down the stretch. I too often get wrapped up in the hot wild-card teams and forget about the guys who've been sitting at home -- resting up, game planning -- for weeks. I think the Eagles' magic ends here. Giants win 30-14.

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