Bubble watch (cont.)

Big East

LOCKS

Pitt, Connecticut, Georgetown, Syracuse

It would be great fun to see a top-four-of-the-ACC-and-Big-East Challenge. Maybe we'll get some of that at the regionals in March. By all rights, Louisville and Marquette should be locked, too, but it was worth waiting a week to discuss their situations in more detail. The additional depth beyond those six is what separates this year's Big East from any other league. Yes, there are a handful of overmatched teams at the bottom, but teams have to get past 10 other clubs first to find any real relief.

SHOULD BE IN

Louisville (13-3, 4-0; RPI: 12; SOS: 3)

Nothing like beating No. 1 to help distance you further from some early season frustration. Non-league losses to Western Kentucky and UNLV were surprising, as was (at the time) a defeat to Minnesota in Glendale, Ariz. Beating Kentucky, UAB and Ole Miss out of conference isn't bad, but the beauty of the Big East is that you get plenty of chances for marquee wins. At 4-0, the Cards are taking full advantage.

Marquette (16-2, 5-0; RPI: 18; SOS: 48)

Who's the other unbeaten in the conference besides Louisville? Yup, it's the Golden Eagles. There aren't many nonconference wins to get excited about, although beating Wisconsin in the rivalry game is always solid. The first two-thirds of the Big East schedule is as manageable as it can be in this league, so this run -- now at eight straight -- shouldn't radically derail anytime soon. The last five games of the regular season will determine how high these Eagles will be flying into March.

IN THE MIX

West Virginia (13-4, 2-2; RPI: 26; SOS: 22)

The Mountaineers are computer monsters, with a solid RPI and SOS, huge offensive and defensive efficiency spreads ... and not a ton of excitement in their actual profile. They had some injuries that impacted them early, but beating Ohio State is all they really have for now. In the next five games, West Virginia is at Georgetown, Louisville and Syracuse and home against Pitt, so the Mountaineers will move one way or the other soon.

Villanova (14-3, 2-2; RPI: 32; SOS: 52)

Like WVU, Nova's computer numbers are respectable, but the Cats have a fairly hollow profile at this point. They lost to Marquette and Louisville in Big East play and Texas out of conference. Their best win so far is ... Rhode Island? Temple? Seton Hall? That's the problem.

Notre Dame (12-5, 3-3; RPI: 61; SOS: 103)

There's a huge gap between the Irish's ranking (13th last week) and their actual profile. Heading into a date with UCLA on Feb. 7, their nonconference SOS is an abysmal 319. Hello, Arizona State 2008. The Irish currently are 2-4 against the RPI top 100 and also lost to St. John's. Their next five? UConn, Marquette, at Pitt, at Cincy, at UCLA. The one-point win over Texas in Maui may end up as a huge difference-maker. It's a bit early to be alarmist, but it's not too early for some concern.

Cincinnati (11-6, 2-3; RPI: 68; SOS: 42)

Included more as an RPI technicality than on merit. The Bearcats have non-league wins over UNLV and UAB, but they'll need to do a lot more than beat Rutgers and DePaul in league play.

Big Ten

LOCKS

Michigan State

Like the Big 12, there's one elite-level team in this league and a decent amount of quality depth below it. Other than gutted Indiana, there's no automatic W. That should make for some compelling hoops ... and some difficult profile decisions come March.

SHOULD BE IN

Minnesota (15-2, 4-2; RPI: 14; SOS: 51)

The nonconference schedule was mostly soft, but the Gophers are one of the surprises of the season. The great comeback at Wisconsin hinted they were ready to take the next step, but then they lost at Northwestern on Sunday. The next three (Purdue, at Indiana, Illinois) are all winnable. Beating Louisville in Glendale, Ariz., should continue to pay dividends as the Cardinals rise.

Ohio State (13-3, 3-2; RPI: 19; SOS: 26)

Somewhat quietly, the Buckeyes have started rebuilding a fairly solid profile after a rough stretch around New Year's during which they lost three of four. They beat Miami, Notre Dame and Butler in non-league play, which is plenty to fall back on. After beating Michigan on Saturday, Ohio State is at Illinois before hosting Michigan State.

Illinois (15-3, 3-2; RPI: 23; SOS: 44)

One of the surprises of the season, the Illini have two things going for them -- more talent this season, especially offensively, and much better luck than last season, when KenPom.com rated them as the unluckiest team in Division I. Non-league wins over Vandy and Missouri are very solid and the only out-of-league loss was by two to Clemson. The Illini let Michigan State get away on Saturday, but get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home this week.

IN THE MIX

Wisconsin (11-5, 3-2; RPI: 17; SOS: 2)

Lost to UConn, Marquette, Texas Purdue and Minnesota. And beat ... Virginia Tech and Michigan? The computer recognizes who they have played, but the Badgers need to start actually beating some people. They only play Michigan State and Ohio State once each, so their league record will need to be better than some others given the lack of nonconference heft.

Michigan (12-5, 3-3; RPI: 43; SOS: 21)

The two marquee nonconference wins over UCLA and Duke (splitting with the Blue Devils after losing at MSG) are as good as any team in the nation has. The Wolverines also have already split with Illinois. After losing at home to Ohio State, the next two (at Penn State, vs. Northwestern) are important.

Purdue (14-4, 3-2; RPI: 57; SOS: 90)

The Boilermakers stole one at Northwestern after being down by 15 at one point and then pounded Iowa to get back above .500 in league play. Beating Davidson and Boston College isn't the best of nonconference résumés, so a good league finish will be important. We'll know a lot more about Purdue after the next five games, which include road dates at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois.

Northwestern (9-6, 1-4; RPI: 63; SOS: 17)

Solely included on RPI technicality. The brutal early schedule in Big Ten play killed what was an encouraging nonconference performance.

Pac-10

LOCKS

Arizona State

There's no great team in the league this season, but by March, UCLA should be plenty good and ASU already is. In the end, this could be a four- or five-bid league, so the muddle in the middle should be fun to watch, and teams like Cal and Washington are smart to be banking wins now.

SHOULD BE IN

California (15-3, 4-1; RPI: 16; SOS: 35)

If the Golden Bears keep shooting like they have been (47.3 percent from three), they will be extremely formidable come March. Note to opposing coaches: It's almost better to concede a layup than let Theo Robertson let it fly from beyond the arc (58.7 percent). Cal's nonconference schedule was pretty soft, so the 4-1 league start is a good sign. The Bears should be 6-1 after the Oregon schools visit this weekend.

UCLA (14-3, 4-1; RPI: 45; SOS: 98)

Heresy to have the top 10 ranked Bruins in this spot? Not if you actually look at their profile. They've lost to Michigan, at Texas and to Arizona State by a total of 10 points, but they're still losses. And where are the good wins? Southern Illinois? DePaul? USC? Arizona? The Bruins should easily make the NCAAs when all is said and done, but reputation precedes them at the moment.

IN THE MIX

Washington (13-4, 4-1; RPI: 37; SOS: 39)

The other 4-1 surprise team in Pac-10 play, the Huskies have moved past a terrible season-opening loss at Portland and early defeats to Kansas and Florida in Kansas City. Only a home loss to Cal (in overtime) blots their league record. Beating Oklahoma State is the only plus in non-league play, so the Huskies need to keep winning.

Stanford (12-3, 2-3; RPI: 44; SOS: 91)

The Cardinal got a big home win Saturday over former coach Mike Montgomery and Cal to get back on track. Wins over Northwestern and Texas Tech are the best of a meek nonconference bunch, so Stanford has a lot more work to do. The Cardinal must take advantage the Oregon schools this weekend. Those are must-wins for any NCAA tournament contender.

USC (12-5, 3-2; RPI: 65; SOS: 71)

Saturday's last-second foul gift from Arizona bumps the Trojans over .500 in league play, despite a very damaging loss at Oregon State. USC's non-league slate is weak; the Trojans lost close ones to Oklahoma (fine), Seton Hall (not fine) and Missouri. Five of the next seven are on the road, so we'll get a good idea where USC stands.

Arizona (11-7, 2-4; RPI: 75; SOS: 68)

The Cats just make the RPI cut, which is the only reason they're here. Saturday night's needless foul that cost them the game at USC and sums up their season so far. A good deal of promise and mostly disappointing in the end. Wins over Kansas and Gonzaga help, but Arizona needs a lot more after dropping its first four league road games.