Bubble watch (cont.)

SEC

LOCKS

None

It's clearly a down year for the league as far as top-end teams, but that should make the regular season very compelling. The league could still grab a handful of bids, but they probably won't be very good seeds.

SHOULD BE IN

Florida (16-2, 3-0; RPI: 25; SOS: 72)

The Gators are the best team in the league at this point, for whatever that's worth. Close losses to Syracuse and at Florida State look perfectly reasonable now. Florida beat Washington and Bradley in non-league play. Five of the Gators' next seven in SEC play are on the road, which should provide some clarity.

Tennessee (11-5, 2-1; RPI: 28; SOS: 7)

Home Ws used to be a given, but Tennessee has lost to Gonzaga and Kentucky and barely held off South Carolina. The Vols need to do better as their non-league slate is a mixed bag. They beat Georgetown and Marquette and lost to Gonzaga (yes, a neutral-and-road sweep for the Zags) and at Temple and Kansas. This week is big with games at Vandy and then against in-state rival Memphis.

IN THE MIX

Arkansas (12-4, 0-3; RPI: 55; SOS: 105)

A curious bunch, these Hogs. After losing at Missouri State early, home wins over Oklahoma and Texas helped cap a 10-game winning streak to end non-league play. Then they proceeded to start 0-3 in the SEC. Home games against Auburn and Alabama this week are critical, even this early in the schedule.

Kentucky (14-4, 3-0; RPI: 64; SOS: 115)

Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson provide one of the nation's best inside-outside tandems, which has been plenty on a lot of nights. After the season-opening upset by VMI (which is decent this season), the Cats beat West Virginia, lost close games to Miami and Louisville, and fell to UNC in non-league play. Road wins at Tennessee and Georgia are a nice way to get going in SEC play.

Mississippi (10-7, 1-2; RPI: 66; SOS: 16)

Ole Miss is here due to its RPI -- for now. Losing by 32 at home to LSU suggests the Rebels can't keep up NCAA tournament pace after losing point guard Chris Warren for the season.

Atlantic 10

LOCKS

Xavier

The Musketeers can be a little sketchy offensively, but they're still very good and the clear class of this conference. There are some decent teams behind them, but matching last season's three bids may be tough, especially if Xavier secures the automatic bid this time around.

IN THE MIX

Temple (9-7, 1-1; RPI: 40; SOS: 24)

More computer creation than legit profile at this point. The Owls did beat Tennessee and Penn State, but also have a couple of MAC losses and a defeat to Long Beach State, in addition to losing to Clemson, Kansas and Villanova. A tough loss at UMass on Saturday didn't help matters.

Dayton (16-2, 2-1; RPI: 41; SOS: 186)

It's clear the Flyers are pretty good, but their two lopsided losses (at Creighton and UMass) give you a moment's pause. Dayton beat Marquette for a marquee non-league win and second place in the A-10 is wide open at this point. If the Flyers finish behind Xavier, that likely will be good enough to get in.

Rhode Island (12-6, 1-2; RPI: 52; SOS: 56)

It's likely another season of "what might have been" for the Rams. They've lost at Duke, at Providence, to Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City and to Xavier by a total of 10 points and also lost to St. Joe's in OT (and to Villanova, too). The computer numbers are more "who they played" than "who they beat."

Mountain West

LOCKS

None

BYU looked like it was in solid shape a couple of weeks ago, but a pair of losses has the Cougars sliding back toward the pack. Utah and UNLV have been all over the place, but historically, the second-place team in this league has a very good chance of making the NCAAs.

IN THE MIX

BYU (13-3, 2-1; RPI: 33; SOS: 62)

An overturned buzzer-beater denied BYU a win over Arizona State. They finally were beaten at home by Wake Forest (no shame there). Of more concern is the pounding the Cougars took at New Mexico on Saturday and the fact that their nonconference slate is weak. A big 10 days ahead: BYU hosts UNLV and San Diego State before heading to Utah.

Utah (12-5, 3-1; RPI: 21; SOS: 13)

The Utes profile looks pretty solid ... until you realize they lost at home to Division II Southwest Baptist, which doesn't count in the RPI. They also lost at Idaho State in addition to Oklahoma, Utah State and Cal. They have beaten Gonzaga, LSU and Ole Miss, pre-Chris Warren injury. In league play, they've already lost at San Diego State, so they're 0-1 against the other three contenders.

San Diego State (10-4, 2-1; RPI: 58; SOS: 92)

The Aztecs missed three chances for good non-league wins (Arizona State, St. Mary's and Arizona), so they'll need to do real work in MWC play to have a case come March. Losing at Wyoming last week won't help that cause.

UNLV (14-4, 2-2; RPI: 53; SOS: 116)

The win at Louisville will look huge if the Cardinals continue their surge, but is it enough? UNLV also beat Arizona but lost to Cal and Cincinnati in Vegas. Road losses at TCU and Colorado State are a bad way to start off league play, especially with a trip to BYU up next.

Others

LOCKS

Memphis, Butler

This is shaping up to be a very disappointing year for conferences outside the high- and sort-of-high majors. The Missouri Valley looks to be one-bid at this stage. The CAA looks distinctly one-bid, and if the right teams win the automatic bids, the Horizon, MAAC, MAC and SoCon will be, too. The WCC very well could get two, and the WAC has an outside shot at two bids, as well.

SHOULD BE IN

Davidson (13-3, 7-0; RPI: 31; SOS: 75)

They're not as good as last year, but they're still plenty dangerous. Would they make it as an at-large? They'll likely have a better computer profile than comparable teams from past seasons like Winthrop and last year's Davidson team, but the margin for error is very thin in the SoCon after they missed on their biggest non-league chances (Duke, Oklahoma) and got whacked by Purdue. Better keep winning.

Gonzaga (11-4, 3-0; RPI: 34; SOS: 29)

It's been a tale of two seasons for the Zags. A 7-0 start included wins over Oklahoma State, Maryland, Tennessee, Indiana and Washington State. Then Gonzaga lost at Arizona, to UConn in overtime in Seattle, at home to Big Sky Portland State and at Utah. Then Gonzaga beat Tennessee again, this time on the road. The Zags face Saint Mary's for top billing in the WCC on Jan. 29 and Feb. 12.

Saint Mary's (15-1, 4-0; RPI: 51; SOS: 267)

Gonzaga's rival in the WCC is off to a great start, but don't let the computer numbers fool you. This team has a lot of talent, with Patty Mills, Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan comprising a very formidable core. The nonconference schedule doesn't look good on the computers, but beating Providence, Kent State, San Diego State, Oregon and Southern Illinois in succession, three of them on the road, isn't shabby.

IN THE MIX

Siena (14-5, 8-0; RPI: 29; SOS: 32)

The Saints went the Davidson 2008 route -- schedule a bunch of big-time nonconference games and hope you nick a couple to build a fallback to an automatic bid. Unfortunately, for Siena, it didn't win any of them, so the Saints almost certainly have to win the MAAC tournament.

Miami (Ohio) (9-6, 2-1; RPI: 36; SOS: 18)

The RedHawks are better than their record, but a series of close losses to good teams (UCLA, Xavier, Dayton) and a blowout loss to West Virginia hurts their chances.

Utah State (16-1, 5-0; RPI: 46; SOS: 224)

This is a team that should be getting more pub, and it's also a program that's used to NCAA snubs, partly due to its annually soft nonconference schedules. This season, the Aggies' only loss is by five at a neutral site to BYU. They beat Utah at home and remain perfect in the WAC. Utah State is an extremely good shooting team and could be dangerous March.

UAB (10-7, 1-2; RPI: 47; SOS: 27)

The Blazers had numerous chances this season to make a statement, but their win at Arizona has lost a lot of luster and losses to Oklahoma, BC, Cincy, Louisville and Butler don't get you and at-large. Neither do double-digit losses at Houston and Memphis in conference play.

George Mason (14-3, 7-0; RPI: 48; SOS: 184)

The Patriots are the best (maybe only?) chance for an at-large from the CAA and that might be asking a lot this season. The problem: They lost at Hampton and Liberty in nonconference play and don't have any good wins (0-1 vs. top 50).

Illinois State (16-2, 5-2; RPI: 49; SOS: 233)

Similar to George Mason, the Redbirds might be the only real threat for an at-large out of the Missouri Valley, but their nonconference slate was very weak, which leaves them almost no room for error in league play.

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