Bubble watch (cont.)

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State
The Spartans made easy work of Minnesota and Indiana at home to maintain a two-game lead at the top of the league. They're still very much in the mix for a two-seed in the NCAAs.

SHOULD BE IN
Ohio State (17-5, 7-4; RPI: 19, SOS: 35) made it four straight with home wins over Purdue and Minnesota, which helped them climb the Big Ten ladder this week. They have nonleague wins over Miami, Notre Dame and Butler, which help. The struggling Illinois (19-5, 7-4; RPI: 17, SOS: 44) offense finally revived a bit as the Illini throttled Purdue on Sunday. They now have two winnable road games at Northwestern and Indiana. Purdue (17-6, 6-4; RPI: 35, SOS: 60) took a half-step back with an overtime loss at Ohio State preceding the defeat at Illinois. They need to get Robbie Hummel back. Worth noting: Purdue still has to play Michigan State twice.

The bad news for Minnesota (17-5, 6-5, RPI: 25, SOS: 41)? It was routed at Michigan State and then fell short at Ohio State. The good news? The Gophers are done with the league's top three and have four home games left against the bottom half of the league. As long as they take care of business the Gophers should be fine.

IN THE MIX
So much for that Penn State (17-7, 6-5; RPI: 68, SOS: 147) surge. The Nittany Lions were routed at Michigan and shut down at home by Wisconsin. With three of their next four on the road at Purdue, Illinois and Ohio State, these Ls could prove costly. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (13-9, 5-6, RPI: 37, SOS: 2) won a pair to right the ship for now. Michigan (14-9, 5-6; RPI: 48, SOS: 14) blasted Penn State and then came up a bit short at UConn -- no shame there, but a missed chance to add to UCLA and Duke wins on the profile. Northwestern (13-8, 4-6; RPI: 61, SOS: 43) couldn't afford to lose at struggling Iowa. This next stretch -- home to Illinois, Michigan and Ohio State -- is make-or-break.

Pac-10

Locks: UCLA
The Bruins took full advantage of its four-game homestand to assume top-dog status in the league. With a season-ending home weekend against the Oregon schools, it's hard to find a way for the Bruins to miss at this point, so they're locked up.

SHOULD BE IN
Washington (17-6, 8-3; RPI: 21; SOS: 17) bounced back from a disappointing effort at Cal to beat Stanford and remain ahead of Arizona State (18-5, 7-4, RPI: 41, SOS: 95), which beat Oregon and Oregon State on the road. A bigger test awaits Thursday night when the Sun Devils host UCLA. They're still struggling badly from the three-point arc, shooting 26.2 percent in their last seven games. Five of the last seven are at home. California (18-6, 7-4; RPI: 29, SOS: 45) had a strong weekend, taking out both Washington schools at home with a revived offense that had its best efficiency performances since a Jan. 4 win over Arizona State.

IN THE MIX
USC's (15-7, 6-4; RPI: 40, SOS: 22) lone outing of the week didn't go well at UCLA. Now the Trojans need to get something done down in Arizona. Arizona (16-8, 6-5; RPI: 53, SOS: 66) got both ends of the must-get Oregon road trip. Now they have a big home game against USC Thursday in advance of a Saturday matinee against UCLA.

SEC

Locks: None.
Things are starting to look a lot like football season in this conference, with Florida and LSU the divisional flagbearers. This wasn't a good week for many of the at-large candidates, with Kentucky fans rightfully being the most concerned.

SHOULD BE IN
After holding off South Carolina to get a season split and take over first place in the East, Florida (19-4, 6-2; RPI: 30, SOS: 106) had the rest of the week off. Just asking: What was up with the modest crowd at the O-Dome against the Gamecocks?

IN THE MIX
South Carolina (17-5, 6-3; RPI: 43, RPI: 80) couldn't quite get it done at Florida, but handled Georgia to remain squarely in the mix. Remember, the Gamecocks get Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky all at home down the stretch, but up next is an important road trip to Alabama and Mississippi State. Tennessee (14-8, 5-3; RPI: 20, SOS: 1) couldn't escape by the skin of its teeth a second time, losing in the final seconds at Auburn after edging Arkansas. That's a disappointing loss for a team that looked to have turned the corner a bit. They get Georgia and Vandy at home this week, which needs to be two wins. Worth considering: The Vols are like the bizarro Gamecocks, in that they have road games remaining at Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina. They also have the most nonleague plusses on their resume.

LSU (19-4, 7-1; RPI: 54, SOS: 131) hasn't had the schedule Tennessee's had, but it does have many more wins. The Tigers rolled past Alabama to continue its West division surge, and already has beaten both South Carolina and Tennessee. The Tigers get Florida and Kentucky back-to-back in late February, which will help establish pecking order. This three-game homestand is not going the way Kentucky (16-7, 5-3; RPI: 75, SOS: 96) wanted. After losing to South Carolina and then absorbing Mississippi State's three-point assault last Tuesday, tomorrow's game against Florida is now really critical. The Cats are pretty clearly fifth in the league pecking order right now, their schedule the rest of the way is not easy, and they currently have an RPI that would be the worst ever for an at-large NCAA team. Mississippi State (15-7, 6-2; RPI: 82, SOS: 79) is behind LSU in the West division, but needs many more wins to make up for its barren nonleague resume.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier
A loss at Duquesne might dent X's seeding, but the Musketeers are in no danger of missing the NCAAs, especially after Dayton returned the favor and lost at Charlotte on Sunday.

SHOULD BE IN
Dayton (21-3, 7-2; RPI: 26, SOS: 145) saw its run end Sunday in Charlotte but still has an overall profile that's worthy of a bid.

IN THE MIX
Temple (13-9, 5-3; RPI: 46, SOS: 31) needed to beat Xavier in Cincy and couldn't get it done. Edging Rhode Island is fine, but the Owls need more. Saint Joseph's (14-8, 7-1; RPI: 72, SOS: 52) rallied at UMass to keep the dream alive. The Hawks are now tied in the loss column with Xavier and one ahead of Dayton, with a string of winnable games on tap.

Mountain West

Locks: None
There's finally some separation at the top of the league, which is not good news for BYU and UNLV.

SHOULD BE IN
Utah (16-5, 7-2; RPI: 11, SOS: 11) won road games at TCU and Wyoming to keep pace with league co-leader San Diego State, which visits Salt Lake City on Wednesday. The Utes have a weird profile. There are two terrible nonleague losses (home to non-DI Southwest Baptist and at Idaho State). They also lost to Cal and at Oklahoma and Utah State, while beating Gonzaga, LSU and Ole Miss. The computer numbers are better than that actual performance, but they have the best resume in the league right now and look well-positioned schedule-wise.

IN THE MIX
San Diego State (15-5, 7-2; RPI: 47, SOS: 81) got a huge overtime win at UNLV and backed it up by throttling Air Force to get to 7-2 in the league. The Aztecs now have a chance to sweep Utah and take over first on Wednesday. They have a tougher schedule than the Utes (also at New Mexico and TCU, with BYU and UNLV at home) and have less in their nonleague slate, so winning the league is paramount for them. Remember that "favorable" schedule mentioned last week for UNLV (17-6, 5-4; RPI: 56, SOS: 94)? Well, two overtime losses later, the Rebels are in fifth place in the league and in some trouble. There's only so far the win at Louisville can take them, and they'll be at least two games behind the SDSU-Utah winner with six games left. A comparison with BYU (16-5, 5-3; RPI: 34, SOS: 47) is very interesting. UNLV won in Provo and the Cougars' best nonleague win (Utah State) isn't Louisville, even though they have better computer numbers. There's not a lot separating these three teams at the moment, which makes league finish critical.

Others

Locks: Memphis, Butler
Butler's loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay made things a lot tighter in the Horizon, but it doesn't impact the Bulldogs' lock status. Memphis flexed its muscle in Spokane Saturday night. The odds remain that no other league besides C-USA, the Horizon, the WCC and the SoCon have a chance for multiple bids, and even the WCC's quest may have been damaged by Patty Mills' injury.

SHOULD BE IN
After Saturday night's thrashing by Memphis, Gonzaga (16-5, 8-0; RPI: 38, SOS: 69) should feel even more fortunate that Patty Mills' hand injury altered the WCC race. Earlier in the week, the Zags did what they needed to do, winning at second-place Portland. Now two games up on the field, a regular-season league title looks almost certain and that would be enough to get them in.

Utah State (22-1, 11-0; RPI: 33, SOS: 203) gets a deserved bump this week. The Aggies still must travel to second-place Boise State and third-place Nevada in addition to a road game at struggling Saint Mary's in the BracketBusters, so they'll need to keep taking care of business.

IN THE MIX
Saint Mary's (17-4, 6-3; RPI: 60; SOS: 239) lost at Santa Clara Saturday and remains in third place in the league. The Gaels now have four straight home games against Gonzaga, Portland, San Diego and then Utah State in BracketBusters, but they continue to carry a Patty Mills-sized asterisk. The big question: Assuming they get Mills back healthy before the end of the season, how much does this stretch even matter? There are no great wins with him, but they did beat Providence and San Diego State on neutral courts and won at Oregon (along with everyone else). They also could wind up 20-2 with Mills should they finish third or fourth in the league and ultimately lose to Gonzaga in the WCC title game. That wouldn't be good enough for an at-large?

Davidson (19-4, 13-1; RPI: 49, SOS: 132) burned one of its safety nets on Saturday, losing by two at home to a solid Charleston team to end its 43-game SoCon winning streak. The game was on national TV and the Wildcats didn't look particularly good, with Stephen Curry shooting blanks after halftime. This now makes the BracketBusters home game against Butler very important. It seems less likely that Davidson could now lose that one and not win the automatic bid and still get in. Beating West Virginia and N.C. State isn't a ton to fall back on, with a tough loss at Oklahoma and lopsided Ls against Purdue and Duke the other measuring sticks.

Another team that might be down to its final loss is Siena (18-6, 12-1; RPI: 28, SOS: 50), which got nipped at rival Rider on Saturday. The Saints whiffed on every nonleague chance they had and drawing Northern Iowa in the BracketBusters isn't a plus.

ON THE PERIPHERY
Terrible midweek losses for both Northeastern (16-7, 11-2; RPI: 65, SOS: 136) and VCU (17-7, 10-3, RPI: 73, SOS: 133) make it a virtual certainty that the CAA will only get one bid this season. The league is having a MAC-type season, with some solid teams cannibalizing one another.

Northern Iowa (16-7, 11-2; RPI: 79; SOS: 166) still leads the Valley, but a home loss to Creighton puts a major dent in whatever modest at-large hopes the Panthers had. Second-place is now owned by Creighton (19-6, 9-4; RPI: 70, SOS: 152), which beat Dayton and Saint Joe's in nonleague play, after Illinois State (19-5, 8-5; RPI: 52, SOS: 223), had an awful home overtime loss to Indiana State on Sunday.

Can a second team make it from C-USA if Memphis wins the automatic bid (again)? UAB (16-8, 6-3; RPI: 32, SOS: 32), which won at Arizona, is trying to stake a claim, but the Blazers will need to finish ahead of Tulsa (16-7, 7-2, RPI: 71, SOS: 113), which beat Texas A&M. In the MAC, Miami, Ohio (14-7, 7-2; RPI: 58, SOS: 84) continues to maintain the best computer profile, but the RedHawks are still looking up at Buffalo (16-5, 8-1; RPI: 60, SOS: 203).

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