Could 2009 be a tournament of medocrity (cont.)

Big East

Locks: Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova

Pitt at UConn on Monday could have important seeding and location implications a month from now. Louisville, Marquette and newcomer Villanova all suffered decisive losses this week, but their overall résumés are strong enough barring epic collapses. Marquette's seeding watch should be interesting. The Golden Eagles have a brutal final five after hosting Seton Hall on Tuesday.

SHOULD BE IN

Syracuse (18-7, 7-6; RPI: 21, SOS: 21) avoided a really damaging collapse at home to Georgetown, which ended a stretch of five losses in six games. The Orange now will have eight days to prep for Villanova at home before three more winnable games follow. Their non-league performance -- neutral-site wins over Florida and Kansas and a victory at Memphis -- continues to help. West Virginia (17-8, 6-6; RPI: 17; SOS: 8) really needed that rout of Villanova last Friday night to kickoff a final stretch of winnable games that should help consolidate the Mountaineers' standing.

IN THE MIX

Cincinnati (16-9, 7-6, RPI: 50, SOS: 23) couldn't stay with Pitt on the road, but now has a week to rest before huge home games against Louisville and West Virginia. Providence (16-9, 8-5; RPI: 65; SOS: 52) did what it had to do, winning at South Florida and over St. John's, to keep its hopes alive. Four of the Friars' final five are at Louisville and Villanova and home to Notre Dame and Pitt, so if they get to the 11-7 mark they might need, it will be well-earned.

Georgetown (13-10, 4-8; RPI: 36; SOS: 1) drops out of this week's bracket after the overtime heartbreaker at Syracuse. Would 8-10 in the conference be enough for consideration? That's no lock with the Hoyas' remaining schedule. Wins over Memphis and UConn are good, but would not offset 30 games of mediocrity. Lose seven straight and then blast Louisville by 33? That's what Notre Dame (13-10, 5-7; RPI: 71; SOS: 38) did before handling USF at home. The dream isn't dead yet, but with trips left to West Virginia, Providence and UConn, it will take some doing.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State

The Spartans locked down in-state rival Michigan in a Big Ten defensive special. With all the churn around them, MSU is looking better and better for a two-seed.

SHOULD BE IN

Illinois (19-5, 7-4; RPI: 17; SOS: 44) pulled off a miraculous rally at Northwestern before handling Indiana. Purdue (19-6, 8-4; RPI: 28, SOS: 44) got Robbie Hummel back against Iowa, but still is struggling offensively. Good thing they allowed a total of 92 points in wins over Penn State and at Iowa. The first of two against Michigan State is on tap at home Tuesday. Ohio State (17-6, 7-5; RPI: 26; SOS: 33) lost its only game of the week, at recovering Wisconsin. The Buckeyes' non-league wins over Miami, Butler and (even) Notre Dame should help.

IN THE MIX

Minnesota (18-6, 7-6, RPI: 35; SOS: 54) didn't score for about an hour down the stretch at Penn State and suffered an impactful loss. The Gophers' win over Louisville continues to help, but with a last five all against mid-level peers in the league (including a home-and-home with Michigan), it's all in front of them to take care of on their own. Wisconsin (15-9, 7-6, RPI: 27, SOS: 4) has now run off four-straight wins after six-straight defeats, which in this wacky season puts them squarely back in the mix. The Badgers also have yet to play either game against Indiana, so 10 or even 11 Big Ten wins isn't out of the question. The win at Virginia Tech could be an interesting tiebreaker should those teams come down to an at-large comparison.

Penn State (18-8, 7-6; RPI: 72; SOS: 107) stopped its three-game skid by beating Minnesota. The Nittany Lions' hopes may be on the line this week at Illinois and Ohio State. Michigan (15-10, 6-7; RPI: 57, SOS: 17) kept slim hopes alive by beating Northwestern in overtime Sunday.

Pac-10

Locks: UCLA, Washington, Arizona State

UCLA shouldn't drop out of lock status because of two road losses, but the Bruins also don't have the best profile in the league anymore, and they might not even be second right now. As such, it was either move the Bruins down or move the Huskies and Sun Devils up. The latter was the choice, given that the Pac-10 will certainly get at least three teams in, and looks much more poised for five or six. These teams continue to play one another, so there should be better separation as we move forward.

SHOULD BE IN

California (19-6, 8-4; RPI: 23; SOS: 34) beat Stanford in its only action of the week to stay on track for an at-large.

IN THE MIX

Look who's moving up ... Arizona (18-8, 8-5; RPI: 44, SOS: 43) finished off a huge home sweep of the L.A. schools with a nationally televised beatdown of UCLA to make it seven-straight wins. The next three are on the road, starting at rival Arizona State in the rematch of their January slogfest in Tucson, which is the Wildcats' last loss. Maybe the Budinger face stomp really did wake this team up? USC (15-9, 6-6; RPI: 45, SOS: 20) took the same 0-fer in Arizona as UCLA, but doesn't have nearly the buffer. The Trojans better bounce back quickly at home.

SEC

Locks: None.

Another week and more results that cloud the picture in the nation's wackiest major conference. Last week, Florida looked like the East's flagbearer. Now the Gators are in fourth place in their division. Thankfully, these teams will keep playing each other down the stretch, which will clarify this mess.

SHOULD BE IN

LSU (21-4, 9-1; RPI: 42; SOS: 113) might not have the best résumé (or draw the best seed this week), but the Tigers are best positioned to make the NCAAs right now, so they get the bump to this level. They stand a very solid chance of having the best regular-season record, and wins over South Carolina and at Tennessee help counter arguments about their advantage of playing in the West division. They still get Florida at home and play at Kentucky in late February.

IN THE MIX

Of the SEC East tri-leaders, Tennessee (16-8, 7-3; RPI: 19; SOS: 2) has the best current résumé but remains in a very volatile position due to its remaining schedule, which includes road games at Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina. South Carolina (18-5, 7-3; RPI: 40; RPI: 92) is a better bet to finish ahead of the Vols in the division after slipping past Alabama on the road. If the Gamecocks can navigate a tricky roadie at Mississippi State and then beat enigmatic Arkansas at home, they will be in very good shape with Kentucky and Tennessee both coming to Columbia.

A tough loss at Kentucky is understandable, but losing at previously 0-9 Georgia was a huge mistake for Florida (19-6, 6-4; RPI: 46; SOS: 105), which now finds itself with a weakened computer profile and behind three teams in its own division. Beating Alabama and Vanderbilt at home this week is now essential ahead of a rough final four games. What more can you say about Jodie Meeks other than he probably saved Kentucky's (18-7, 7-3; RPI: 58, SOS: 88) season? Well, for starters, he has an extremely strong case for national Player of the Year (more on that later this week). As for his team, beating Florida at home was a must and the Cats followed it up with a solid win at Arkansas. This is another team that could go hard in either direction. After a trip to Vandy (never easy), it's Tennessee, at South Carolina and LSU in a row. Fun.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier

The good news: This is almost certainly going to be a two-bid league. The bad news: Unless Temple pulls another patented late-season surge, that's where it will end this season for the A-10 barring a surprise automatic-bid winner.

SHOULD BE IN

Dayton (23-3, 9-2; RPI: 25, SOS: 134) beat Xavier and Richmond to move into a tie for first with the Musketeers. Barring injury or a huge collapse against a tough schedule, the Flyers are going dancing.

IN THE MIX

Temple (15-9, 6-3; RPI: 37, SOS: 25) probably will need a run similar to last season's to make it, and that could include needing to win the auto bid again, but at least the Owls are still alive.

Mountain West

Locks: None

Utah's huge home win over San Diego State was the only impactful result this week as the four teams in the mix all won the rest of their games against lesser competition.

SHOULD BE IN

Two more wins for Utah (18-6, 9-2; RPI: 11; SOS: 15), including a victory over then co-leader San Diego State, and the Utes edge ever closer to lock status. The wins over Gonzaga and LSU continue to help offset ugly defeats to non-DI Southwest Baptist and at Idaho State. A regular-season title in this league is a ticket to the NCAAs, and the Utes are in position to get there. After a trip to Colorado State this week, games against UNLV and then at BYU and New Mexico will decide things.

IN THE MIX

San Diego State (16-6, 8-3; RPI: 47, SOS: 73) missed at Utah and now has a huge week-plus coming up with a trip to New Mexico ahead of a visit from BYU. Winning the league remains paramount for the Aztecs as their non-league slate is pretty dry. UNLV (19-6, 7-4; RPI: 54, SOS: 104) got home wins over struggling TCU and Colorado State to remain in the hunt. The Rebels have to avoid tripping at Wyoming ahead of next Saturday's visit from BYU. Trips to Utah and San Diego State remain beyond that, so this is a very big week for the Louisville-slayers. Speaking of BYU (18-5, 7-3; RPI: 34; SOS: 63), the Cougars have won four straight heading into a season-defining four game stretch: New Mexico, at UNLV, at SDSU, Utah. UNLV (on the road) and Utah have already beaten BYU, which has beaten SDSU at home.

Others

Locks: Memphis, Butler

The Tigers and Bulldogs are in the clear in C-USA and the Horizon, respectively. It looks almost certain that no other league besides those two, the WCC and the SoCon have a chance for multiple bids, and the WCC's quest may have been badly damaged by Patty Mills' hand injury.

SHOULD BE IN

When Gonzaga (18-5, 10-0; RPI: 29; SOS: 57) clinches the WCC regular-season crown, the Bulldogs will move to lock status. Utah State (23-2, 12-1; RPI: 33, SOS: 163) found out that you don't just walk into Idaho and sweep a WAC road trip. The Aggies lost their first league game, at Boise State, and now need to be a touch more careful down the stretch. They're going to win the WAC regular-season crown, but could a team with such a weak SOS and just a 3-2 record currently against the RPI Top 100 absorb losses at Mills-less St. Mary's, at Nevada and in the WAC tournament? That would be begging the committee to leave them out.

IN THE MIX

Saint Mary's (17-4, 6-3; RPI: 60; SOS: 239) actually had a helpful week despite splitting at home. They took Gonzaga to the wire and beat second-place Portland by 12 to show they have stabilized a bit without Mills. Now they get San Diego and Utah State at home this week. Every win helps, but the most important thing remains getting Mills back and winning games with him at the end of the season.

Saturday's win over Furman could come with a huge price for Davidson (21-4, 15-1; RPI: 49; SOS: 146), as Stephen Curry suffered what looked like a pretty nasty ankle sprain. If he's not available or is limited for the BracketBusters game against Butler, that looks like a home loss, which will hurt. Like St. Mary's, Davidson would have to get Curry back healthy before the end of the season to get any benefit of the doubt in selection should they lose in the SoCon tourney. This is looking more and more like the Wildcats may need to win the auto bid, though. They are a borderline at-large case as is, with Curry.

Siena (20-6, 14-1; RPI: 30; SOS: 55) won twice more and continues to run away in the MAAC. Seeing Northern Iowa, their BracketBusters opponent, lose again in the Valley wasn't good news. The automatic bid remains Siena's best plan, but another loss before the league tourney probably makes that a necessity.

ON THE PERIPHERY

The best hope for a Valley at-large is Creighton (21-6, 11-4; RPI: 53, SOS: 135), which beat Dayton, New Mexico and Saint Joe's in non-league play but could pay the price for two-point Ls at UALR and Nebraska. They need to, at the very least, catch Northern Iowa and share the league crown; currently, the Bluejays are a game back with three to go and split their series with the Panthers. They also get a winnable and decently helpful home game with George Mason (17-8, 10-5; RPI: 56; SOS: 93) in BracketBusters on Saturday.

The CAA isn't getting an at-large bid, but could have the most competitive conference tournament in the country. Seven of the league's 12 teams are 9-6 or better, with VCU (18-8, 11-4, RPI: 73; SOS: 133) and Northeastern (16-9, 11-4; RPI: 78; SOS: 123) leading by a game over Mason. Finishing as the one-seed means a much easier quarterfinal draw, which could be a huge advantage in the push for the auto bid.

UAB (16-8, 6-3; RPI: 32, SOS: 32) keeps winning and, on paper, appears to be the sole C-USA hope for an at-large if Memphis wins the automatic bid, but the Blazers have lost to Houston and Tulsa, which makes that argument harder as those clubs all jostle for second place.

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