Left-for-dead teams showing life again in the latest Bubble Watch (cont.)

Mountain West

Locks: None
Once Utah (or someone else) clinches at least a share of the regular-season crown, they'll bump up. The Utes have a two-game cushion, but might need all of it with the run-in they have on tap.

SHOULD BE IN
Utah (19-6, 10-2; RPI: 10; SOS: 18) escaped in Colorado State in overtime to remain solidly in front in the MWC. The league title basically will be determined over the next three games when the Utes host UNLV before heading to BYU and surging New Mexico. The home game Wednesday against the Rebels is very big for both teams.

IN THE MIX
What comes next is an SEC East-style free-for-all, complicated by UNLV holding off BYU and New Mexico plastering San Diego State over the weekend. How about another table?

Team Record vs. Others Remaining games Notes UNLV 3-2 at SDSU Swept BYU, has marquee win over Louisville, beat Utah; currently in fifth place, must go to Utah in addition to SDSU. San Diego St. 2-2 BYU, UNLV Won at UNLV, split with Utah. New Mexico 3-3 None Lobos are done with peer games. Host Utah and also play bottom three in league. BYU 2-3 at SDSU Best computer profile; swept by UNLV. Hosts Utah after losing in OT in Salt Lake City.

What does this all mean? Well, New Mexico is a sneaky pick to finish second -- or even catch Utah -- given its remaining schedule. That would really complicate things, because the Lobos arguably have the worst at-large profile at the moment (worst RPI, 4-8 road/neutral, 2-4 Top 50 mark). Meanwhile, BYU has the best overall computer profile, but could end up finishing last in a head-to-head comparison of relevant conference play.

How's all this sort out? Here's a best guess at a batting order, given accomplishment and relative league positioning.

If UNLV (20-7, 8-5; RPI: 51, SOS: 85) hadn't gotten tripped up at Wyoming, this would be a lot easier of a decision. Or if they hadn't lost back-to-back OT games earlier this month. Now, even with the win over BYU on Saturday, the Rebels are still a loss behind the three teams tied for second. Still, they're 5-2 against the RPI Top 50 and if they can get a split of the road games at Utah and SDSU, they should be in decent shape, having already beaten the Utes and swept BYU. The Louisville win also is better than anything anyone else is this race has out of league.

BYU's (19-6, 8-4; RPI: 30; SOS: 49) profile has some Oklahoma State in it. It's unclear exactly why it ranks so favorably in the RPI. The Cougars beat Utah State and really no one else, losing on a buzzer-nonbeater against Arizona State and a close one to Wake Forest. Last week, they beat New Mexico at home but then were held off by UNLV for a Rebels sweep of that season series. This week is huge, too, with games at SDSU and home to Utah.

San Diego State (16-7, 8-4; RPI: 48, SOS: 64) had one game this week and was hammered at New Mexico, which certainly doesn't help the Aztecs' cause. They're still in good league position, though, with both BYU and UNLV left at home. The other two are home to Colorado State and at fading TCU.

New Mexico (17-10, 8-4; RPI: 71, SOS: 69) set a modern-era record by getting an at-large with an RPI of 74 in 1999. Can lightning strike twice for the surging Lobos? They have split all three series with the competing teams and get Utah at home along with three very winnable games left. Non-league play was a washout, with a win over Ole Miss and a sweep of in-state rival New Mexico State the only possible plusses.

Others

Locks: Memphis, Gonzaga
Memphis has a new partner this week as WCC champ Gonzaga joins the party. The Zags' RPI was adversely affected by beating LMU and Pepperdine last week (combined record: 10-46), but they did a decent amount of good work against a brutal non-league slate and have run away with the league title. RPI comparisons to Butler aside, they should be in and would be higher seeded than the other Bulldogs right now.

The other big development is Creighton's surge in the Missouri Valley. Could the Bluejays force the committee's hand with an outright league title and MVC title game loss?

SHOULD BE IN
It still should get in, but Butler (22-4, 13-3; RPI: 21, SOS: 92) was wise to take care of business at Davidson in BracketBusters on Saturday, as two straight league losses had brought the Bulldogs back to the Horizon pack and deflated their RPI. An outright league title would still be a good idea, as with five teams sporting league records of at least 10-6, the league tournament will be extremely competitive. The Bulldogs can accomplish that with home wins over Youngstown State and Cleveland State. If they drop the game to Cleveland State, it seems they also could be trumped for the 1-seed (and homecourt advantage) if UWGB wins its last two. Beating Xavier and UAB in non-league play is decent support for an at-large.

Weird ... Utah State (24-3, 12-1; RPI: 28, SOS: 140) beat transitional D-I Cal State Bakersfield and lost at Patty Mills-less Saint Mary's in BracketBusters, and the Aggies' RPI improved from last week? Meanwhile, Gonzaga won two league home games and dropped 14 spots. That's example No. 5,725,398 why you can't trust that calculation in a vacuum. Even though it was on the road, Saturday was a bad loss for a team that beat Utah by a deuce for its only Top 50 win of the season. It was a classic low-upside, high-downside game. That said, the Aggies have clinched at least a tie for the WAC title and should grab the crown outright against Hawaii on Thursday. Would that be enough to insulate them in case of a loss at Nevada and then a loss in the WAC tourney ... ?

IN THE MIX
Siena (22-6, 15-1; RPI: 24; SOS: 67) whiffed on every big chance in non-league play, but is rolling through a much better league than Davidson if it comes down to a comparison of those two. KenPom.com rates the MAAC as the nation's 15th-best league compared to the SoCon, which is 25th. The Saints have far better computer numbers and having watched both teams numerous times this season, they subjectively look like a better team, too. They handled Valley foe Northern Iowa in BracketBusters but now probably needs to win at second-place Niagara Friday night to feel good about things heading into the MAAC tourney, which they again will host. Siena doesn't have a Top 50 win, but is 5-0 against 51-100.

Saint Mary's (20-5, 8-4; RPI: 52; SOS: 142) got itself a very nice win over Utah State in BracketBusters, showing the committee it has stabilized nicely in Patty Mills' absence. If they can get Mills back and start winning with him, they should get significant credit for what happened in his absence, and their "with Mills" profile very well could be at-large worthy.

Creighton (23-6, 12-4; RPI: 47, SOS: 119) continues its late-season push, making it eight in a row with a BracketBusters win over solid CAA foe George Mason. The Bluejays might not be guaranteed the 1-seed in Arch Madness even if they win their last two -- which could be big, because it could require a semifinal date with Illinois State -- but would the committee shun a 27-win team from the 10th-rated conference if Creighton wins out until the Valley final? The Bluejays beat Dayton, New Mexico and Saint Joe's out of conference.

CBS officials likely will be rooting very hard for Davidson (21-6, 15-2; RPI: 59; SOS: 113) to win the SoCon's auto bid, because at this point, the Wildcats shouldn't get in as an at-large. Without Steph Curry, they were buried at home by The Citadel, and with a clearly ailing Curry, they lost at home to Butler in BracketBusters. Here's what Davidson will have to offer: Wins over West Virginia and N.C. State (its only two wins over the RPI Top 100) and potentially a 26-win season with a SoCon regular-season crown. It doesn't feel like enough. Just because the nation would like to see Curry in the NCAAs doesn't mean Davidson will have earned it if the Wildcats lose in Chattanooga in the conference tourney.

ON THE PERIPHERY
All this winning is nice, but if UAB (19-8, 9-3; RPI: 39, SOS: 71) wants real at-large consideration, the Blazers need to beat Memphis at home on Thursday.

The CAA probably saw its faint at-large chances evaporate in BracketBusters when both George Mason (18-9, 11-5; RPI: 54; SOS: 80) and VCU (19-9, 12-4, RPI: 72; SOS: 108) lost. The bigger deal now is the race for the 1-seed in the league tourney, as there are seven very solid teams in this league and the top seed will have a much easier quarterfinal game. If VCU can win at James Madison and then handle struggling Georgia State at home, it's all theirs. Otherwise, Northeastern, which won at VCU, has a chance to swipe it. Mason would need two losses by the Rams, as VCU beat Mason in the teams' only meeting.

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