Bubble watch (cont.)

Big East

Locks: Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova

You have to feel for Marquette, which went from thinking league title to losing Dominic James for the season and games to UConn and Louisville. The Golden Eagles could prove to be a sticky seeding decision for the committee.

SHOULD BE IN

West Virginia (20-9, 9-7; RPI: 20; SOS: 11) bounced back from a disappointing loss at Cincy to win at South Florida. With 0-16 DePaul coming to Morgantown next, this should be a sure 10 Big East wins, with a crack at Louisville at home in the season finale to really lock things up. Syracuse (20-8, 9-7; RPI: 25, SOS: 18) took care of business, destroying St. John's and Cincinnati. The Orange have a similar deal as WVU with Rutgers on Tuesday that should mean 10 conference wins and a shot at wounded Marquette after that. Wins away from the Dome over Florida, Kansas and at Memphis likely make 10-8 good enough, though.

IN THE MIX

Providence (18-10, 10-7; RPI: 71; SOS: 40) pulled off a huge upset of Pitt and then backed it up by getting past Rutgers on the road. Thursday night at Villanova is a real difference-maker. Getting to 11 Big East wins would be huge, even though the quality of them is mostly low and the Friars remain just 2-7 against the RPI top 50. They also could finish multiple games ahead of Cincinnati and swept the Bearcats, which would be difficult for the committee to overlook.

Beating Bob Huggins and WVU at home: good (and a satisfying 2-0 for Nancy Zimpher). Getting immolated at Syracuse: bad. Now Cincinnati (17-11, 8-8, RPI: 51, SOS: 21) really needs to be thinking two Ws at USF and home to Seton Hall. The Bearcats swept Georgetown and beat Notre Dame, which helps in comparison, especially if Cincy also finishes ahead of both teams in the standings. The 4-9 mark against the RPI top 50 is better than Providence's 2-7, but not good either.

Notre Dame (15-12, 7-9; RPI: 68; SOS: 49) gave it a solid shot but lost at UConn and now has no margin for error. The Irish are 3-10 against the RPI top 50 and, more damning, just 4-11 against the top 100 and 5-10 road/neutral. It will take a minimum of four-straight wins (to get to 9-9 and make the Big East quarters) and probably one more beyond that. First things first: Villanova comes calling tonight. Georgetown (15-12, 6-10; RPI: 40; SOS: 1) more or less has the same trajectory after upsetting Villanova. The Hoyas are at St. John's, home to DePaul, likely versus South Florida/Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tournament, and then someone of the Providence/WVU/Syracuse ilk in the Wednesday game. All four have to be wins. Then they'd have a shot at a marquee quarterfinal win and we'll see how far the Ws over UConn and Memphis and the No. 1 SOS can carry them. ND beat G'town by six at home, if that comes into play.

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois

The top three teams remain the same, and they've created quite a gap between the rest.

SHOULD BE IN

None.

IN THE MIX

The Big Ten tournament is going to be make or break for most of these teams. There could be a couple "two teams enter, one survives" games on tap.

What's the current order? Glad you asked.

Wisconsin (17-10, 9-7, RPI: 32, SOS: 4) rallied past Michigan for a huge home win on Sunday, moving into a tie for fourth with Penn State (with the tiebreaker on the Nittany Lions). With Indiana coming in for the season finale, 10 wins looks like a near certainty. Winning at Minnesota on Wednesday likely would mean 11 and would cripple a bubble buddy in the process. Barring significant bubble contraction, two wins in the next three games should be enough for the Badgers. They also won the only meeting with Ohio State (18-9, 8-8; RPI: 41; SOS: 27), which beat Penn State at home and then lost (badly) at Purdue. Now the Buckeyes have two tricky trap-type games, at Iowa and home to Northwestern. Losing either would be a big mistake, but neither is a given right now. Non-league wins over Miami, Butler and Notre Dame are decent, especially when they happened

Those two teams look to be ahead of the next batch of three, which is very closely lumped at this point. Michigan has the worst league mark but the best wins. Penn State has the league advantage but an embarrassing non-league SOS in the 320s. Minnesota is lumped in the middle. All five games so far among the three teams have been won by the home team. Michigan at Minnesota in the regular-season finale is just huge.

Minnesota (19-8, 8-8, RPI: 37; SOS: 52) couldn't get it done at Illinois, but still has a chance to play its way in. The Gophers close at home with Wisconsin and Michigan. Win both and the Gophers would be in good shape, having swept the Badgers and split with the Wolverines. A split means Minnesota would have to win its opening-round game at the Big Ten tourney and very likely its quarterfinal.

It wasn't easy but Penn State (20-9, 9-7; RPI: 64; SOS: 109) edged Indiana to split the week after losing at Ohio State. It gets harder from here, with Illinois coming for a rematch of The Game That Won't Be Mentioned ahead of a trip to Iowa. If the Nittany Lions split to finish 10-8 and stay in the league's top five, their quarterfinal game in the Big Ten tourney is a play-in game for the NCAAs.

Michigan (17-12, 8-9; RPI: 47, SOS: 10) fell just short at Wisconsin on Sunday, but the win over Purdue earlier in the week keeps the Wolverines' hopes alive, as wins over Duke and UCLA stand out in this bubble crowd. What's at stake at Minnesota on Saturday? A win gets the Wolverines to 9-9, gives them a sweep of the season series and puts them ahead of the Gophers and quite possibly the Nittany Lions. A loss more or less ends their NCAA hopes. No pressure.

Pac-10

Locks: Washington, Arizona State, UCLA

UCLA's back after edging Stanford and Cal on the road. We're all good, right, Bruin Nation?

SHOULD BE IN

Cal (21-8, 10-6; RPI: 36; SOS: 55) likely is one win away from locking things up after falling at home to UCLA in a battle for second place. It won't be easy at the Arizona schools, which will be angry (ASU) and desperate (UA) coming off getting swept on the Washington road trip.

IN THE MIX

It wasn't a good idea for Arizona (18-11, 8-8; RPI: 49, SOS: 36) to drop both in the Evergreen State. Now the Cats have Cal coming in on Thursday, which won't be easy. They really need to at least handle Stanford, if not sweep the home weekend. Ending up at 9-9 likely would leave them out of the first-round games, meaning they'd draw one of the top four teams in what could be a must-win quarterfinal.

USC (16-12, 7-9; RPI: 57, SOS: 13) had a disastrous trip to the Bay Area and now is in some trouble. This weekend is a mandatory sweep of the Oregon schools and then the Trojans very well might need to make the Pac-10 semis, depending on where they end up in the bracket and what happens around them. If we're still talking about the Trojans, then we have to mention suddenly searing Washington State (16-13, 8-9; RPI: 88, SOS: 62), which has beaten UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State in succession, sweeping the season series from the Sun Devils. The overall numbers are very weak right now, and the Cougars missed on four of their five legit non-league games, but what happens if they win at Washington on Saturday to finish 9-9 and then get two more upsets and make the Pac-10 final?