The Cardinals' season rides on Carpenter (cont.)

Carpenter's dominance stems from his mastery of four distinct pitches: a four-seam fastball that can reach 95 miles per hour, a two-seamer, a slider and a curveball that ranks among baseball's best, and, according to advanced statistics at fangraphs.com, vertically breaks an astounding 9.4 inches on average -- equal to baseball's reigning curveball king, Barry Zito. (Carpenter also occasionally throws a cutter and a change-up). "He's got all above-average pitches that he can locate anytime, any count, anywhere," Mets outfielder Ryan Church said. "Never gets into a pattern. It usually doesn't help to even look for certain pitches, but you've got to try. You've basically got to eliminate one of them, maybe two, and hope you get one of the other two."

The Cardinals' recent performance, not surprisingly, has been inextricably linked to Carpenter's presence, or lack thereof. He wins games by himself, of course, but at his best he is also an innings-eater who keeps the club's bullpen fresh, and an experienced competitor who sets the tone for his greener rotation-mates. The club made the playoffs after each of his largely healthy seasons, from '04 to '06, and won the World Series in the last of those. They missed the postseason with Carpenter on the sidelines in '07 and '08, and during that time won just four more games than they lost. Over the course of the 30 games this season that Carpenter spent on the DL, the Cardinals staff's ERA was a middling 4.47; when Carpenter has been active, the staff's cumulative ERA is 3.48, which would rank it as baseball's best.

That Pujols is the constant that has for years kept the Cardinals above water -- and, without whom, the club would be sunk -- is no secret to anyone, least of all Cardinals fans. I'll always remember covering a game early last season in St. Louis, during which it momentarily appeared that an awful Pujol-less future had arrived. Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez uncorked a first-inning wild pitch, and Pujols broke for home from third, but then thought better of it. He scrambled back to the bag and slid in, with his right arm stretched out to beat Garrett Atkins' tag. A moment later, Pujols stood doubled over in foul territory, clutching the arm. "This is about the worst thing that could happen right here," television play-by-play man Dan McLaughlin solemnly intoned in the FSN Midwest booth. The crowd gasped, and then fell silent, fearing the worst. When it turned out that Atkins had inadvertently spiked Pujols' hand during the play, and would be fine after a quick bandaging from a trainer, they cheered and cheered.

Carpenter, though -- or, rather, Carpenter's health -- is the variable that will determine whether St. Louis is able to win the competitive NL Central (they're currently tied for first with the Milwaukee Brewers) or fall back to the pack, and his longstanding fragility has the St. Louis faithful watching each pitch he throws with concern, and even dread.

"I do everything off the field, in the weight room and in the training room, to give myself the best chance to go out and be helpful," the soft-spoken Carpenter said. "If it's destined for me to be injured again, that's just what's going to happen."

One twinge in Carpenter's right arm, one grimace on his face, and the Cardinals' destiny will become instantly gloomy, no matter what the incomparable Pujols does.