Wild-Card Breakdown: Colts at Chargers

Chargers running back/kick returner Darren Sproles is expected to test the free-agent market this offseason. David Bergman/SI Related Links WILD-CARD BREAKDOWN: Ravens at Dolphins WILD-CARD BREAKDOWN: Falcons at Cardinals WILD-CARD BREAKDOWN: Eagles at Vikings

Breaking down Saturday's Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers wild-card matchup (8 p.m., NBC)...

Who Has The Edge At...

Quarterback: Even

Peyton Manning has sparked the Colts to a nine-game winning streak as he has completed over 71 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions over that span. Manning topped the 4,000-yard mark for the ninth time in his career, and compiled a 95.0 passer rating for the season. Philip Rivers has been equally as impressive in leading the Chargers to the AFC West title on the heels of a four-game winning streak. Rivers connected on 66 percent of his throws with 11 touchdowns and one interception during the span, and finished the regular season as the league-leader in passing touchdowns (34) and passer rating (105.5).

Running Back: Chargers

LaDainian Tomlinson has been hampered by nagging injuries for most of the season, but started to display his Pro Bowl form against the Broncos last week. However, he sat out the latter stages of the Broncos' game with a groin injury and may be limited this week. Darren Sproles replaced Tomlinson in the lineup and recorded the second 100-yard rushing game in his career. The Colts' anemic running game has been hampered by the absence of the oft-injured Joseph Addai.

Receivers: Colts

The Colts' Reggie Wayne topped the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth straight season while leading the team in receptions (82). Dallas Clark tallied 77 receptions and continues to be Manning's top target in the red zone. Marvin Harrison (60) and Anthony Gonzalez (57) are steady possession receivers in the Colts' ball control offense. Vincent Jackson quietly enjoyed an All Pro-like season as he led the team with 1,098 receiving yards. Pro Bowler Antonio Gates led the team in receptions with 60 and finished the year with eight touchdowns.

Offensive Line: Colts

The Colts' offensive line has regained its top form after the return of starters Jeff Saturday, Tony Ugoh and Mike Pollak. The trio missed three games apiece during the first half of the season, and the offense's improved performance can be directly tied to their re-insertion into the lineup. In spite of the presence of Pro Bowler Kris Dielman, the Chargers' offensive line struggled to find consistency in the running game for most of the season.

Defensive Line: Colts

The tandem of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney allows the Colts to get consistent pressure on the passer without having to rely on the blitz. The tandem has combined for 22 sacks, as they each earned Pro Bowl berths. The Chargers' 3-4 is led by the immovable Jamal Williams. His ability to hold point has enabled the team to hold opponents to only four yards per carry on the ground.

Linebackers: Chargers

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney recorded 10.5 sacks this season. Damian Strohmeyer/SI

The Chargers' talented quartet of linebackers is starting to come on under the direction of new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. Shaun Phillips is the team leader in sacks (7.5) and teams with Stephen Cooper to come up with big plays against the run. Although the Colts will miss Gary Brackett in the lineup, Freddy Keiaho and Clint Session have shown outstanding potential flying to the ball in Ron Meeks' cover-two scheme. The Colts rank 11th in the league in total defense, and the play of their young studs has been pivotal to their success.

Defensive Backs: Colts

Although the Chargers rank 31st against the pass, corners Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer are a pair of outstanding cover guys. Eric Weddle leads the team in tackles and has a knack for coming up with key turnovers. The Colts' Bob Sanders is the key to their defense, as he fills the role of an eighth defender against the run. Kelvin Hayden and Tim Jennings aren't household names, but they are helping the Colts hold opponents to only 188.1 passing yards a game, which ranked fifth in the league this season.

Special Teams: Chargers

Return specialist Darren Sproles' outstanding skills gives the Chargers a tremendous advantage in the kicking game. The diminutive playmaker averages 11.3 yards on punt returns and 26.0 on kick returns. He torched the Colts for two return scores in a matchup a season ago and faces a coverage team that has been spotty all season. The Chargers' Mike Scifres is averaging a whopping 40.9 yard net average on punts. Adam Vinatieri hasn't displayed his typical automatic form in connecting on only 20-of-25 field goal attempts, including a disappointing 57.1 percent from 40-49 yards.

Coaching: Colts

Tony Dungy has guided his team to 12 wins after getting off to a disappointing 3-4 start. Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore has worked with Peyton Manning to create a more ball control oriented offense this season. Norv Turner has the Chargers' offense rolling heading into the playoffs. Though he has been criticized for his head coaching ability, he has captured back-to-back AFC West titles and directed an offense that scored the second-most points in the league this season.

Why San Diego Will Win

The Chargers are rolling into the playoffs on the strength of their explosive offense. Rivers has been outstanding down the stretch, and the offense is started to resemble the balanced attack that winded up in the AFC Championship Game. If Tomlinson and Sproles find running room early in the game, the Chargers are capable of putting up big numbers on the Colts defense.

Why Indianapolis Will Win

While Manning and the Colts offense have been credited for the team's strong finish, it has been the emergence of the team's defense that has sparked the run. The Colts' defense has only allowed six passing touchdowns and ranks third in the league in touchdown percentage inside the red zone defense (only allowed 19 touchdowns in 47 trips). In addition, the much-maligned run defense has only allowed 101.5 on the ground during the past 12 weeks after surrendering an average of 188.5 rushing yards the first four weeks of the season.

Final Prediction

While this matchup has the potential to turn into a high scoring offensive affair, the defenses will ultimately decide the contest. The Colts defense has been more consistent down the stretch, and they will come up with enough plays to slow the explosive Chargers offense down in the red zone. Look for the Colts to win another tight one, 27-24.

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