Breaking down this weekend's World Baseball Classic semifinals

Saturday: Venezuela (6-1) vs. Korea (5-2)

Venezuela must decide whether to use Mariners ace Felix Hernandez in the semifinals or save him for a potential final game. AP

Of the four semifinalists, Venezuela is both the least expected and the team that finished pool play with the best record. For that it owes some debt of thanks to the Dominican Republic's surprising first-round exit. Three of Venezuela's six wins came against Italy (twice) and the Netherlands, the latter of whom reached Round 2 in place of the D.R. Of the remaining three wins, two came against the USA in seeding games which U.S. manager Davey Johnson practically threw away by leaving struggling pitchers on the mound to get work.

Venezuela's two remaining games were a 15-6 loss to the U.S. in Round 1 and a stunning 2-0 victory over Puerto Rico in Round 2. The latter owed a great deal to the performances of Mariners' ace Felix Hernandez (who pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out seven), Red Sox non-roster invitee Enrique Gonzalez (who pitched two scoreless frames of his own) and single-season saves leader Francisco Rodriguez (who retired the last four men in order).

Hernandez would be on regular rest for Saturday night's semi (9:00 ET, ESPN), but manager Luis Sojo may prefer to go with Carlos Silva and save Hernandez for the final. If Sojo goes that route, he'll put his chances of getting there at significant risk. Venezuela has a potent offense, but it's a bit banged up, with third baseman Melvin Mora nursing a sore hamstring and catcher Ramon Hernandez, whose home run provided one of the two runs in that win over Puerto Rico, a sore knee. That offense also managed just nine runs in 23 1/3 innings (or 3.47 runs per nine) in Round 2 against pitchers not named Jeremy Guthrie.

That spells trouble for Venezuela, because Korea can pitch. In its two wins over Japan, Korea held its rivals to just one run total. Against lesser opponents in Round 1,the Koreans didn't allow a single run. In Round 2 they allowed only two runs to hot-hitting Mexico, the only non-Asian team that they've played thus far. Korea will hold back emergent ace Jung Keun Bong, who was largely responsible for the two wins over Japan, for the final, but the dropoff from Bong to the rest of the Korean staff isn't nearly as sharp as the dropoff from Hernandez to the second-best Venezuelan starter, particularly given the fact that Armando Galarraga won't be available on Saturday after pitching in the Round 2 seeding game against the U.S. Suk-Min Yoon, who pitched six shutout innings in a Round 1 start over Chinese Taipei and tossed 3 2/3 more scoreless innings of relief in Round 2, is the likely semifinal starter for Korea.

Korea's offense profiles similarly to Venezuela's. The heart of Korea's batting order is populated by monstrous mashers such as first-baseman Tae Kyun Kim and third-sacker Bum Ho Lee, but while Korea stomped on its lesser opponents, averaging 10 1/3 runs against China, Chinese Taipei and Mexico, it has scored just nine runs in four games against Japan's stellar pitching.

The real X-factor here is Hernandez. If Sojo starts him on Saturday, Venezuela has a good shot to make the final. If not, Korea has to be considered the favorite on Saturday night.

Sunday: U.S. (4-3) vs. Japan (5-2)

Nippon Professional Baseball is widely recognized as offering the highest level of play outside of the American major leagues. The U.S. beat Japan 4-3 in the second round of the 2006 WBC, but an anticipated rematch in the semifinals or finals didn't happen because the U.S. was eliminated. This year, baseball gets its wish, though perhaps a game earlier than it would have liked.

Japan's presence in Sunday night's semifinal (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) is well-earned, as it has played fellow semifinalist Korea four times and had to beat top contender Cuba twice in order to survive Round 2. The only "second division" opponent that the Japanese have faced is China, which they beat 5-0 in the first game of the tournament.

Throughout the event, it has been Japan's pitching leading the way. China and Cuba failed to score a run in three games against Japan, while Korea has managed just nine runs in four games against Japanese pitching, and one of those runs was unearned. As a team, Japan has posted a 1.20 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP. Throw out the game against China, and Japan has still allowed an average of just 1.5 runs in six games against Korea and Cuba.

The catch is that, save for a 14-run outburst in its first game against Korea in Round 1, the Japanese haven't been scoring all that much themselves, which is how Korea was able to beat them twice. Setting aside that first game against Korea, Japan has scored just 3.7 runs per game, which includes its somewhat disappointing showing against China, a team that many thought they should have beaten more severely.