Boise, Houston and TCU seek to bust BCS, but who is best suited?

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Last week, the clock struck midnight for a number of would-be contenders. First Ole Miss fell with a resounding thud on Thursday night, then Cal, Miami and Penn State followed suit on Saturday. But something else happened, too. While these overhyped teams were being exposed, a handful of non-BCS teams were proving how that dreaded P-word has altered the game.

We're talking about parity, people.

In the latest AP poll, Boise State ranks fifth, TCU 11th and Houston 12th. In the BCS' 12-year history, three teams from outside the BCS conferences have never been ranked so high so early. Per BCS rules, only one can earn an at-large invitation to the game's biggest party. But with all three in or sniffing the top 10, it begs the question: Are any of the three truly national title threats?

"This type of performance by Boise State and the others continue to show that teams from outside the [automatic qualifier] conferences can indeed compete on the national stage," WAC commissioner Karl Benson, whose membership includes the Broncos, said via e-mail. "Can Boise State make it to the No. 1 or 2 spot and play for [the national championship]? Why not?"

As colleague Stewart Mandel points out, by ranking Boise so high, the voters have set a precedent that could test the credibility of the pollsters and the BCS. But before we get ahead of ourselves and start debating whether these teams could compete with Florida, Alabama or Texas, let's simply decide which of these non-BCS schools (for the record, they hate being called "mid-majors") is the best of the bunch. Sure, three-fourths of the season remain, but it's never too early to examine what we've seen and consider what lies ahead.

The case for Boise State

• The Broncos' No. 5 ranking in the AP and coaches polls is the highest for a team outside the big six conferences in the history of the BCS. Considering three of the four teams in front of Boise (Florida, Alabama and LSU) are from the SEC and play each other, that ranking will likely rise.

• The signature win over Oregon keeps looking better and better, as the Ducks ended Utah's national-best winning streak two weeks ago, then steamrolled Jahvid Best and last week No. 6 Cal.

• Boise also beat by 17 points a Fresno State team that put a major scare into No. 10 Cincinnati.

• The Broncos have solidified themselves as a household-name program. They're no longer just a plucky team that plays on blue turf, and that history has helped them earn the voters' respect. That's not an easy feat for a program that's only been I-A for 13 years.

The case against Boise State

• The schedule. It may be the only slight, but it's a big one. Boise State faced the one BCS school on its schedule in Week 1, and now there isn't another marquee game on the horizon. Tulsa will be a test, but there will be little help on the WAC docket, with 3-1 Idaho and 2-1 Hawaii standing as the only teams with winning records. The Broncos could easily go undefeated the rest of the way, but they're going to have to hope voters don't forget about them while they're playing winless Nevada or 1-3 San Jose State.

• Save the loss of Ian Johnson, this is largely the same Boise State team that went 12-0 last season but was outgained 472 yards to 250 in a Poinsettia Bowl loss to TCU.

The case for TCU

• Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs have notched two road wins over ACC teams, beating Virginia 30-14 and Clemson 14-10.

• If there's a major reason why TCU could easily pass Boise State, it's the strength of schedule. The Horned Frogs play in the Mountain West, which has established itself as the best non-BCS conference the past two years, and still have two of their toughest games ahead as they play at No. 20 BYU on Oct. 24 and host Utah on Nov. 14.

• Few teams play better defense than a Patterson-coached team. TCU ranks seventh nationally in rush defense (68 yards per game) and eighth in sacks (61).

• The '08 Poinsettia Bowl.

The case against TCU

• While the Horned Frogs are 2-0 against ACC teams, they didn't exactly beat the cream of the crop. The Cavaliers may be the worst BCS conference team (they rank 73rd or lower in 13 different national categories, including 111th in total offense), while Clemson, which TCU beat by just four points, ranks 94th in total offense.

• TCU hasn't handled the pressure in the past. In 2003, the Horned Frogs went 10-1 before losing to underdog Southern Miss. In 2005, when they went 11-1, they beat Oklahoma only to suffer a letdown the next week against SMU (coincidentally this week's opponent).

The case for Houston

• If we're talking about quality wins against quality opponents, the Cougars are tough to match. They beat then fifth-ranked Oklahoma State by 10 in Week 2 and another Big 12 South team, Texas Tech, in Week 4. They can make it three wins over BCS teams by winning at Mississippi State on Oct. 10.

• Prolific passer Case Keenum ranks among the nation's best in throwing for 1,160 yards and eight touchdowns. Seeing the big-armed Texan at the helm of the nation's second-ranked offense should put fear into anyone on the schedule.

• While Conference USA doesn't receive the same publicity as the Mountain West, it boasts plenty of dangerous teams like Southern Miss (just ask Kansas), East Carolina and high-scoring Tulsa.

The case against Houston

• Kevin Sumlin and Co. rank 15th in the coaches poll, three spots behind an Oklahoma State team they beat. If wins over the Cowboys and Red Raiders haven't earned Houston respect, little will.

• The Cougars face more hurdles than Boise State and TCU. Dan Mullen's Mississippi State team showed LSU and everyone else it's a team on the rise, and Southern Miss and Tulsa boast offenses capable of hanging with Houston in a shootout.

• Just like Boise State, the Cougars won't face a ranked team the rest of the way. With two marquee games remaining for TCU, and a head start in the polls for Boise, Houston might have reached its poll peak.

Boise State has the name. TCU has the schedule. Houston has the most impressive wins. So who wins out? If the unthinkable happens and all three go undefeated, this would come down to a strength-of-schedule debate that would force the Broncos out, leaving it between the Horned Frogs and Cougars. In that argument, Houston would have won more games over BCS teams, but TCU would have beaten a BYU team that beat Oklahoma and a Utah team whose domination of Alabama in last January's Sugar Bowl remains fresh in voters' minds.

So TCU wins. Maybe the real question is: If this group produces the only undefeated teams, would there be a scenario in which we could have a completely BCS-conference-free title game. Now there's a debate.