Snap Judgments: Divisional round

Donovan McNabb and the Eagles left the top-seeded Giants behind on Sunday. Al Tielemans/SI

PITTSBURGH -- Musings, observations and the occasional insight as we wrap up the mind-boggling games of the NFL's divisional round playoffs, from a frosty Heinz Field, aka The Big Ketchup Bottle ...

• And so the curse of the No. 1 seed strikes again. In historic fashion this time. At this point, should anyone be surprised? Last month I detailed how the coveted homefield advantage in either conference's playoff field has become considerably less than a prize, and sure enough, No. 1 Tennessee and No. 1 New York became the latest victims this weekend.

Actually, being a No. 1 has never meant less. This season marks the first time since the NFL began seeding its playoff field in 1990 that both No. 1 teams lost in their divisional-round opener at home. And it's the fourth straight year that a No. 1 has lost its divisional round game, with the 2008 Titans and Giants taking their place alongside the 2007 Cowboys, the 2006 Chargers and the 2005 Colts. And for the 15th consecutive postseason, the two top-seeded teams will not survive to face one another in the Super Bowl, with the last time that quinella happened being when the 1993 Cowboys and Bills both advanced.

As the Ravens, Chargers, Eagles and Cardinals have once again shown this year, the playoffs have really become anyone's game, with no discernible advantage belonging to the seeds near the top of the bracket. The only No. 1 seed to win the Super Bowl this decade were the 2003 Patriots, and the past three seasons have seen the No. 5 Giants, No. 3 Colts and No. 6 Steelers getting hot and rolling all the way to the big ring ceremony.

And get this: teams that won at least 10 games this season are now 1-5 at home in these playoffs, with the Dolphins, Vikings, Titans, Panthers and Giants all losing their postseason opener, and only the Steelers holding serve. All told, teams that won in double digits this regular season are just 3-6 in the playoffs, with Baltimore responsible for two of those victories and Pittsburgh the other. Oh, and did we mention that road teams are 5-3 so far in the playoffs, with the Chargers' loss snapping a five-game winning streak for the visitors?

This year, in an eerily similar scenario to 2000, when they won the Super Bowl as a No. 4 seed, the Ravens are again proving how meaningless playoff seeds can be. Having already beaten the No. 3 Dolphins and No. 1 Titans on the road, the No. 6 Ravens fear no one. And don't forget the No. 6-seeded Eagles, who are headed for the most unlikely NFC Championship Game ever: Philadelphia at Arizona, with neither team topping the nine-win mark in the regular season.

It's makes it almost ridiculously hard to predict the outcome of the NFL playoffs these days, but it's more intriguing than ever to watch the postseason unfold now that it's an underdog's world.

• In seven of the first eight years of this decade, a No. 1 seed has gone on to lose the Super Bowl, with 2003 being the lone aberration. But now 2008 will break the pattern as well, with neither No. 1 surviving even to the conference title game.

• Looking on the bright side of Sunday's upset of the Giants, we're now all spared from a third consecutive Super Bowl with a Manning playing quarterback. So there's that.

• If I'm a Steelers fan, I'm nervous about the AFC title game, and not just because the always-tough Ravens are the opponent. Pittsburgh and hosting the AFC Championship Game just doesn't seem to mix. The Steelers have lost the past three times they've hosted the game: in 1997 to Denver, and in 2001 and 2004 to the Patriots. Those three opponents went on to win the Super Bowl.

• In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger's rookie year, the Steelers went 16-1 but then lost the AFC title game to the visiting Patriots. Big Ben hasn't forgotten.

"The last time it was here, it was my rookie year and I didn't play well," he said. "I'm looking for a little redemption."

• I asked Steelers coach Mike Tomlin if beating a division opponent three times in the same year is among the hardest feats in the NFL, and he didn't play along whatsoever.

"I personally don't subscribe to that hocus-pocus to be honest with you," Tomlin said. "It's going to be a knock-down drag out. What happened in the other two games will have no bearing on the outcome of this game. We aren't buying into that."

Me thinks he doth protest too much.

Especially since Roethlisberger basically echoed the thrust of my question in his comments, unbidded.

"It's going to be a battle to play a team three times in one year, especially a divisional opponent, with the rivalry we have," Roethlisberger said.

• So much for my prediction -- and the league's unstated hopes -- for a Baltimore-New York 50th anniversary rematch of "The Greatest Game Ever Played.'' No Colts-Giants. No Baltimore-New York.

Cardinals-Ravens anyone? Eagles-Steelers?

• I'll say this about the miracle-in-process that the Arizona Cardinals' playoff run is: Every team at one time or another plays the "We've been disrespected'' card. It's the most clichéd mantra in professional sports. But these Cardinals -- for once -- have the right to go that route, because they really were disrespected. By almost everyone. League-wide.

I know I heaped more than my share of abuse on them late in the regular season, when they lost four of their last six games and failed to even show up in that Week 16 debacle at New England. But what can we all say now, other than that Arizona has obviously used the scorn to its advantage? Beating one NFC South playoff team at home in the first round was impressive. Embarrassing that division's champion, Carolina, on the road was a feat I did not remotely imagine could happen.

• That settles it for me: Carolina simply can't be trusted. The Panthers seem to excel and surprise us when expectations surrounding them are low (see 2003 and 2005 playoff runs) and they underwhelm us when they have our full attention (see the so-so seasons of 2004, 2006, and Saturday night's flameout).

The Panthers came out Saturday night either flat or unwisely overconfident against Arizona, and either way, that's inexcusable for a team that had what seemed to be the best possible path to the NFC Championship Game.

• For the Titans and their fans, Saturday's meltdown against Baltimore had to be like watching an eight-year-old nightmare re-enacted before their eyes. In vivid HD detail.

In 2000, Tennessee was 13-3, seeded first in the AFC, and at home against the Ravens in its divisional-round playoff opener. Oh, and the Super Bowl was in Tampa that year.

This year, Tennessee was 13-3, seeded first in the AFC, and at home against the Ravens in its divisional-round playoff opener. And the Super Bowl is in Tampa again.

Same result, both times.

"Same teams, same situation, but different players,'' a disconsolate Jeff Fisher said in the postgame. Yeah, and same bitter, bitter pill for Tennessee to swallow.