By the numbers: Five statistical nuggets about the NFL's final four |
Story Highlights
No. 6 seeds Baltimore and Philly try to follow Pittsburgh in 2005The NFC title game isn't the bastion of conformity it once wasThe Eagles can be the first Super Bowl team with a tie in 21 years |
In case you were wondering, here are five statistical nuggets that speak to just how rare this year's NFL final four really is: It's no picnic being a No. 6 seed and being forced to play every game on the road. But as the Ravens and Eagles have shown us this year, it's certainly not the death sentence it once was. Consider this: In the previous history of the No. 6 seed, from 1990 to 2007, only one team won more than one game in any particular playoff run, that being the 2005 Steelers, who went 4-0 on their way to winning Super Bowl XL. Before this year, they were the first and only No. 6 seed to make it out of the divisional round. There wasn't even another instance where both No. 6 seeds won their first-round game, let alone both winning their divisional-round contests. Entering this postseason, No. 6 seeds were a combined 14-35 (.286), with both bottom seeds losing their playoff openers eight times in 18 years, including three of the past four. Take away the 2005 Steelers, and that combined won-loss record drops to a dismal 10-35 (.222). But this year, the Ravens and Eagles are a combined 4-0, and their four road wins have come with a whopping 11.3-point average margin of victory. Arizona is the first No. 4 seed to host an NFC Championship game, and that means the NFC title game just isn't the bastion of conformity it once was. Since the NFL went to the 12-team playoff format in 1990, the top two seeds in the NFC met in 10 of the first 11 postseasons, and 12 of 15 overall through 2004. Three other times in that same span it was a No. 1 vs. No. 3 NFC title-game matchup, meaning 15 consecutive years of having two of the conference's top three seeds make the championship game. But in 2005, the fifth-seeded Panthers broke the pattern, losing to the No. 1 seeded Seahawks in the NFC title game, and in 2007, the No. 5 Giants upset the No. 2 Packers, with the top-seeded Cowboys becoming the first NFC No. 1 to not even make the title game since the new format was born in 1990. And this year the trend continued, with the Eagles being the first NFC sixth seed to reach the championship game. Their matchup with the No. 4 Cardinals makes this the most unlikely -- and lowly regarded -- NFC title game in history. By comparison, the AFC title game has always given us a much more unpredictable pairing. Just seven of the 19 AFC Championship pairings since the playoffs expanded have pitted No. 1 vs. No. 2, with a top seed against a third seed three more times, for a 10 of 19 outcome overall (or slightly more than half). While the Ravens this year are just the second No. 6 seed to make it this far in the AFC (matching the 2005 Steelers), we've had quite a few playoff upstarts in the AFC over the years. A No. 4 seed has played for the conference title five times (the 1992 Bills, 1997 Broncos, 1999 Titans, 2000 Ravens, and 2006 Patriots). All but the last one of those, New England in '06, went to the Super Bowl. A No. 5 seed has made it to the AFC conference title game twice: 1995 Colts and 1996 Jaguars were both huge playoff Cinderellas who lost one game shy of the Super Bowl. The only other time we've had a No. 6 at No. 2 seed matchup in the AFC title game, the Steelers were on the other side of the equation. In 2005, Pittsburgh played and won the AFC title game at No. 2 Denver. This time, the Steelers are the No. 2, trying to fend off the No. 6 Ravens. With the Titans and Giants becoming the first top-seeded duo to both lose in the divisional round, this season marks the first time since 1997 that at least one of the No. 1 seeds won't make it to the Super Bowl. That year, the top-seeded Chiefs and 49ers both lost shy of the Super Bowl, with Kansas City dropping its divisional round game to the visiting Broncos and the 49ers falling to visiting Green Bay in the NFC title game. In the 19 seasons (1990-2008) since the NFL expanded its playoff format to 12 teams and began seeding each conference's postseason field, this is just the third time that at least one No. 1 didn't qualify for the Super Bowl. Besides this year and 1997, it happened in 1992, when the top-seeded Steelers lost to the Bills in the divisional round, and the No. 1 49ers were beaten by the Cowboys in the NFC title game. With a win Sunday in Arizona, the Eagles would be the first Super Bowl team with a tie on its regular-season record in 21 years. The 1987 AFC champion Broncos were the most recent, going 10-4-1 in a strike-shortened season that was forever blemished by the use of replacement players in Weeks 4-6 of the schedule. The Broncos lost the Super Bowl that year to Washington. The last Super Bowl winner to feature a tie were the 1974 Steelers, who went 10-3-1 in the regular season en route to their first Vince Lombardi trophy. All told, seven teams have made the Super Bowl with a tie on its record, the final three coming after the NFL went to a sudden-death overtime period in 1974, which greatly reduced the frequency of ties: -- 1966 Chiefs went 11-2-1 and lost the Super Bowl to the Packers. -- 1967 Packers went 9-4-1 and beat the Raiders in the Super Bowl. -- 1970 Colts went 11-2-1 and beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl. -- 1971 Dolphins went 10-3-1 and lost the Super Bowl to the Cowboys. -- 1974 Steelers went 10-3-1 and beat the Vikings in the Super Bowl. -- 1976 Vikings went 11-2-1 and lost the Super Bowl to the Raiders. -- 1987 Broncos went 10-4-1 and lost the Super Bowl to the Redskins.
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