Playoff turnover (cont.)

Six 2008 playoff teams who won't repeat

Recent history is stacked against Kurt Warner and the Super Bowl-losing Cardinals making a return to the postseason. John Biever/SI Don Banks's Mailbag Submit a comment or question to Don Banks. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Don Banks on Twitter

AFC

• Miami -- The Dolphins' 10-win improvement last season was a turnaround for the ages, but Miami might wind up wishing it hadn't set the bar quite so high in the first year of the Tony Sparano era. I like what the Dolphins are building, but I can't see them duplicating their 2008 success, when they won eight of their 11 games by margins of nine points or less. Last year, Miami had the NFC West and AFC West on its schedule. The party's over, because this season it's the considerably tougher NFC South and AFC South that the Dolphins draw.

Miami helped itself in the secondary in the draft and free agency, but that's not going to be enough to separate the Dolphins in the AFC East because I think the Patriots, Jets and Bills all got better on defense. And if I were a Fish fan, it would make me nervous that Chad Pennington has rarely put together two big seasons in a row without an injury or a benching.

• Baltimore -- The Ravens were the AFC's other big turnaround story last season -- going from 5-11 to 11-5 and a pair of playoff wins -- but there was nothing fluky about them. They smacked you in the mouth on defense, took care of the football on offense, and got better the longer they played, both in specific games and in the season. Rookie head coach John Harbaugh had Baltimore playing smart, disciplined football, and that had not been the case for the Ravens in 2007.

I have no great reasoning for listing Baltimore as a non-playoff qualifier in 2009, because I like almost every move the Ravens made this offseason. Getting cornerback Domonique Foxworth in free agency was an upgrade over Chris McAlister, and offensive linemen Matt Birk and Michael Oher were nice pickups as well. Baltimore will be in the playoff hunt, but my hunch is some of the breaks won't go its way this year, and returning to the ranks of the AFC elite will be just beyond its reach.

• Indianapolis -- Predicting the demise of the Colts would appear a fool's game, given their seven-year streak of making the playoffs and a six-year run of winning at least 12 games every regular season. But the law of averages say it has to end at some point for Indy (doesn't it?), and with new head coach Jim Caldwell elevated to replace the departed Tony Dungy, maybe some key component of the team's success will go missing this season for the first time since 2001.

When they were sitting 3-4 entering November last season, the Colts looked like an aging team that finally had too many vulnerabilities for their all-world offense to overcome. Then Peyton Manning got healthy, and it all came together in the form of a nine-game winning streak entering the playoffs. This is a team that hasn't lost anyone it can't live without this offseason -- Marvin Harrison included -- but that might not be enough in a division where the Colts could find themselves looking up at both Tennessee and Houston.

NFC

• Atlanta -- Sensing a trend in my logic? Like the Dolphins and Ravens, I foresee the Falcons slipping back to non-playoff-team standing after all three clubs enjoyed magical 2008 seasons under rookie head coaches. Atlanta's success last season came faster than anyone within the organization expected, and as everyone knows, staying on top in the NFL is tougher than making the climb the first time.

Again, I like the program that head coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff are putting in place in Atlanta, and I'm not predicting a plunge back to the ranks of the double-digit losers. But the Falcons must contend with the AFC East and NFC East on their schedule this season, and that could result in them having a better team than 2008, but not necessarily a better record.

• Arizona -- The Cardinals lost the Super Bowl in February, and you know what that means: They're long shots, at best, to return to the playoffs this season. Seven of this decade's first eight Super Bowl losers failed to qualify for the post-season the following year, the dreaded hangover effect that was overcome only by the 2006 Seahawks, who squeaked in atop a weak NFC West at 9-7. Sure, the Cardinals could become the next aberration to that trend, given they play in that same lowly division, but recent history says it's not likely.

Arizona won on the strength of its 6-0 record in the NFC West last year, and that better not slip by more than a game or two in 2009, because I think the 7-9 49ers, 4-12 Seahawks and 2-14 Rams all are great bets to better last year's win totals. For the most part, the Cardinals had a status quo offseason, and that usually translates to a lack of improvement in the NFL. Suffice to say Arizona isn't likely to repeat its feat of giving up 426 points -- just one fewer than the 427 it scored -- and still making the playoffs.

• Carolina -- How tightly bunched is the NFC South? Remember that Monday night Bucs at Panthers game in early December last season? Tampa Bay entered that game looking like it was in control of the division at 9-3 and having already beaten Carolina handily once. But the Panthers won big that night, Atlanta finished strong, and three weeks later the Bucs missed the playoffs, winding up a scant game ahead of the last-place 8-8 Saints. That's why the well-balanced NFC South hasn't had a repeat champion in the division's first seven seasons of existence, and why I don't see the Panthers ending that streak.

Carolina didn't over-react to its shocking playoff loss at home to Arizona, and that's to be admired. The Panthers will return with almost the same lineup in 2009 that worked so well last year in the regular season. On the other hand, consistency has not been a Carolina hallmark. The Panthers have never had consecutive winning seasons or playoff berths in their 14-year franchise history. Alas, the beat goes on.

Agree or disagree with these 12 teams? Weigh in here.