Talkin' about the age-33 falloff phenomenon (cont.)

Dodgers legend Duke Snider suffered a big dropoff at the age of 33. AP

Joe: This is off-topic -- and I know about 10 million books have been written on the subject -- but it's still astounds me that from 1951 through 1957, you had Duke Snider, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays all playing center field in New York City. And in those seven years:

• Mantle twice led the league in homers, won the Triple Crown, won two MVP awards, posted a 174 OPS+.

• Mays led the league in triples three times, homers once, stolen bases twice, batting average once, won an MVP award and played center field defense as well or better than it had ever been played before.

• Snider led the league in homers once, RBIs once and runs three times; should have won the MVP in 1955*; hit 257 homers in those seven years; and inspired a generation of fans in Brooklyn.

*Snider lost the MVP award to teammate Roy Campanella in 1955 by five points, but a writer had put Campanella in both the first slot and in the sixth slot on his ballot. (Some accounts have the writer putting Campy in the first and FIFTH spots, but it appears to be the sixth spot.) The writer was ill and could not clarify; had his ballot been thrown out, Snider would have won the award. Had Snider been given the sixth spot on that ballot, he would have shared the award with Campy.

Snider never hit with the same power after he moved out of the comfort of Brooklyn's Ebbett's Field, and he also faded quickly at age 33. And even though he put up comparable numbers to Mantle and Mays during those New York years, his late-career fade probably changed the perception about him. It took Snider 11 tries to get inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Bill: Continuing with Mickey Mantle ...

11) Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle
1964, age 32: .303, 35 homers, 111 RBIs
1965, age 33: .255, 19 homers, 46 RBIs

12) Bill White, slugging first baseman, later National League president
1966, age 32: .276, 22 homers, 103 RBIs
1967, age 33: .250, 8 homers, 33 RBIs

13) Rocky Colavito
1966, age 32: .238, 30 homers, 72 RBIs
1967, age 33: .231, 8 homers, 50 RBIs

14) Hall of Famer Al Kaline
1967, age 32: .308, 25 homers, 78 RBIs
1968, age 33: .287, 10 homers, 53 RBIs

15) Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda
1970, age 32: .305, 34 homers, 111 RBIs
1971, age 33: .276, 14 homers, 44 RBIs

16) Hall of Famer Willie McCovey
1970, age 32: .289, 39 homers, 126 RBIs
1971, age 33: .277, 18 homers, 70 RBIs

17) Dick Allen
1974, age 32: .301, 32 homers, 88 RBIs
1975, age 33: .233, 12 homers, 62 RBIs

18) Hall of Famer George Brett
1985, age 32: .335, 30 homers, 112 RBIs
1986, age 33: .290, 16 homers, 73 RBIs

19) Hall of Famer Eddie Murray
1988, age 32: .284, 28 homers, 84 RBIs
1989, age 33: .247, 20 homers, 88 RBIs

20) Amos Otis
1979, age 32: .295, 18 homers, 90 RBIs
1980, age 33: .251, 10 homers, 53 RBIs

Joe: Well, I knew Amos Otis had to be coming -- seeing as he's your favorite player and all. He's a good example, too. Right up until he turned 33, Otis was an outstanding player, a rare TRUE five-tool guy. Ten years, 1970-79 (and remember, this was a decade dominated by pitching), he hit .300 twice and 18-plus homers four times, stole 30 or more bases four times, drove in 90 runs three times, scored 90 runs three times, played Gold Glove center field and (people forget this) made the throw that led to Pete Rose's famous collision with Ray Fosse in the All-Star Game. At 33, after his superhuman reflexes became merely great, he never could quite adjust -- and he never got 500 at-bats in a season after 32.

Bill: A few of these players did come back and have very good seasons after age 33. I don't think anyone I've listed here got all the way back to where he had once been (after age 33), but some players (such as George Brett and Eddie Murray) did snap back and have some good years after age 33 -- as A-Rod may, or Ortiz, or Lance Berkman.

Continuing on with my list:

21) George Foster
1981, age 32: .295, 22 homers, 90 RBIs in a strike-shortened season of 108 games
1982, age 33: .247, 13 homers, 70 RBIs in a full season of 151 games

22) Andre Thornton
1982, age 32: .273, 32 homers, 116 RBIs
1983, age 33: .281, 17 homers, 77 RBIs

23) Greg Luzinski
1983, age 32: .255, 32 homers, 95 RBIs
1984, age 33: .238, 13 homers, 58 RBIs

24) Buddy Bell
1984, age 32: .315, 11 homers, 83 RBIs
1985, age 33: .229, 10 homers, 68 RBIs

25) Alan Trammell
1990, age 32: .308, 14 homers, 89 RBIs
1991, age 33: .248, 9 homers, 55 RBIs