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Posted: Wednesday August 26, 2009 4:03PM; Updated: Wednesday August 26, 2009 4:03PM
Joe Posnanski Joe Posnanski >
INSIDE BASEBALL

Believe it: The Royals' Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball

Story Highlights

Greinke turned in an 8-inning, 5-hit, 15-K game against the Indians on Tuesday

His overall numbers stack up favorably across the board against Tim Lincecum's

Greinke deserves extra credit for pitching for a terrible team in the tougher league

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Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke broke the Royals team record by striking out 15 Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night.
AP

Zack Greinke turned in a spectacular eight-inning, five-hit, 15-strikeout game against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night. Those 15 strikeouts were a team record and tied Tim Lincecum for the most in a game this season. Nobody had 15 strikeouts in a game last year.

I've been banging the drum for Greinke for a long time. I've taken plenty of hits over it -- like the time I put Greinke at No. 4 on my Top 100 list. Fair enough -- in fact that's part of the fun. I'll just keep saying it until more people believe me: Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in the game. I have five reasons for this.

1. Greinke pitches in the American League.

I know there is a lot of knee-jerk stuff out there now about the NL being the inferior hitters league -- what with Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.68 ERA in NL) suddenly pitching like he's Lefty Grove. And, of course, CC Sabathia, with his career 3.80 ERA in the AL, was a full two runs better -- 11-2, 1.65 ERA -- when pitching for the Brewers last year. Matt Holliday is killing the ball again now that he's back in the NL. And so on. These seem to me like random examples that don't prove much.

BUT ... it's obvious that, just because of the DH, the American League will naturally be the tougher league to pitch in. The American League ERA is almost always higher, and often a half-run higher. It's just obvious: DHs are hitting .256/.340/.754. National League pitchers are hitting .144/.186/.186 and NL pinch-hitters are hitting .228/.315/.358. That's just a huge difference. There are undoubtedly other differences ... but I think it's clear that the American League is the tougher league for pitchers.

And so ... Greinke has to get some credit for that. I saw a couple of weeks ago there was a smattering of talk about maybe giving Tim Lincecum the MVP award in addition to the Cy Young. The talk -- our emigo Jonah Keri seemed to start it -- was built around the idea that Lincecum isn't just having a great season, he's having an historic one, a season a lot like Pedro's great year or Clemens' or Gooden's. Now, I think Lincecum has not pitched quite as well since then, but still I look at his season compared to Greinke's ...

Win-Loss
Greinke: 12-8
Lincecum: 12-4

ERA
Greinke: 2.43 -- leads league
Lincecum: 2.43

Innings
Greinke: 181.3
Lincecum: 185.3

Strikeouts
Greinke: 197
Lincecum: 214 -- leads league

Walks
Greinke: 39
Lincecum: 51

WHIP
Greinke: 1.119
Lincecum: 1.041

Homers per Nine
Greinke: .5 -- leads league
Lincecum: .4

ERA+
Greinke: 181 -- leads league
Lincecum: 178

Complete Games and Shutouts
Greinke: 5 and 2 -- both lead league
Lincecum: 4 and 2 -- both lead league

Wins Above Replacement
Greinke: 7.2
Lincecum: 7.1

OK, you can see what I'm getting at here: There is virtually no difference in their statistics -- except maybe win-loss percentage (which nobody could blame Greinke for) and Lincecum does have an edge in K's and WHIP. If Lincecum is having an historic season, then Greinke is too. But there's this: Greinke is having HIS season in the American League. And that's a huge difference, I think. I think it's fair to say that, considering league, Greinke's having a better year.

You can do the same thing with Chris Carpenter if you want -- there was a bit of a civil war on my Facebook page as Cardinals fans and Royals fans attacked over Greinke vs. Carpenter -- but I don't think it's quite the same comparison since Carpenter (and, believe me, I LOVE this Carpenter story) has been off and on and has pitched almost 40 fewer innings than Greinke. He also pitches in the NL ...

2. Greinke pitches for a terrible team.

You will sometimes hear people say that what Greinke is doing is somehow LESS IMPRESSIVE because he's doing it for the Royals while, say, Josh Beckett or Carpenter or Sabathia or Lincecum are doing it in something resembling a pennant race.

Well, I have the opposite view. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that if the Royals were a good team and in a pennant race, Greinke would be pitching much better. Obviously I can't prove this -- and no one can prove the opposite either -- but I would say that losing wears down someone like Greinke way more than pressure. The guy loves to compete. That's where he gets his kicks. It has always been like that for him. Part of his magical April, I think, was built around the hope that the Royals (this time, finally) were real contenders.

Again, I couldn't prove it: But I'm utterly convinced that pitching for a going-nowhere team has worn Greinke down physically and mentally. He craves big moments. He hungers for pressure situations. This is the stuff that drives him. And this team, this season, has been like Kryptonite.

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