In the tight NL West, a few dollars could make a world of difference

Even though the Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez to a lucrative contract, they still cut over $18 million from their 2008 payroll. AP National League West Payrolls '09 Payroll '08 Payroll $ Change L.A. $100,414,592 $118,588,536 -18,173,944 S.F. $82,616,450 $76,594,500 6,021,950 Colo. $75,201,000 $68,655,500 6,545,500 Ariz. $73,516,666 $66,202,712 7,313,954 S.D. $43,734,200 $73,677,616 -29,943,416 Source: USA Today Jonah Freedman's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Jonah. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Jonah Freedman on Twitter

By now it has been drilled into our heads so many times that baseball is going to feel the brunt of the slow economy that it almost makes you want to shove your Thunderstix and foam tomahawks under your mattress, right next to your beer money.

And the proof is out there, even if it is, for now, scant: Spring training attendance was down by 7.7 percent on a per-game basis. Season-ticket sales figures vary from team to team, but there's no red flag just yet. Major League Baseball is expecting a seven percent decrease in attendance this season and is prepared to take the hit in terms of sponsorship, though we'll have to wait to see how the season plays out before that materializes.

On Monday, though, we got our first piece of real evidence on how the recession may affect baseball -- at least as of the beginning of the season. Fourteen of the 30 major-league teams have lower Opening Day payrolls than last year, according to USA Today's annual survey of baseball salaries. Of those 14 teams, 10 have slashed their payroll by $10 million or more. (The Associated Press' report differed slightly, saying that 16 teams cut payroll.)

That's certainly a statement, though it's no reason for your team to file Chapter 11 just yet. Even the Yankees have shed payroll: Despite committing $423.5 million over the offseason to CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, the Bombers' 25-man payroll is $201.4 million, down around four percent from last season. The perennially big-spending Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels, all of whom have topped $100 million in payroll for the past several season, also have cut salary in attempts to reduce costs.

Before we continue to parse the findings of the survey, it's worth pointing out that USA Today's findings aren't exact. The study factors in deferred payments and averages out signing bonuses over the length of players' contracts. (For instance, it calculates that Manny Ramirez will earn $23.9 million this season; though in reality, the Dodgers will pay him only $10 million of that figure this year, and should he choose not to opt out at season's end, he'll earn the rest in deferred payments until 2012.) That said, these numbers are apples-to-apples across the majors, so they make for a good study of baseball dollars.

And still we're left with a majority 16 teams that actually have upped their payrolls. If we break this study down by division, some interesting trends surface. In divisions where there are clear frontrunners to win, some teams have made definite efforts to catch them by reinforcing their rosters despite the slow economy. For instance, even though the Rays are the defending American League champions, most pundits are picking the Yankees or Red Sox to win back the AL East. As such, Tampa Bay has upped its payroll to an all-time high $63.3 million (a 44 percent increase over last season) to keep up with the big boys. Similarly, Oakland is probably the only team with any shot of dethroning the Angels' stranglehold over the AL West. Accordingly the A's payroll this season is up 30 percent, to $62.3 million.

But it's far more interesting to see what teams are doing in divisions that are up for grabs. Most specifically, the NL West. Last season it took a mere 84 victories to win baseball's weakest division. And even though the Dodgers re-signed Ramirez there's no evidence to suggest that their win total will be drastically higher this year, especially given their suddenly un-Dodgerlike shortcomings in the pitching department.

That means it's probably not going to take a nine-figure payroll to compete in the NL West this season. The numbers seem to indicate that the division's GMs kept this in mind going into this past offseason and, given the economic climate, figured that they might not need to ratchet up their payroll if all it's going to take to stay competitive is 85 wins.

"I think that's accurate," said Dodgers GM Ned Colletti when presented with this theory last month at L.A.'s new spring compound in Arizona. "I don't think anyone builds to win 85, 86 games. But I think there are a lot of clubs who are thinking, You know what, if we can start out and stay in it, we'll see where we're at later in the season."