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Posted: Friday April 17, 2009 10:54AM; Updated: Friday April 17, 2009 2:03PM
Josh Gross Josh Gross >
INSIDE MMA

For better or worse, Leites finds himself on brink of history

Story Highlights

Thales Leites takes on middleweight champ Anderson Silva at UFC 97 in Montreal

Leites will either be remembered as Silva's ninth victim or as a stunning victor

In the co-main event, watch for Chuck Liddell's attacks against Mauricio Rua

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Thales Leites
Thales Leites (white trunks) is riding a five-fight win streak.
Courtesy of Zuffa
Forecasting UFC 97
What to watch for at UFC 97 in Montreal on Saturday.

* Make a note of Leites' jab and basic combinations. If he gets into even a slight rhythm, the challenger can translate that success into takedowns. Otherwise, he will have a rough time putting Silva on his back without taking damage.

* Trying to make a statement could cost Silva. He may get himself in trouble by trying to unload on Leites early to atone for his weird performance against Cote. Silva can win this fight many ways. Losing would probably require him making mistakes out of emotion.

* If Leites can't submit Silva in the first two rounds, don't expect him to pull it off later in the bout. He's done most of his damage early.

* Pay attention to which fighter first concedes the bounce in his step: Chuck Liddell or Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. A deep cardio reserve translates to effectiveness rather than sloppiness in later rounds. And in the case of Shogun, it would allow him to push the pace, which he must to break through against the counter-fighter.

* Concentrate on Liddell's attacks. If he's right-hand heavy and intent on launching bombs from the outside, the former UFC light heavyweight champion will have handed Rua a golden opportunity to win the fight. Mixing it up -- inside and outside low kicks, doubling up on jabs and lead hooks -- will set up Liddell's powerful and accurate right hand. He can get to Shogun's chin and end it that way.

* Who's the best heavyweight striker in the UFC? Cheick Kongo and Antoni Hardonk should determine that answer.

* Don't let the Luis Cane-Steve Cantwell fight fly too far under the radar. Look for this to be fast-paced with mostly striking. Cane is a legit prospect at 205, and a win over Cantwell certainly wouldn't hurt. On the flipside, Cantwell's stock would see a significant rise if he were to upend the undefeated Brazilian.

* Overrated and/or inconsistent? Denis Kang supporters should have a clear idea following his fight against striker Xavier Foupa-Pokam.

Win or lose Saturday in Montreal, Thales Leites finds himself a partner to history.

Prevailing wisdom suggests, post UFC 97, the 27-year-old Brazilian will be a footnote, the answer to trivia regarding Anderson Silva's record-snapping string of overall victories inside the UFC.

Perpetual wisdom, of course, tells us things don't necessarily happen the way they should, which comes as welcome relief to a competitor like Leites when faced with the improbable.

Falling closer to Dan Henderson than Patrick Cote on Silva's scale of serious challengers, Leites (14-1) needs everything to come together if he expects to dethrone a classy champion with nearly three years at the top of the mixed martial arts world. As stages go in pulling off a successful upset, belief in oneself, almost to the point of being delusional, a sense of timing, as if consciously carving out a sliver of history, and doing everything right in the fight, are mandatory.

Leites appears to have at least two of the three covered.

"I think this is my time," he said Wednesday. "I have a good feeling about this fight."

Whether the challenger's skill and experience are enough to match his expectations against Silva, 34, who is ranked No. 1 in the world at 185 pounds and among the top three pound-for-pound fighters, is at the same time debatable and a logical place to explore during an interview. Having received plenty of press leading up to the pay-per-view main event at the Bell Centre (10 p.m. ET), Leites is more than familiar with questions regarding the pressures of fighting for the belt, and what it means to be a sizeable underdog.

"I say in all the interviews, no one is unbeatable," Leites said of "The Spider," whose 23-4 record with eight straight wins tied Royce Gracie and Jon Fitch for consecutive victories in the Octagon. "That's why I put in my mind I can do it. He has two arms and two legs like everyone else."

That they happen to be four of the most dangerous appendages in the sport is notable and, for opponents, rarely avoidable. When it comes down to it, there's nothing easy about fighting Silva, particularly as the champion returns to action for the first time since being criticized over failing to decimate Cote last October.

"Anderson is a very complete fighter," Leites said. "He is a jiu-jitsu black belt. Even if I take him down, I'm going to have a hard time with him on the ground."

Fighting out of Nova Uniao, a top Brazilian gym that develops some of the best jiu-jitsu competitors in the world, Leites is rare in his willingness to share his approach in the cage. This will have to be a battle of strengths. The challenger can't strike with Silva, not for an extended period at least, and he knows this.

"My game plan, no matter who I'm fighting, is to use my jiu-jitsu skills to win the fight," Leites said. "It's no different against Anderson."

Since joining the UFC in 2006, Leites has made good on his strengths, scoring three of five wins by way of submission. Yet, a decision loss to Martin Kampmann and a difficult split-decision win over Nathan Marquardt, which came as a result of two point deductions against the veteran American, prompted some to wonder whether Leites deserved a shot against Silva.

Not surprisingly, there hasn't been any uncertainty coming from the challenger's supporters, a major source of motivation heading into the fight.

"This makes me feel better," he said of the well-intentioned effort offered by his training partners, family and friends. "It makes me hungrier to train.

Will he be victim No. 9 or the perpetrator of a stunning victory against a great champion? Either way, Leites is assured of being remembered after Saturday night. Such grand consequences aren't the sort he cared to envision upon stepping into jiu-jitsu world, nor were they a goal when he first fought professionally in 2003. But here he is, underdog, attempting to seize the kind of moment that would have people remember him for a long time to come.

 
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