Five reasons Evans will stay champ

3. Strategy

Rashad Evans may be the best striker/wrestler Lyoto Machida has faced in his career.

Here's why I'm more excited for this fight than any other so far in 2009. And why I can't imagine a boring outcome. (Oh, there will be lulls. But they'll be strategic lulls.) Just because Evans and Machida aren't the kind of fighters who will try to kill each other for 25 minutes won't mean they aren't deeply locked in a fight.

My expectation is the need for both camps to adapt on the fly, and as much as Machida and his crew are pros, there isn't a better camp at identifying exploitable weaknesses during a fight than Greg Jackson, Mike Winkeljohn and others.

In-fight strategy will be a major factor in determining a winner at UFC 98.

4. Striking to wrestle

Evans is the best striker/wrestler Machida has faced. If the champion decides to press Machida, it won't come in the way of a frontal assault. He'll need to be smart, and that means feinting one thing to find another. Here, Evans is perfectly equipped to put Machida on his back, where the champ's underrated ground-and-pound could provide an avenue to victory.

Simply taking shots at double-legs, however, is a recipe for disaster. Machida uses his hips incredibly well. It would be a mistake for Evans to try to force takedowns. He'll burn energy, which could cost him speed and all that comes with that.

Machida isn't overly aggressive. He doesn't fire combinations. All that makes it more difficult to take him down. To do so, Evans must confuse Machida. strike sometimes to strike, strike sometimes to set up takedowns. The latter become much easier with the help of the former.

This might play out over the opening two or three rounds, but at some point Evans would be smart to get Machida down, which I expect the 29-year-old ex-Michigan State wrestler to accomplish.

5. Power

Evans' speed and footwork lead to one place: explosive power. He has an edge here, perhaps the most significant of any category between the two.

With Machida, 30, providing such a difficult target to sight, Evans must make the strikes he lands worthwhile. And he has the power to do that.

Prediction

There is too much defense and too much skill to expect a finish from either fighter. Neither man is prone to mistakes. Each has skills and attributes that offset the other.

This might be the best "boring" fight ever.

Put me down for Evans three rounds to two, 47-46, in a fight that could easily deliver a split decision.

Also, Matt Hughes will defeat Matt Serra by decision, and Sean Sherk will edge Frankie Edgar by decision.