Watch out for familiar top three to rule post-Daytona season

Rick Hendrick claims Mark Martin is going to have a huge impact on NASCAR this season, despite his age. Getty Images

And now the real season begins in NASCAR.

The Daytona 500 may be the biggest event on the stock car calendar, but performing well in the Great American Race has about as much carry-over to the rest of the NASCAR season as a preseason game does in the NFL. Over the remaining 35 Sprint Cup races of 2009 the circuit will make only three more stops at restrictor-plate tracks -- once more at Daytona in July and twice at Talladega. So, in theory, you could be one of the worst plate racers in the series and still be hoisting the championship trophy at season's end.

It's happened before. In 2003, when Matt Kenseth won the title and was still trying to understand how the draft worked on the superspeedways, his finishes in the four restrictor-plate races went as follows: 20th, 27th, 37th, and 37th. More evidence that Daytona success means absolutely zero in the big picture: the 2006 and '07 winners of the 500, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman, still haven't reached Victory Lane since their celebrations in Daytona.

So now the circuit moves to California Speedway, a two-mile oval, in Fontana for Sunday's Auto Club 500. Because of the offseason testing ban that NASCAR instituted to save teams money, most in the garage expect the beginning of the 2009 season to closely resemble the end of '08. This means, in all likelihood, the drivers to beat on Sunday will be -- surprise, surprise -- Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch.

All three excelled at California Speedway last February, when they finished first (Edwards), second (Johnson), and fourth (Busch). Then last August at Fontana this trio came in first (Johnson), sixth (Edwards), and seventh (Busch). Until proven otherwise, these are your three leading championship contenders this season, but there are five other drivers that I think have a shot at surprising the favorites at Fontana and then again at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 1.

1. Mark Martin. On the day before Daytona 500, I sat down with Rick Hendrick in his motor coach that was parked in the infield for a 30 minute talk. But no matter what subject I broached, Hendrick always steered the conversation back to the 50-year-old Martin, who signed a one-year deal with Hendrick this offseason to make one last push at his first championship before he retires. "He has energized our whole organization," Hendrick said. "He's got the energy of a 20-year-old. And I tell you what: He's going to surprise a lot of people this year. I think it's going to be a great story."

Throughout his lengthy career, Martin's strength has been on intermediate-length tracks like California and Vegas. If there was one chink in the Hendrick armor last season -- and this is a very, very minor quibble -- it was the team's overall performance at these 1.5- and 2-mile venues. Hendrick believes the feedback that Martin will provide to his other teammates at these tracks will be the key in out-running the stable of drivers from Roush Fenway Racing, which was the team to beat on the intermediates last season.

Expect Martin to lead laps on Sunday. In his past five starts at Fontana he has finished in the top 10 three times, including second- and third-place showings. Considering that he swears he's in the best equipment of his career -- which, by the way, is a not-so-subtle jab at his former longtime owner Jack Roush -- Martin should be a factor.

2. Tony Stewart. Stewart had an impressive debut in the 500 for Stewart Haas Racing. He finished eighth at Daytona, expertly riding the draft to the front of the field. But now we'll find out just what kind of juice Stewart has under the hood. California Speedway is all about horsepower and handling. Stewart Haas Racing essentially is a satellite team of Hendrick Motorsports -- they get their engines and chassis from Hendrick -- and on Sunday we'll get our first peek at what Stewart's team is capable of doing with Hendrick's tools.

3. Kasey Kahne. If you just look at the result sheet from the Daytona 500, Richard Petty Racing jumps out as the surprise team of the race. This offseason Petty Enterprises merged Gillette Evernham Racing to form Richard Petty Racing. Expectations for this team were low in the garage, as it didn't boast a single driver that advanced to the Chase last season. But then on Sunday, Petty had three drivers rip off top-10 finishes: A.J. Allmendinger (third), Elliott Sadler (fifth), and Reed Sorensen (ninth). I would argue that these impressive runs were more a result of the top contenders getting knocked out of the race in the Big One, but still, this team was one of best stories to emerge out of Daytona.

Can they keep it going? Petty's best hope for a top-five run on Sunday rests with Kahne, who came in 29th at Daytona. The winner of two races last season, Kahne has always excelled at Fontana, where in 10 career starts he has seven top-10 finishes and one victory. Kahne is a former dirt-track racer, and he relishes flat-tracks like California where the cars slide all over the place like they do on the dirt. If he can stay with the leaders on Sunday, it will make a statement that this team may not be the afterthought that everyone expected.

4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Little E had a nightmarish 500. He made two mental errors on pit road, costing him valuable track position, and then banged into Brian Vickers midway through the race, triggering the Big One. Earnhardt has been roundly blamed as the instigator of the crash -- though, personally, after reviewing the tape more than 20 times, I think the majority of the fault lies with Vickers -- and he'll be the driver under the most pressure on Sunday.

Fontana isn't one of Junior's better tracks. In 14 career starts there, his average finish is about 20th. Yet Junior needs a solid run. Because every time he struggles, there's a loud chorus in the media and on Internet fan sites that Earnhardt is the most overrated driver not just of today, but of all-time. And trust me, Little E hears this.

5. Jamie McMurray. McMurray was the driver during Speedweeks at Daytona who most caught my eye. In practice sessions, in the Budweiser Shootout, in his qualifying race, and in the 500, he consistently ran in the front and showed as much poise on the track as anyone. Though he finished 37th after getting caught up in a wreck, McMurray, to me, looks like he's finally ready to make a serious charge at qualifying for the Chase this season.

In his 223 Cup starts, McMurray only has two victories. But his owner Jack Roush has patiently stood by him for the past four years while McMurray has only recorded 10 top-five finishes. Will Roush's patience pay off this season? We'll begin to find out on Sunday at Fontana, where McMurray hasn't finished higher than 16th in his last five starts.

So who's my pick to take the checkers on Sunday? I'm going with Edwards. Over the last year no team has been consistently better on the intermediates than the No. 99 boys. This, more than anything, is why the back-flippin', hyper-aggressive Edwards is SI's pick to win the 2009 championship. And it says here that his drive to the title begins on Sunday.