The annual stock report: Which teams to buy, sell and keep

Led by sophomore Nolan Smith, Duke's stock is on the rise. AP Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

The tanking numbers on the NASDAQ got you down? Tired of seeing your 401(k) turn into a 201(k)? Had enough of that bald guy in the vest on CNN speaking about a financial panic?

Fear not, my fellow Hoopheads. There is one element of the U.S. economy that is absolutely recession-proof. It is called college basketball.

With the games as exciting as ever, with parity and megaconferences the order of the day, with the titillating specter of a postseason playoff just two-and-a-half months away, the college basketball stock market is more bullish than ever. As conference season gets underway it is once again time for your resident analyst to offer my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report for your reading -- and shopping -- pleasure.

Veteran HTSR readers know the drill. I have selected 30 teams and assigned them a rating of Buy, Sell or Hold. I arrived at those ratings by comparing where each team is now to where I believe it is heading. A team's current value is a reflection of its won-loss record, its ranking in this week's AP Poll, and that all-important, ever-subjective criterion called "buzz."

In the twisted logic of the HTSR, the better a team is, the more likely its stock will be rated a Sell, because it has that much more room to fall. Conversely, there are a few teams out there that are not even ranked but warrant a Buy because I expect them to enter the rankings soon. So before you get all in a lather because I rated your favorite team a Sell and your no-good brother-in-law's favorite team a Buy, that does not mean I believe he will have the last word over you in March.

In parentheses besides each team, I have listed their record as of January 5 and standing in this week's AP Poll. Happy shopping, Hoopheads.

ARIZONA (9-5, NR) SELL

I wanted to believe the Wildcats were turning the corner after they walloped Kansas by 17 points, but following their losses at Cal and Stanford last weekend, it's apparent to me that this group is still not ready for prime time. (That is to say, win on the road.) Arizona did not make a single three-pointer against Stanford, but instead of locking down on defense to make up for it, the Wildcats allowed the Cardinal to shoot 45 percent from the floor and score 76 points. Arizona also attempted just seven free throws against Cal. Without defense, toughness or depth, it's hard to get to the NCAA tournament, much less win games once you're there.

ARIZONA STATE (12-2, No. 20) SELL

ASU's ranking is modest, but I still think people's expectations of the Sun Devils are higher than what they're prepared to deliver. Yes, James Harden is terrific, but beyond him and 6-foot-9 senior forward Jeff Pendergraph, there's no one who strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. Thus, I expect we'll see quite a few games like the one the Sun Devils played at Cal on Sunday night, when Harden scored 26 points, Pendergraph scored 16 and they still lost by 10 because nobody else stepped up. The hardest thing about playing ASU may not be Harden, but rather their unconventional zone defense. However, a unique system will only get you so far. There are simply too many other good teams out there.

CLEMSON (14-0, No. 12) BUY

I'm warning you, folks, I'm developing a serious man-crush on Clemson. In past seasons I've been skeptical about the Tigers' undefeated starts, and I've usually been proven correct. This year it's my optimism that will be proven correct. Clemson earned impressive road wins at Illinois and at Miami (by 19 points). The Tigers could have wilted after falling behind 14-3 at South Carolina last week, but behind their withering full-court pressure they rallied to win by 11 behind Terrence Oglesby's 25 points. South Carolina knocked off No. 23 Baylor in its next game, making Clemson's comeback seem all the more impressive.

CONNECTICUT (12-1, No. 5) BUY

We take for granted that Jim Calhoun's teams will play tough defense, but this team is still developing that identity. Let's not overreact to one bad game against Georgetown. We know UConn's defense will get better, especially since Calhoun promoted 6-9 junior forward Stanley Robinson into the starting lineup after the loss to the Hoyas. There are other ways this team is set to improve as well; A.J. Price is still figuring out just how to run the team from the point and Jerome Dyson needs to learn to stay in control. But the pieces are clearly in place for a run at the championship. Another nice piece could join the team if Australian native Ater Majok gets cleared by the NCAA in the next few weeks.

DUKE (12-1, No. 2) BUY

To rate the Blue Devils a Buy, I'd have to believe they are not going to fade down the stretch like they have the last two years and that they will challenge for the title. That's exactly what I believe. Brian Zoubek isn't going to make anyone forget Hakeem Olajuwon (or Dudley Bradley for that matter), but the 7-1 junior center is the perfect antidote to the Blue Devils' past problems inside. This team is actually ranked third in the nation in rebound margin (+10.5), fifth in defensive efficiency and 12th in offensive efficiency. And they've done it without being a great three-point shooting team (32.1 percent, down from 37.7 percent last season). Duke's one hiccup at Michigan came not just because the Blue Devils shot poorly but because they were too reliant on jump shots. Best of all, they don't have any freshmen among their top eight players, so they are flush with NCAA tournament experience.

FLORIDA (12-2, NR) SELL

The Gators haven't been ranked for several weeks, but I get the feeling people see those uniforms, they see Billy Donovan on the sidelines, and they expect that big things are going to happen eventually. I don't. Nick Calathes is a very good individual talent, but I'm not sure he has total trust in his teammates when it comes to running this offense. More fatally, the Gators are painfully thin on the interior, which is why they're ranked 11th in the SEC in rebound margin (+1.9). If you're a Florida fan, you should consider it a successful season if your squad gets into the NCAA tournament. Anything after that is gravy.

GEORGETOWN (10-3, No. 9) BUY

Welcome to life in the Big East. After pulling off a major statement win at UConn on Dec. 29, the Hoyas have dropped two straight to Pitt and Notre Dame. Well, so what? Lots of teams are going to lose to Pitt and Notre Dame, just like lots of teams will continue to lose to Georgetown. The good news for this team is twofold: Freshman center Greg Monroe is even better than advertised, and the Hoyas' starting five is as tough and talented as just about any team in the nation. The bad news is Georgetown is getting no production out of its bench. I fear that is going to take its toll over the sadistic grind of the Big East season, but you may not get a chance to buy this stock after a two-game losing streak again, so I'd recommend you scoop it up, because I am sticking by my preseason prediction that by the time the NCAA tournament rolls around, this Georgetown team will be better than last year's group that earned a No. 2 seed but lost to Davidson in the second round.