Why the Heels will win Round 1, Alabama's coaching search, more

Since North Carolina's loss to Wake Forest, the Tar Heels' Wayne Ellington has averaged 20.1 points per game. Icon SMI Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

This is a glorious time for fans of Tobacco Road hoops. Over the next five weeks, we will get to watch North Carolina and Duke play each other twice, maybe even a third time if they meet again in the ACC tournament, or -- dare I say it aloud -- a fourth in the NCAA tournament (which has never happened.) And if that's not enough, on Feb. 23, HBO will debut a one-hour documentary Battle For Tobacco Road: Duke vs. North Carolina, which will explore the storied, fascinating and acrimonious history of the best rivalry in all of sports.

But what, exactly, will be at stake Wednesday night when No. 3 North Carolina and No. 6 Duke tango in Cameron Indoor Stadium? Yes, the winner will get the inside track for an ACC regular season championship, but if there's one thing we've learned in this wacky season, it's that success can be fleeting. It wouldn't surprise me if whoever wins this game loses their next one. (UNC plays at Miami Sunday; Duke is at Boston College.)

The biggest thing these teams will get out of this game will be answers. They want to know where they stand and what they need to do get to where they want to go. There's no better way to evaluate yourself than by playing a big game against top competition. Here, then, are the top three questions each team is looking to answer:

North Carolina

1. How good is our D? As I wrote in last week's mailbag, the Tar Heels' defensive stats indicate that they are not as deficient on that side of the ball as many people suspect (kenpom.com ranks them 19th nationally in defensive efficiency). Still, when you allow Maryland to score 91 points even while you beat them, it raises the question. If North Carolina goes into Cameron and shuts down a Duke squad that scores 78.2 points per game, that will be an important step towards establishing its defensive respectability.

2. Who is the real Wayne Ellington? In North Carolina's only two losses to Boston College and Wake Forest, Ellington shot a combined 11 for 29 from the field, including 4 for 14 from three-point range. In the seven games since then, he has been on an absolute tear, averaging 20.1 points while shooting 53.9 percent from the floor and 48.9 percent from three. (Prior to the BC loss, Ellington was making 43.4 percent from the floor and 35.5 percent from three.) As great as Tyler Hansbrough is, he has trouble scoring against double teams. He needs Ellington to keep up his hot shooting.

3. Do they need Tyler Zeller? When the 7-foot freshman forward broke his wrist in the season's second game, it appeared he would be lost for the season. Now, Roy Williams is dropping hints that he may use Zeller at the end of the season. It's a tough call because if Williams plays Zeller, then the kid would not be able to get the year back. But North Carolina has also lost Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves for the rest of the season. If they lose Wednesday and go into a slump, the temptation to bring Zeller off the DL might be too big to resist.

Duke

1. How bad is their point guard problem? Much of the discussion about the Blue Devils' vulnerabilities has centered on, well, their center. But the only thing more disconcerting than Brian Zoubek's recent collapse is Nolan Smith's total lack of assertiveness. After dishing out just 11 assists in the Blue Devils' first seven ACC games, Mike Krzyzewski benched Smith for the Miami game in favor of senior Greg Paulus (who will also start against North Carolina). That made Duke much less potent on defense, but Coach K had no choice. That, however, was a temporary fix. For Duke to be at its best in the long run, Smith needs to play much better.

2. Who is the real Jon Scheyer? Scheyer's 22-point performance against Miami was the best thing to come out of that great escape, because up until then the 6-5 junior had been mired in a horrendous shooting slump. Even worse, in four of the previous five games, Scheyer had not shot a single free throw. He is this team's toughest player and best leader. If Scheyer's confidence is suffering, the Blue Devils might as well pack it in.

3. Do they need Tony Robbins? Physically, Duke has all the pieces it needs to win a national championship. The question is whether this team has the mental fortitude to weather its first real piece of adversity. There's no shame in losing at Clemson, but it was shocking to see the Blue Devils get run out of the gym without a fight. Their stupor carried over through the first 25 minutes of the Miami game before they rallied. Well, guess what: They're not playing Miami on Wednesday. If the Devils are down 16 with 17 minutes to play, they could get run out of the gym again -- and not even the best mental guru will help them recover.

I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I can predict what I think will happen. The Heels will be tougher on D, they'll overmatch Duke inside and they'll benefit from Ellington's continued hot hand. I do believe Duke will put up a good fight, but in the end that won't be enough. Round 1 goes to the Heels, 88-80.