The answer man (cont.)

Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

For a guy who says the No. 1 seed question is unimportant, why are you taking so many questions about the number one seeds?

You're right. Next question.

We all know the ACC and the Big East have been by far the best two conferences in the country. So why do you say the Big Ten could end up getting as many teams, if not more, into the tournament?

Just because league A gets more bids than league B, it doesn't mean that league A is better. The Big East and the ACC are probably going to account for at least three of the four No. 1 seeds, and at least seven of the top 16 overall. The Big Ten's RPI profile is such that the league will benefit in much the same way the Missouri Valley Conference did in 2006, when it sent four teams into the tournament. Seven of the Big Ten's 11 teams are ranked in the top 50 of the RPI, so its schools had ample opportunities to get quality wins. Right now there are nine teams who have a very real shot to get into the tournament. It's highly unlikely that all nine will get in -- for example, Minnesota's game against Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament is probably an elimination game -- but seven is the minimum. Many of them will be seeded nine or lower.

Wait a minute, did you just say Northwestern? This is a column about the NCAA tournament, right?

Indeed, the Wildcats have never reached the NCAA tournament. As astounding as it seems, Northwestern could be on the verge of doing just that. I seem to be the only one who is touting their candidacy to this extent, but think of it this way. Heading into the Big Ten tournament, Northwestern is 6-9 against teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI. Compare that with other bubble teams like South Carolina (0-4), Florida (2-6), Rhode Island (3-5) and Virginia Tech (3-7). Not only that, but two of Northwestern's top 50 wins came on the road against Michigan State and Purdue. Plus, Northwestern beat Florida State, which looks to be headed for a 4 or 5 seed. Yes, the Wildcats are 17-12 and they're ranked 71st in the RPI (which is a killer), but only one of their losses came against teams ranked below 100. So don't count 'em out.

What are some other bubble teams that have a better chance to make it than people realize? And what are some teams that are in worse shape than we think?

It is really hard to like any bubble team right now, but this is nothing new. (Now you see why I'm vehemently opposed to expansion.) I'm still seeing a lot of Internet brackets that have South Carolina in the tourney, but for the life of me I can't figure out why. Yes, South Carolina swept Kentucky. That plus $2 gets you a ride on a New York City subway. Besides that, the Gamecocks' best win was at home by one point over fellow bubble boy Florida. (And even that one took a miraculous full-court touchdown pass for a layup at the buzzer.) I might be more favorable toward the Gamecocks if they had played a decent nonconference schedule, but they are ranked 278th in the country in that category. That won't cut it with the Answer Man.

As for a bubble team that is in better shape than you think, I realize that Virginia Tech has lost six of its last seven games, so that probably has the Hokies on the outside looking in. But they do have three quality road wins at Wake Forest, Clemson and Miami. Plus, for what it's worth, remember this team lost two tough nonconference games at the buzzer -- at home against Wisconsin, and on a neutral court against Xavier, which beat the Hokies on a buzzer-beating half-court shot. I know we can't get too deep into the weeds of how teams lost, but come on, a half-court shot? At least let that creep into your thinking.

Who will be the most difficult team for the committee to assess?

Hands down, the answer is Saint Mary's. On the one hand, if Patty Mills didn't get hurt, this was not only one of the best 34 at-large candidates, it was also one of the best 25 teams in the country. But the fact is, Mills did get hurt, and while the Gaels played reasonably well without him (they lost four of six but then ran off five straight, including a rout at home over then No. 23 Utah State), he looked like a shell of his former self during their two West Coast Conference tournament games, scoring a combined 17 points on 5-for-28 shooting. Saint Mary's needed to make a statement during the tourney final Monday night, but lost by 25 to Gonzaga. The reality is, Saint Mary's is left with just two wins over teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI and an overall RPI ranking of 46. If Mills looked the way he had before his injury, this would be a no-brainer. Now ... well, it's a brainer.

Who is this year's Davidson?

Alas, we know it won't be Davidson. It's hard to contemplate an NCAA tournament without Stephen Curry, but that's what we're headed for after the Wildcats lost in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament. Curry did all he could, but their failure to win the league underscores just how valuable point guard Jason Richards was to the squad last season.

I've been saying all season that Saint Mary's would be this year's Davidson, but in light of Mills's injury I'll go with Siena. Much like Davidson last year, Siena played a very tough nonconference schedule this season. Yes, it lost all the big games, but it still got better by playing them, and as you saw by the way it routed a very good Niagara team Monday night, it has great poise and experience, and it can score from lots of different places. Remember now, this team returned all five starters from the team that blitzed Vanderbilt in the first round of last year's tournament.

We know there will be a couple of shockers on Selection Sunday. So who could be this year's Syracuse '07?

This is the Orange team that was left out despite going 22-10 (10-6 Big East) and being ranked 50th in the RPI. So if there is a team out there that is bound to be shocked, my vote would go to Ohio State. The Buckeyes went 10-8 in the Big Ten, but their best road win was at Michigan. Their second-best road win came at Miami, which played most of the game without leading scorer Jack McClinton, who was ejected for a flagrant foul.

On the flip side, who could be this year's Air Force '06?

Well, I'm pretty sure it won't be Air Force, considering the Falcons were winless in the Mountain West. But if you recall, very few experts even considered having Air Force in the field that year, yet the committee, in a blatant act of sentimentality, gave the Falcons an at-large bid. (After this happened, the committee subtly changed its mission from finding the "most deserving" teams for at-large bids to the "best" 34.)

So if you're looking for a shock this weekend, look out for Auburn. At a time when just about every bubble team has been stringing together embarrassing losses, the Tigers were winning eight of their last nine games, including road wins at Mississippi State and Alabama and home wins over Tennessee and LSU. Auburn is ranked 64th in the RPI and went 5-7 on the road. If they win two games in the SEC tournament, things could get really interesting.

All right, let's cut to the chase here. Who is going to win this thing?

I like to save my official pick for the Selection Show. If I spoiled the suspense here, what reason would you have to watch? While I always reserve the right to wait until the last possible moment to make up my mind, let's just say it's pretty unusual for a city to celebrate both a Super Bowl championship and an NCAA championship in the same year. This is feeling like one of those years.

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