Could Memphis be a three-seed?; other burning tourney questions

Could Jeff Teague and Wake Forest fly past the top seeds in the NCAA tournament? AP Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Related Links WINN: On the road to the NCAA tournament BRACKET: The latest tournament projection

You got questions, man? Then you need answers, man.

Actually, you need the Answer Man. Fortunately he's on the line, ready to solve all your selection week mysteries:

Is the NCAA tournament going to be as wide open as everybody says?

Nope. We may have had a do-si-do at the top of the polls, but the four who have shared the No. 1 ranking the most (Pitt, North Carolina, UConn and Oklahoma) have been a pretty solid first tier. So I'll go on record and say I think there's a 57.1 percent chance that the national champ will come from that quartet. Why? Because over the last 28 years, a No. 1-seeded team has won the tourney 16 times. And 20 of those 28 champs have been one or two seeds. (Stop trying to do math in your head. It's 71.4 percent.) The teams seeded lower than No. 2 who won it all during that span were Florida '06 (3), Syracuse '03 (3), Arizona '97 (4), Michigan '89 (3), Kansas '88 (6), Villanova '85 (8), NC State '83 (6) and Indiana '81 (3).

(By the way, I'd like to credit Wayne Fidelman of CBS for providing me with that info. You didn't think the Answer Man did his own research, did you?)

OK, so the chances are against it, but among the teams likely to be seeded below the two line, who is most likely to win the whole thing?

The one team that leaps to mind is Wake Forest, which is arguably the most talented team (based on future NBA players) in the country. Right now, the Deacs are a three seed on my board. Otherwise, when I'm looking for upsets I look for teams with great guard play, which has me looking at Villanova, LSU and Washington.

Who are your No. 1 seeds at this point?

The Answer Man would like to ask his own question: Is there any topic in all of sports that generates more conversation for less reason than who the No. 1 seeds are? If you're good enough to win the tournament, you're good enough to win it from anywhere. Yes, the percentages favor the No. 1 seeds, but that's not because of where they're seeded. It's because you have to be one of the best four teams in the country to get there.

Anyway, to answer your question, I still like that top quartet of Pitt, UConn, North Carolina and Oklahoma. I see some people are already sticking Louisville on the top line based on their outright regular-season Big East championship, but while that is a worthy accomplishment, keep in mind that the Cardinals did not have to play either UConn or Pitt on the road. (They split those two games at home.) Also, their losses are worse than Oklahoma's. Louisville lost at home to UNLV (when the Rebels were without their most important player, Wink Adams), and they lost on a neutral court to Minnesota and Western Kentucky. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost true road games at Arkansas and Missouri. Their other two losses were at Texas and at home against Kansas when Blake Griffin was hurt. Now, if Oklahoma fails to win the Big 12 tournament and Louisville wins the Big East tournament, then it will be a no brainer to move Louisville up. But those are two mighty big ifs.

Is it possible Louisville would be better off as a two seed than a one?

Actually, it is quite possible. Keep in mind the Selection Committee seeds the entire field 1 through 65. So if Louisville is No. 4 overall on the board, then the Cardinals will likely be sent out west to Glendale, Arizona. If, however, Louisville is the No. 5 overall team on the board, it would have first dibs among the two seeds on the regional sites among the two seeds (as long as another Big East team isn't the No. 1 seed there). Thus, they could very well end up in Memphis opposite North Carolina or Indianapolis opposite Oklahoma. At that point in the tournament, it's especially critical to get as many of your own fans into the building as you can. Louisville knows this well, having lost to UNC last year in the East Regional Final in Charlotte.

Which team that you haven't mentioned yet is the most likely to jump to the one line?

You might think the answer is Memphis, which is ranked fourth in this week's AP Poll, but you'd be wrong. I know John Calipari hates to hear this (stop reading the Internet, Cal!), but though his Tigers may be of Final Four timber, they don't have nearly the résumé required to earn a No. 1 seed. They have just four wins over teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI. There are bubble teams who won't make the tournament who have more than that.

The reason Memphis doesn't have more significant wins isn't just because it plays in Conference USA. Its three most important nonconference games were against Xavier on a neutral court, at Georgetown and at home against a Syracuse team that was playing without Eric Devendorf. It lost all three. It did earn tough road wins at Gonzaga and Tennessee, but that will not be enough to earn them a one seed. In fact, Memphis (stop reading here, Cal, I beg you!) right now is closer to being a three seed than a one.

The team that really has a chance to ascend to that top line is Michigan State, which is 12-2 against teams ranked in the top 50 and won the Big Ten regular season by four games. If the Spartans win the Big Ten tournament and enough teams currently ahead of them falter, they'll be a No. 1 seed.