Chalk it up: Betting on three No. 1 seeds to head to the Final Four

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Feeling Sweet, Hoopheads? Of course you are. It's our time of year, and this is another week to soak it up. I'm sure devoted readers of this space are not surprised the Sweet 16 includes all the number 1, 2 and 3 seeds for the first time in tournament history. I've been writing for weeks that, for all the tumult at the top of the polls, this was still a very top-heavy season in college basketball. It's too bad there aren't more Cinderellas to spice up the dance, but there's a payoff ahead as we get a weekend full of games played by the most powerful and recognizable brands in college basketball.

Here, then, is my breakdown of the bracket. As usual, any similarities between my predictions and the actual course of events is strictly coincidental.

Midwest

Looking back: First of all, since I was one of the many voices in the Arizona-shouldn't-have-gotten-a-bid chorus, let me give all due props to Russ Pennell's Wildcats for making the Sweet 16. I'm not a believer that a win or two automatically justifies a bid -- does Wake Forest's first-round loss mean the Deacs should have been left out? -- but Arizona has every right to feel good about what it has accomplished, especially after losing five-of-six down the stretch.

As for my Deacs, who I picked to go to the Final Four (me and my big mouth), their first-round loss to Cleveland State underscores the importance of having experience playing under elimination pressure. Those kids from Cleveland State had already been through multiple Horizon League tournaments knowing that a loss would mean the end of their season. They were used to playing under those circumstances, but the youngsters from Wake Forest were not -- and it showed. Oh, and if Jeff Teague still thinks he's ready for the NBA, he ought to watch tape from the last month of the season.

Looking ahead: I don't take Louisville's close escape against Siena as a sign the Cardinals are flawed. Quite the contrary: they came back to beat a really good team in a really big game. That shows me they are of championship mettle. The problem they will face in their next game is that, unlike Siena, Arizona has a quality big man in Jordan Hill. That means Samardo Samuels is not going to be as effective. (Samuels has had a terrific freshman year, but he tends to disappear against players who are bigger and stronger than he is.) So the question becomes whether Arizona's guards, specifically Nic Wise, can handle Louisville's full-court pressure for 40 minutes. If they can, then they will be right in the ball game.

Meanwhile, Kansas sophomore center Cole Aldrich is coming off one of the best games in NCAA tournament history, a triple-double against Dayton, but as the Spartans showed in shutting down USC's Taj Gibson, they have numerous bigs (most notably Goran Suton) who are excellent in defending the post. And they have a lot of them, whereas Kansas just has one. Advantage, Spartans.

The pick: Wise has been terrific at times, but he's also been careless with the ball -- hence Arizona's inconsistent play late in the season. Louisville has the ability to force Wise into committing mistakes, and the Cards also have the wings to make 'Zona pay in transition. That will be the difference. In the other game, Michigan State's strength up front, plus its veteran toughness in the backcourt, gives them the edge over Kansas. (If anyone can keep Sherron Collins in check, it's MSU's Travis Walton, one of my All-Glue nominees.)

Much like Arizona, Michigan State's Achilles' heel has been turnovers. That's why Louisville is such a bad matchup for them. I've wondered whether a team who is so suspect at the point can win a national championship, but Louisville has proven it has the chops to at least win two more games. The Cardinals will utilize their rapid pace and sprint to Detroit.

West

Looking back: Only in the NCAA tournament could a player like Memphis' Roburt Sallie, whose previous high was 13 points, come off the bench and score 35 while helping his team escape a wicked first-round upset. Think about it -- if Sallie only scores a career-high 20, Memphis bows out in the first round. Even though the Tigers had to feel good about walloping Maryland in the second round, this team is still much more of an unknown quantity than last year's team was at this time.

Purdue's JaJuan Johnson was the MVP from this region during the first two rounds. He was sensational against Washington in the second round (22 points, 4 blocks). I expected Johnson to have a good sophomore year, but not this good.

For the record, I think the pseudo-controversy about Mike Anderson subbing in Kim English for J.T. Tiller before the game-winning free throws is ridiculous. Tiller is a better free-throw shooter than English, plus he's a junior while English is a freshman. Now comes word Tiller may have broken his right hand but is refusing to have it X-rayed. What else would you expect from my All-Glue captain?

Looking ahead: Johnson did a terrific job against Washington's Jon Brockman. I don't know if you've noticed, but Hasheem Thabeet is no Jon Brockman. UConn is the only team in the Sweet 16 who didn't suffer through any kind of scare last week. That has to be a huge confidence boost. Maybe folks out there (OK, me) should stop wondering when this team is going to falter without Jerome Dyson. He has been out for a month now, but the Huskies continue to play fabulous basketball.

On the other side of the bracket, Missouri is the worst kind of matchup for Memphis because a) the Tigers enjoy playing up-tempo, and b) they enjoy playing defense almost as much as Memphis does. These two teams also have the same weakness: outside shooting. In the end, this game will come down to who takes better care of the basketball and who makes outside jumpers. Getting lucky down the stretch never hurts, either.

The pick: I had Memphis beating UConn in my original bracket. I might as well stick with that pick, but I'm certainly a lot less confident than I was a week ago. It will be a wildly entertaining game if that's the matchup we get. I give Memphis the edge because I think Tyreke Evans is a better player than A.J. Price. It's a lot to ask a freshman to outplay a senior in a regional final, but my sense is Evans is up to the task.