U.S. will qualify, but do it in style?

By Mike Woitalla, Special to SI.com, Soccer America

The U.S. clinched a spot in the World Cup the last time it faced Mexico in Columbus four years ago, with three qualifiers still to play. David Bergman/SI

It was in the 69th minute of the U.S.' game in Mexico City's Azteca Stadium in 1997 that the Americans pulled it off. They got the Mexican fans, who numbered 114,000, to turn on their own team.

The Steve Sampson-coached Americans lost defender Jeff Agoos in the 32nd minute to a red card from Argentine referee Javier "The Sheriff" Castrilli for elbowing Pável Pardo. But the Mexicans couldn't take advantage.

And late in the second half the Mexican fans began jeering El Tri -- not even sparing the popular goalkeeper Jorge Campos when he picked up the ball. They shouted for the ouster of coach Bora Milutinovic.

When Castrilli awarded Mexico a throw-in after the Americans appealed it was theirs, they booed the Sheriff. And they chanted "Olé!" to each U.S. pass. The game ended in a 0-0 tie, the best result ever for the U.S. in Mexico City, where the Americans have lost all 19 other games against El Tri dating back to 1937.

The U.S. and Mexico, which also tied on American soil before the Azteca draw, both qualified for the 1998 World Cup. In the next two qualifying campaigns, with Bruce Arena as U.S. coach, CONCACAF's two giants each won their home games against the other and both qualified.

This time around, as the U.S. aims to reach the World Cup a sixth straight time, it begins the final round of qualifying by hosting Mexico on Wednesday in Columbus, Ohio.

For sure, opening in the U.S. has to be the worst-case scenario for the Mexicans, who have been in poor form recently. In the semifinal round, Mexico went winless in its last three games and only advanced to the Hexagonal ahead of Jamaica thanks to goal difference. And Mexico is winless -- eight losses and two ties -- at the U.S. since 2000.

There's something about facing the U.S. north of the border that frays the Mexican players' nerves. Perhaps the prospect of losing to the nation with which it shares a 2,000-mile border -- and where more than 20 million people of Mexican descent reside -- drains their confidence.

How else to explain that, in '07, Mexico lost to the U.S. 2-1 in Chicago in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final, then three days later defeated Brazil 2-0 in Venezuela at the Copa América, which Brazil ended up winning? It's why psychologists have gone on Mexican TV to discuss the failings of the Mexican mentality when the national team faces the U.S.

Besides having to travel to Ohio to start the Hexagonal, the Mexicans are also hurt by how the draw placed their home game against the Americans. They host on Aug. 12, which is a Wednesday. In the past, Mexico has welcomed the Americans on Sundays, when they can play at noon, in the midday sun.

The fact that more Mexican players than ever are playing in Europe -- El Tri fielded as many as eight European-based players in the semifinal round -- has actually become a handicap. Fielding mainly domestic players in the past enabled El Tri to hold lengthy training camps with a full squad.

The foreign-based players will be late arrivals for Mexico's home game. And flying in from Europe means their adjustment to playing at altitude will be just as challenging as it is for their opponents. Only once has Mexico lost a World Cup qualifier at the Azteca, in '01 when Costa Rica won 2-1. The time is ripe for a first-ever U.S. victory at the Azteca.

Regardless of the results between the two archrivals, they'll both get to South Africa. Of the Hexagonal teams, three qualify automatically, and the fourth-place team faces South America's No. 5 for a spot. In the last three qualifying campaigns, the U.S. has clinched a spot before its last Hexagonal game. It qualified for Germany '06 with three games left.

For however much U.S. players and coaches like to talk about how difficult it is to play on the road against Central American and Caribbean opponents -- invoking bad fields and hostile crowds -- it ain't that tough.

Including the earlier rounds of 2010 qualifying, the U.S. has traveled to 11 CONCACAF countries in World Cup qualifying this decade. Not including games after which it had already clinched passage into the next round or the World Cup itself, the U.S. has lost only to Mexico and Costa Rica. And at home, the U.S. has lost only once over the last two decades, covering 30 World Cup qualifying games.

After its game against Mexico on Wednesday, the Americans travel to El Salvador, which hasn't qualified for a World Cup since '82 and has never beaten the U.S. in qualifying. The third opponent is Trinidad and Tobago, which qualified for its first World Cup in '06, finishing fourth in the Hexagonal to earn a playoff with Bahrain. The U.S. dismantled T&T convincingly, 3-0 in Illinois last September in the semifinal round. The Americans had already advanced when coach Bob Bradley sent an experimental squad out in Port of Spain for the rematch the Soca Warriors won 2-1 for their first-ever qualifying win over the U.S. They shouldn't pose any problems for the Americans in the Hexagonal.

Aside from the drama the Mexico opener promises, playing at Costa Rica on June 3 -- the game has been moved up a week to free the U.S. to head for the Confederations Cup -- provides the most exciting challenge for Bradley's team in the first half of the Hexagonal.

Besides Mexico, the Ticos are the only team with a winning record against the U.S. in qualifying and are notoriously strong at home, where they now play on artificial turf. They would be favorites to finish in the top three along with the U.S. and Mexico were it not for Honduras, which finished ahead of Mexico, Jamaica and Canada in the semifinal round.

Honduras beat the U.S. in Washington, D.C., in '01 after falling to the Americans in San Pedro Sula. But for however troublesome the Catrachos and Ticos can be for the U.S., they tend to slip up against other opponents.

Judging from past qualifying campaigns, including the semifinal round last year that included a dour 1-0 win at Cuba, the U.S. is likely to grind out the results it needs on the road, play a bit more impressively at home, and book a ticket to South Africa.

When they claw their way to collecting the points they need to qualify, the players will explain that these games are "battles" and not meant to be "pretty." But this time around, the bar should be set higher. The U.S. should be able to outplay its opponents regardless of the venue with superior soccer -- a possession game, clever buildup and flair.

The true measure of Bradley's team will be if it offers better soccer than what we've seen in the last three qualifying campaigns. It isn't too much to ask for a sign of real progress -- and for a win in Mexico.

This article originally appeared in the February 2009 issue of Soccer America magazine. Click here for a free three-month subscription.