The aging of the NBA's prodigies (cont.)
James is a tender 24 and physically still is transforming, if not actually growing. But he already has 18,411 on his odometer, a big number even if they're mostly highway miles. The Cleveland forward has been around long enough, playing at such a high level -- five All-Star selections, perhaps a first MVP award this season, a career average of 40.6 minutes that ranks fifth in league history -- that it's fair to wonder if he's still trending up. Or if we've already seen the best of him. James' age would suggest the former, but his games log could argue the latter.
Oscar Robertson, another do-everything, statistical marvel, turned 22 early in his rookie NBA season; James turned 19 early in his. Through six seasons, Robertson was averaging a triple double: 30.4 points, 10.7 assists and 10.0 rebounds (actually 9.95, rounding up) in 460 games, based on totals of 13,998 points, 4,923 assists and 4,579 rebounds. James, with 22 games left in his sixth NBA season, is at 12,396 points (27.5), 2,989 assists (6.6) and 3,135 rebounds (7.0).
The point, though, isn't to compare their totals or their averages. The point is to gauge where each was (or is) at, at a similar stage of his career. Robertson, through six seasons, had played 44.2 percent of his eventual 1,040 regular-season games, but he already had scored 52.4 percent of his points, dished 49.8 percent of his assists and grabbed 58.7 percent of his rebounds. His final eight seasons -- which included four years as Abdul-Jabbar's sidekick and Robertson's lone NBA championship -- were less productive (though still good enough for six All-Star trips). He averaged 21.9 points, 8.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds, worthy of a max-salary contract today but still a decline across the board personally.
It's just enough statistical evidence to call into question those who automatically say, "Wait 'til LeBron hits his peak at age 27 or 28.'' Maybe James' peak is now, shifted earlier by his hastened ... well, his hastened everything. The Cavs' superstar got to the NBA quicker than legends of the past, developed more rapidly, learned to dominate individually sooner, figured out how to prod older teammates and found ways to win games at an earlier age than so many of his predecessors. But he also has endured more wear and tear, put in longer hours, flown more airline miles, embraced more off-court opportunities-slash-distractions and, for a few years when he might have been strolling across campus for a psychology mid-term, he was picking himself off floors in Milwaukee, Denver and Indianapolis.
"He might have as much mileage on him [by age 30] as an '82 Volvo by then,'' Wizards coach Ed Tapscott said.
Modern training techniques, better nutrition and today's lavish salaries (no offseason jobs necessary, a platoon of masseurs, trainers and skill coaches at the ready) suggest that players ought to be capable of sustaining longer careers. Robertson was done at 35, same as West, Earl Monroe and Walt Frazier. John Havlicek broke some sort of barrier for wing players, lasting right up to his 38th birthday. The Pacers' Miller averaged 14.8 points, only 3.5 off his career average to that point, at age 39. Jordan turned 40 when he averaged 20.0 with Washington in 2002-03 (after, admittedly, nearly five seasons off in two stints for premature "retirements'').
For now, it's hard to know what the end results will be for the preps-to-pros players; their sample size is small and we haven't seen their end games. It's like holding off on Lasik surgery because we haven't seen enough septuagenarians come through that particular pipeline yet. Malone, who started in the ABA without benefit of college, stuck around for all or parts of 21 seasons. But Darryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby, the other pre-Garnett pioneers, flamed out too quickly to matter.
Said Tapscott, a longtime NBA personnel executive before taking over for Eddie Jordan as Wizards coach: "I don't think we've had enough generations of young guys go through to say, 'These guys have managed to add four years to their careers' or, 'These guys will find themselves debilitated by early injuries.' ''
So in lieu of answers, we're left with questions: Will the NBA's precocious ones wind up with supersized résumés, challenging all sorts of records for career this and lifetime that? Or is pro basketball activity somehow fixed, like -- some baseball scouts would contend -- the available pitches in a starting hurler's arm? If that's the case, starting sooner might invariably lead to finishing sooner, at least as an impact player.
We do know that several of the players at least talk about feeling old beyond their years. Garnett, though he used to glare at his Timberwolves coaches for yanking him to the bench for rest, would admit quietly how ground down he'd get even in his late 20s. His statistical drop-off since joining the Celtics is largely by design, sure, but also a function of his mileage. Bryant makes frequent references to his elder status, from shooting down queries about the slam dunk contest to his availability as an old guy for the 2012 Olympics. McGrady told SI.com's Ian Thomsen that he wasn't a spring chicken anymore -- back in November 2006. "I feel like the last few years, my game has diminished a little bit,'' T-Mac said then. "I don't know if it's because I'm older, because of the injuries or what, but I feel that I'm a step slower.''
It's all just enough to make you wonder what the Brooklyn era of James' career -- or the next Cleveland phase, however the chips fall in 2010 -- really will be like. And whether, when the time comes, we'll know where the time went.
Steve Aschburner covered the Minnesota Timberwolves and the NBA for 13 seasons for the Minneapolis Star Tribune. He has served as president or vice president of the Professional Basketball Writers Association since 2005.
NBA Truth & Rumors