Why the '09 Hawkeyes are like the '02 "Luckeyes," plus more mail

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Marvin McNutt's last-second TD reception to beat Michigan State has led some to compare Iowa to the 2002 "Luckeyes." AP Stewart Mandel's Mailbag Submit a question or an opinion to Stewart. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Stewart Mandel on Twitter

Ever since the BCS adopted its current formula (two-thirds human polls, one-third computer rankings) in 2004, the weekly standings releases have been largely anticlimactic. Generally, the BCS standings mirror the AP and coaches poll, plus or minus a couple of decimal points here or there.

I noticed quite the hubbub last Sunday, however, when Iowa -- seventh in the AP poll, eighth in the coaches -- suddenly showed up at No. 4 in the latest BCS standings, boosted by its consensus No. 1 ranking in the computer component. We entrust computers to protect our credit card information, deliver important documents and identify potential dating partners -- but to evaluate football teams? Now that makes us leery.

In this week's College Football Overtime, I tried to explain why exactly the machines love them some Hawkeye. Simply put, Iowa's played a stronger schedule than everyone else. (Its opponents have combined for a 38-22 record; by comparison, Florida's and Texas' have combined for a 26-24 mark, Alabama's 28-29.) And the BCS doesn't allow its computer ratings to take victory margin into consideration, so that 15-13 win last Saturday weighs no more or less than would a 30-13 beating.

But most people don't want to hear it. The Big Ten stinks! The Hawkeyes barely beat Northern Iowa! Do you really think they could beat anyone else in the top 10? I'm not saying one should necessarily trust the computers more than the voters or his or her own two eyes; I do, however, think it unwise to summarily dismiss the legitimacy of the 8-0 Hawkeyes. Here's why:

Is it just me, or does the 2009 Iowa Hawkeyes' season seem eerily similar to Ohio State's 2002 national championship season?
-- Larry, Costa Mesa, Calif.

Iowa still has a long way to go to before being mentioned in the same breath as that Ohio State team -- in fact, before that can happen it will need to beat Ohio State on the road YoNov. 14 -- but the parallels certainly exist. Much like these Hawkeyes, those Buckeyes played an old-school, often unsightly brand of football. Like Iowa, Ohio State endured an inordinate amount of last-minute escapes. But here's the most important shared trait of all: A large majority of the county refused to believe they were the juggernaut their record indicated. They were "the Luckeyes," and not until that final Ken Dorsey pass fell incomplete in Tempe did most deem them legitimate. (Except in Miami, where referee Terry Porter will forever live in infamy.)

When Ricky Stanzi completed that last-second pass to Marvin McNutt against Michigan State last Saturday night, it actually reminded me of a similar moment from that '02 Ohio State season: Craig Krenzel's 37-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins on a last-minute fourth down to win a 10-6 game at Purdue. Compare the two teams' schedules and you'll see a lot of similarities: Both needed a last-second defensive play to survive a heavy underdog early in the year (Iowa over Northern Iowa, Ohio State over Cincinnati), both scraped out low-scoring wins over Penn State in which the key play did not come on offense and both overcame second-half deficits at Wisconsin.

There are, however, some pretty notable differences. For one, the Buckeyes delivered two early nonconference routs that helped boost their credibility: A 45-21 win over Texas Tech in the now-defunct Pigskin Classic and, more impressively, a 25-7 win over eventual Pac-10 champ Washington State, ranked 10th at the time. Iowa, to its credit, beat 5-2 Arizona, currently tied for second in the Pac-10, but that game went virtually unnoticed at the time.

And then there's the personnel. While most failed to appreciated it at the time, that Ohio State team was incredibly talented. Amazingly, all 11 defensive starters and two nickel-backs were drafted, as were seven offensive starters (not including two-way starter Gamble) and kicker Mike Nugent. I'm no draft expert, but my guess is this Iowa team will wind up producing half that many. Stanzi is an underrated prospect, and the Hawkeyes clearly possess a whole bunch of big-time defensive players (defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns, safety Tyler Sash, linebackers Pat Angerer and A.J. Edds, cornerback Amari Spievey), but they don't have any elite skill players on the level of Maurice Clarett (pre-meltdown) or Jenkins, especially now that leading rusher Adam Robinson is out for the season.

Which brings me to the most important element of all: The Big Ten of 2009 is not the Big Ten of 2002. Ohio State went 8-0 in a conference that was arguably the toughest in the country that season. Four teams (OSU, Iowa, Michigan and Penn State) finished the regular season in the top 12. Five won bowl games. Two league players (Iowa's Brad Banks and Penn State's Larry Johnson) were Heisman finalists, and future NFL first-rounders included Charles Rogers, Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Dallas Clark and Robert Gallery.

Compared to those '02 Buckeyes, the '09 Hawkeyes are playing against significantly watered-down competition. However, the same may well be true nationally. Contrary to preseason speculation, '09 Florida has not looked remotely like '02 Miami. Nor has anyone else. The Hawkeyes aren't the most talented team in the country, but, at least according to the BCS computers, they've delivered the best results.

In reference to your assessment of the Heisman race and Tim Tebow being nowhere to be found ... when did the season end? I missed it.
-- David Alfonso, Largo, Fla.

Aren't you being a bit harsh on Tim Tebow? After all, Dan Mullen was his coach and mentor for the past three years and was very familiar with all the nuances of the Florida offensive scheme and Tebow's own tendencies. Can't you instead credit Mullen's absence for Tebow's frustration?
-- Bill Schultz, Overland Park, Kan.

Let me be clear. I don't believe Tebow has suddenly morphed into a crappy quarterback. My only contention is that he should not currently be mentioned as a Heisman candidate for this season.

While Tebow's yardage production (232.1 per game) hasn't dropped all that much from last season (244.2), in SEC play he's thrown just three touchdowns while committing six turnovers. As is usually the case with quarterbacks, it's not all on him, and I could list any number of contributing factors. His offensive line has played poorly. His inexperienced receiving corps is decidedly average. Florida's play-calling, particularly in the red zone (where the Gators are struggling miserably), has been extremely questionable. And let's not forget the elephant in the room: that concussion. While Florida's medical staff has deemed it safe for him to play, he could still be suffering after-effects.

At the end of the day, Florida is still 7-0 with plenty of time to work out its kinks. Tebow may well turn up his game another notch over the stretch run. What bothers me, however, is that much of the media is essentially holding open a spot for him in New York, regardless of his actual production to date. At this point, any Heisman voter/watcher who still has Tebow in his top five (and apparently, there are plenty who still do) is plain being lazy, because there are any number of players around the country who have been much more "outstanding" (the defining criteria of the award) this season. Like...