Texas' easy road, Bill Snyder's Houdini act, Navy's rise and more

Receiver Jordan Shipley and Texas have largely dominated the competition, but it's less impressive when that competition is Central Florida. John Albright/Icon SMI

I'm pleased to report the Mailbag audience met last week's proposed Mandel Plan with overwhelming approval. In embracing a more modest and, most importantly, more realistic model for improving college football's postseason, Mailbag readers have proven yet again to be more informed and more reasoned than ... well, their neighbors and co-workers. That said, several of you offered suggestions for various tweaks or improvements, which I'll address later in this column.

But forget the postseason for a minute. Unfortunately, this particular season has become increasingly aggravating for those of us who relish the sport's regular season. It's hard to say with a straight face that "every week matters" when the pollsters inexplicably drop Oregon six spots behind USC a week after the Ducks clobbered the Trojans. Or that "the season is a playoff" when Kansas State has a clearer path to the BCS right now than Boise State.

This year's national title race has been, to put it bluntly -- boring. Something feels missing, in spite of the fact six undefeated teams remain in play at such a late point in the year. That something: "big games." Florida and Alabama remain on course for an epic season-ending showdown, but to this point each has played just one conference foe (LSU) currently ranked in the BCS Top 25. The Tide, to their credit, also played Virginia Tech. However, two weeks from now, during what should be the season's "stretch run," the Gators will host Florida International, while Alabama will play Chattanooga. Yawn.

Yet those two have nothing on Texas.

It looks probable that one of the teams in the national championship game will only have one win against a currently ranked team (Oklahoma State). In fact, that team may make the championship game with ZERO wins over currently ranked teams if the Cowboys lose to Oklahoma. Erase preconceived notions about strength of schedule. How can this be explained?
-- Brandon C, Boise

It's true. Due to a strange confluence of events, the Longhorns -- despite playing in one of the nation's perceived "power conferences" -- could wind up reaching the BCS Championship Game with one of the weakest schedules of any recent participant. In the latest Sagarin ratings, Texas' schedule strength ranks 52nd nationally. And unlike Alabama (No. 25) and Florida (No. 42), which will benefit from playing each other, Texas' schedule likely won't look any stronger come season's end. Using Jerry Palm's expanded BCS ratings at CollegeBCS.com, we can see Texas' remaining opponents rank 75th (Baylor), 69th (Kansas) and 65th (Texas A&M). Its most likely Big 12 title game opponents, Nebraska and Kansas State, rank 31st and 43rd.

Only one team has made the BCS title game toting a Sagarin schedule rating outside the top 40: Ohio State (53rd) in 2007. As you may recall, that team was criticized all season for "not playing anyone" and decried by many as undeserving of its spot. The main reason you're not hearing that about Texas is because the 'Horns aren't coming off a 41-14 title-game butt-whipping the year before, as the Buckeyes were that season. On the contrary, Texas went 12-1 in a very tough conference last year, brought back a Heisman runner-up quarterback and has mostly dominated its opposition as predicted. Personally, I have more confidence in Texas right now than Florida or Alabama. After a slow start, Colt McCoy and his receivers are clicking like last year, and the 'Horns' defense has been impregnable.

But I'm willing to admit I might be reading too much into a blowout of UCF.

Obviously, the 'Horns have no control over the strength of their conference. It's not their fault annual archrival Oklahoma is enduring its worst season in a decade; that divisional foes Texas Tech and Oklahoma State both lost to Houston; that Nebraska suddenly has a defense but no offense; or that Kansas and Missouri have returned to their pre-2007 state. They do, however, control their other four opponents -- Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and UCF. In fairness, Wyoming was an 11th-hour replacement for Arkansas, which postponed the second half of a home-and-home that began last season. Still, it's a shame Texas' potential 2009 title season won't feature a defining moment like Vince Young's last-minute touchdown pass at Ohio State in 2005.

Here's what's particularly interesting, though: You may have noticed the 'Horns are ranked just fifth by the BCS computers (as opposed to second in the Harris and coaches polls). As of today, Texas' schedule strength is actually lower than TCU's (47th), according to Sagarin. We've long assumed a non-BCS team could never play for the championship because it plays a weaker schedule than those from the Big Six, but at least one objective measuring stick says the Horned Frogs have actually played tougher competition so far than the Big 12's top team. Someone ought to tell Mack Brown.

Lest we get ahead of ourselves, I asked Palm to project the remaining undefeated teams' final computer standings based on their remaining opponents' schedules. "Texas would come out on top," he said, followed by Cincinnati and TCU. While the Bearcats (whose schedule currently ranks 67th) will benefit from remaining games against No. 12 Pittsburgh and No. 25 West Virginia, the Horned Frogs' score will suffer from season-ending games against No. 80 Wyoming and No. 117 New Mexico.

As a result, few will have reason to complain about the 'Horns' anticipated ascension should they win out. But barring a dramatic Thanksgiving-night escape at Texas A&M, theirs could go down as the most unmemorable 13-0 regular season imaginable. At least under the Mandel Plan, they'd face one more worthy adversary.

I understand your comparison of Notre Dame with Stanford and Northwestern, but when you stated the Irish will never sport a loaded, athletic defense like Florida or Alabama, could it be not as much a "Notre Dame" limitation as it is a "Charlie Weis" limitation? It is no secret that Weis found his fame as a very good offensive coordinator. Would the Irish be able to ascend back to the ranks of the elite with a head coach capable of bringing balance to the force?
-- Samuel, Woodbridge, Va.

There's certainly truth to that assessment of Weis. While he purportedly reevaluated his role after the 2007 season and tried to become more of a true head coach, his most noted attribute remains that of an offensive tactician, and we've yet to see proof of his overall leadership. But that doesn't change the larger point I was making about why Notre Dame, regardless of its coach, may never return to the level of Florida or Alabama.

Nobody disputes that Weis is a great offensive coach who's recruited some mega-talented offensive players. But college football is a different sport than it was in the Irish's heyday. For one thing, you don't have to be a brand-name school, nor necessarily recruit SuperPrep All-Americas, to field a powerful offense. Just look at Cincinnati. Or Houston. When Notre Dame plays Connecticut in two weeks, I highly doubt Weis' team will exceed the 711 yards the Bearcats gained against the Huskies last weekend. Likewise, if Notre Dame played Oklahoma State next week, it wouldn't necessarily score more points than the Cougars' 45. As those schools and others like them have shown, all a coach needs is the right quarterback and a few great athletes to fit his system.

Weis has done just that with guys like Jimmy Clausen, Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, and I have no doubt he could keep the pipeline flowing if given the opportunity. But to field a nationally elite defense in today's era, you need 11 Floyds and Tates. Look at the teams currently atop the national defensive rankings: Texas, Florida, TCU, Alabama and North Carolina. Those happen to be five of the fastest defenses in the country, loaded with athletes across the board. And none of them deal with the same stringent academic requirements as Notre Dame (nor does its most logical geographic counterpart, Ohio State).

The last time the Irish won a national title, in 1988, most college offenses were still run-based attacks that defenses could counter simply by being more physical. Today's offenses are built on speed, not brawn, and the best defenses are even faster. Like I said Monday, it's not that Notre Dame can't attract top-flight defensive players (see Manti Te'o), but it's unrealistic to think a selective private school in Indiana will be able to stockpile them in the same manner as, say, Alabama, which is not only ideally located but can sign 35 guys and run off the ones that don't qualify. A more realistic comparison: Boston College, a Jesuit school that's been a consistent winner this decade. The Eagles annually produce solid defenses with occasional NFL-caliber standouts (B.J. Raji, Mathias Kiwanuka, Chris Hovan), but, like Notre Dame, will never be confused with USC.

Hi Stewart, I'm a diehard K-State fan, but I have to know ... was the team always better than what the media thought and just needed a good leader in the coaching position, or is Bill Snyder really Houdini reincarnated?
-- Todd Searls, Broomfield, Colo.

Snyder has certainly made me look like an idiot. I said at the time that his rehiring reeked of desperation, and I wrote off the Wildcats as a long-term reclamation project when they opened the season by losing to Louisiana-Lafayette (as I assume most people did). But the ultimate sign of a good coach is when his team gets better throughout the course of a season, and here we are in early November looking at the very realistic possibility that K-State might play for the Big 12 title.

Obviously, these are not yet the Ell Roberson-Darren Sproles Wildcats, but they do exhibit many of the staples of Snyder's earlier teams. His defense is typically salty (20th nationally against the run), and his offensive star, not for the first time, is a juco transfer, running back Daniel Thomas. By no means is K-State a juggernaut. And the main concern I raised in my column last November still remains: What is K-State's long-term plan once Snyder re-retires? That aside, there's no denying that for a fan base that was so divided last year and a school that endured so much embarrassment last summer over its financial indiscretions, Snyder has provided the perfect shot in the arm.