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Posted: Wednesday April 29, 2009 1:42PM; Updated: Wednesday April 29, 2009 4:43PM
Ted Keith Ted Keith >
BASEBALL MAILBAG

Addressing Yankees-Sox fatigue, Pirates' promising start and more

Story Highlights

Are this season's Rays suffering the same plight as the '07 Tigers?

How long can the Dodgers' starting pitchers keep up this stellar pace?

How does Evan Longoria compare to a young Chipper Jones?

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Robinson Cano and Jason Varitek
The Red Sox swept the Yankees in the rivalry's first installment of this season.
Winslow Townson/SI
Ted Keith's Mailbag
Ted Keith will answer select questions from SI.com users in his Baseball Mailbag.
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Earlier this season, Padres closer Heath Bell caused a stir when he said that ESPN "only cares about promoting the Yankees and Red Sox and Mets and nobody else." And after last weekend's Yanks-Sox series, readers were playing a familiar tune.

Has anyone considered that the overhype given to Yankees-Red Sox is actually hurting baseball? I recognize the tradition and rivalry, but with so much attention paid to these two teams is it any wonder why ratings and interest is way down when these teams aren't playing? True baseball fans will pay attention no matter who is playing.
--Tim, Washington, D.C.

I certainly hope that last part is true, Tim, but the truth of this matter is that the Red Sox and Yankees are two of the most popular -- if not the two most popular -- teams in baseball. They are two of baseball's national teams (to a lesser degree, I'd say the Cubs, Dodgers and Mets would qualify as teams with sizable followings around the country). I'd also venture to guess that there are more Yankees and Red Sox fans than any other team. And if TV ratings and Web traffic are any indication, they are usually more passionate as a group than any other team's fans, which means that they are more likely to watch or read anything that has to do with their teams. Case in point: either the Yankees or Red Sox has led the major leagues in road attendance each of the past seven seasons (the Yankees four times, the Red Sox three times) and both teams have been in the top five every year this decade, holding down the top two spots from 2005-07.

Still, Tim raises an interesting point. So instead of just answering questions here, I'm going to ask one to all you readers out there: If you're not a fan of the Yankees or Red Sox, do you find yourself watching games that they play and/or reading stories about them anyway? Or do you consider them overhyped and try at all costs to ignore them? I'll try and print some of the responses in next week's Mailbag, so keep them brief and keep them civil.

As for the matter of the two teams on the field ...

It looks like the Rays, Jays and O's have young teams on the rise. Do you see the Yankees and Red Sox becoming less relevant in the East for at least a little while?
--Ford, Toronto

I don't think the Yankees and Red Sox will ever be less relevant any time in the near future. Putting aside for a moment the overwhelming popularity both teams enjoy (which we've already touched on above), the Red Sox are not only the most successful franchise of the past five seasons, but they're the hottest team in baseball this year. The Yankees, like any team that is successful, will get plenty of ink, but because of their humongous payroll, their brand new stadium and their immense history, they're almost as big a story when they don't win as when they do.

And let's take a look at the AL East's other three teams for a second. The Rays were the best team -- and best story -- in baseball last season, but their slow start this year has dropped them back to the rest of the pack both in terms of performance and interest. The Orioles and Blue Jays both have enough young talent in the minor leagues to think the future is bright, but neither has done enough to show that they are any kind of long-term threat this year, or beyond, to the stranglehold the Yankees and Red Sox hold over the AL East.

There once was a team that all the sports pundits were talking about having broken into the elite teams in the AL after more than a decade of epic stinking. Then, they suddenly won more than 90 games with great young pitching and players finally developing from a rich farm system. They dethroned a major established power in the AL East during the playoffs, came in favored to win the World Series, but lost 4-1 in a final game that had been delayed by inclement weather. The next year, everyone said they'd be on top again, but they stumbled out of the gate and never recovered. No, it's not Tampa Bay. It's the Detroit Tigers. In '07 people were trying to find the next Tigers while the real Detroit was stinking it up. This year everyone's looking for this year's Tampa Bay. I've got a better question. Why should we believe the '09 Rays won't be this year's 2007 Tigers?
-- Anthony Greco, Los Angeles

After 20 games, the Rays are 8-12, three games worse than the Tigers were at a similar point in 2007. Here's a statistical breakdown of those clubs through 20 games:

Hitting
AVG OBP SLG HR RBI R SO SB
2007 Tigers .242 .314 .392 20 96 103 142 11
2009 Rays .259 .334 .437 25 89 91 177 24
Pitching
IP H R ER SO BB ERA
2007 Tigers 186.2 178 93 85 128 67 4.10
2009 Rays 173 167 91 89 126 75 4.63

This year's Rays clearly have a better offense, but they're being doomed by a worse pitching staff. As brutal as the AL East is likely to be this year, the Rays have actually fared better against division foes (4-5) than against the rest of the AL (4-7). And even though it's early, the Rays would be wise not to wait much longer to turn things around. The Tigers won 88 games that year, finishing eight games behind the Indians in the Central and six games behind the Yankees in the Wild Card race. Yet they were in first place as late as mid-August, before a 6-11 swoon dropped them seven games out.

The Rays started almost as poorly last season, getting off to a 9-11 start that left them in last place, 5 1/2 games out. This year, they've been even worse, currently holding an 8-13 mark and sitting 6 1/2 games out. They'd have to play .567 ball the rest of the way to reach 88 wins and .631 ball to match last year's total of 97 wins.

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