More thoughts on my dream team, Papelbon's future and much more

Jonathan Papelbon has recorded 125 saves since taking over as Boston's closer in 2006. AP Ted Keith's Mailbag Ted Keith will answer select questions from SI.com users in his Baseball Mailbag. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Ted Keith on Twitter

Out of those guys you named for your dream team, I wonder how many will be playing for the Yankees in three years?
-- Joe, New York

Last week, I made my choices for players at each position that I would build a team around, and with a few exceptions, the picks were fairly simple: Joe Mauer at catcher, Albert Pujols at first base, Dustin Pedroia at second base, Hanley Ramirez at shortstop, Evan Longoria at third base, Ryan Braun in left field, Grady Sizemore in center, Justin Upton in right, Zack Greinke as the starter and Jonathan Papelbon as the closer. By far, the top priority in my thinking was youth, since it doesn't make sense to start a team with someone who won't be around very long.

My list was pure fantasy, but even in reality, more and more teams are emphasizing youth as never before by trying to lock up their young stars to contracts that will buy out not only their arbitration-eligible years but also some years of free agency, as well. The result has been that homegrown stars are spending more of their prime years with the team that drafted them, which should make those teams more competitive while at the same time shrinking the available pool of free-agent talent. For instance, next winter's free agent class will still have some big names in it -- Victor Martinez, Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez (if he opts out) and Cliff Lee -- but it's several names that won't be there that are even more telling: Grady Sizemore, David Wright and Justin Morneau, three players who are exactly the kind of young superstars that can normally be counted on to set the market price each winter who will not do so this time around.

In fact, of the 10 players I chose for my team, eight of them have already been signed to long-term contracts and none of them have tested the free agent market. (Only Upton and Papelbon lack long-term deals.) What's more, only one player has a contract that runs out anytime soon: Mauer's four-year contract expires in 2010. Pujols has a club option for the 2011 season at a very reasonable $16 million that, barring any unforeseen developments, would almost certainly be exercised. The rest of these young stars will not be heading to the open market before the end of the 2012 season at the earliest, and Ramirez (2014), Braun (2015), Pedroia (2015) and Longoria (2016) will take even longer to become free agents. So to answer your question, Joe, unless the Yankees are willing to make some trades, the only player they could realistically make a play for is Mauer, but since he's a beloved figure in Minnesota and a Twin Cities native, it's likely the Twins will do everything in their power to keep him in his hometown.

Ted, you built a great dream team of youth, but you forgot to turn in your batting order.
-- Ryan Paulsen, Oshkosh, Wis.

This team was certainly not built with any practical purposes in mind, which is why choosing a lineup would be so difficult. For instance, the only pure leadoff hitter in the group is Sizemore, who has struggled so significantly this season that he was dropped from the top spot in the order. With that in mind, my lineup would probably look some thing like this:

1. Ramirez
2. Pedroia
3. Pujols
4. Longoria
5. Braun
6. Mauer
7. Upton
8. Sizemore
9. Greinke (I guess this dream team's playing in an NL park ...)

Not a lot of lefties in there to balance out the right-handed threat, but I'd still like my chances at winning a few ballgames with that group.

What do you think the Red Sox should do with Jonathan Papelbon when he hits free agency, especially with 102 mph Daniel Bard waiting in the wings?
-- Max, Boston

As noted above, Papelbon is one of the few young stars in the game who has not signed a long-term contract. He'll be eligible for free agency after the 2011 season. While it would be neat to see Bard (a fellow Tar Heel) thrive at the major league level, it's more than a little premature to be suggest that he's ready to replace an All-Star like Papelbon. My hunch is that the Red Sox will see where both players are physically and in their development as pitchers before making a decision one way or the other. Bard was a fantastic starting pitcher during his collegiate career at North Carolina, so with Papelbon locked into the closers role for at least a few more years, he could still be used in that capacity if the need arises. And although the Red Sox have embraced some of the tenets of the Moneyball philosophy, a willingness to just hand the closers role to almost anyone doesn't seem like one of the ways they've followed that model. Nor should they. In Papelbon, they have a closer who has good enough stuff to last a very long time in that role. The Yankees have shown with Mariano Rivera that being able to count on a shut-down closer year after year is invaluable and teams that are fortunate enough to get pitchers of that caliber should be in no hurry to let them go.

I've noticed the stock on Marlins 2B Dan Uggla keeps dropping, and it seems to have all started with his three-error night in New York at the All-Star Game last year. Could a performance like that really get in his head and affect his game this badly, or is it something else?
-- Drew Parsons, Okeechobee, Fla.

It's certainly possible that a bad game can rattle a player's confidence, but that was an exhibition game, hardly the sort of thing that should destroy a player's ability to perform. What's more, it was a defensive nightmare, and if Uggla's stock is dropping, it's not because of his glovework, which has never been particularly stellar, but rather because of his bat. Uggla has cooled off remarkably since a torrid start to last year that had him being talked about as a possible MVP candidate. Since the All-Star Game, Uggla has played in 109 games, batting .216/.336/.402 with 17 home runs and 63 RBIs (he had 23 homers and 59 RBIs in 81 games last year before the All-Star break). Uggla claims to be a victim of bad luck as much as bad play, saying recently that several hard-hit balls were not falling for him. If that's true, it would only seem to be a matter of time before he turns it around, but the Marlins may not be able to wait that long for him if a team is willing to make them a decent trade offer.

All this talk about Ortiz's slump, but how come no one is mentioning the real reason for it. He doesn't have Manny Ramirez hitting behind him anymore. Yeah, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis are nice hitters, but Manny is one of the top five best hitters of his generation. Look at Papi's numbers prior to Manny leaving, and his numbers after Manny leaving. You can also look at his numbers before arriving in Boston and teaming up with Manny.
-- Adam, Philly

As I wrote about last week, Ortiz's problems run much deeper than any single problem. Among other contributing factors are the mental drain of his slump, his inability at recognizing strikes and a mechanical flaw in his swing. Ramirez's departure may play a role, but it's not going to be the dominant factor, especially when Youkilis is batting .378/.489/.667 in the cleanup spot. Ortiz won't have that protection in front of him anymore, either, now that he's been dropped to the No. 6 spot by manager Terry Francona.