Drivers with the best chance of breaking The Big Four's monopoly

After jumping 19 positions in the standings in 2008, Brian Vickers is poised for a breakout performance in '09. Getty Images Tom Bowles's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Tom. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

As the coverage of Super Bowl Sunday reaches fever pitch this week, the big story continues to be Arizona's sudden surge. After winning just one postseason game between 1975 and 2007, the Cardinals swept through the playoffs and are suddenly on the verge of their first NFL title since 1947 -- the year NASCAR was formed in a smoky room down at Daytona Beach.

In the midst of such surprising success, it's a reminder every driver will come back to Daytona next week capable of chasing the same dream. And while the "Big Four" of Roush, Childress, Hendrick, and Gibbs have dominated the Chase in recent years -- taking all 12 spots in 2008 -- plenty of middle-tier organizations feel that if everything breaks their way, they'll be in position to pull an Arizona-like crash into NASCAR's postseason party this September.

With that in mind, here are five drivers who have the best chance of breaking the dominance of the Big Four on the Chase in 2009:

Brian Vickers. After enduring a miserable '07 season, in which he failed to qualify 13 times, Vickers was criticized for leaving the comfort of Hendrick Motorsports for a new team in Red Bull Racing. But 2008 saw an impressive turnaround, with three top five and six top 10 finishes leading to a jump from 38th to 19th in the final standings. Red Bull remains at a bit of a disadvantage -- it's only a two-car team in an era of four-car giants -- but General Manager Jay Frye has made a habit of doing a lot with a little. He was in charge of Mark Martin's surprising run to the top of the point standings with Ginn Racing in '07. Moreover, his greatest asset is hiring the right people, and in the offseason, he struck gold once again. Ryan Pemberton, longtime crew chief at Ginn and MB2, will be reunited with his former boss to lead Vickers' No. 83.

As long as the chemistry between Vickers and Pemberton holds up, that'll lead to immediate improvement -- the head wrench is well-respected around the garage, and led David Reutimann to a career year in 2008. But Pemberton's leadership will be most critical on pit road. Frye believes silly mistakes doomed Red Bull all too often last year, most notably a loose wheel on a winning car that led to a Charlotte wreck instead of Victory Lane. But if the team can capitalize on those intermediate track performances instead of throwing them away, Vickers could find himself toe-to-toe with his former Hendrick teammates in the playoffs.

Tony Stewart. Without question, all the buzz this January surrounds how quickly Stewart has gotten his team together. Signing additional financial support in an age in which money doesn't come easy, Stewart-Haas Racing has positioned itself to make a big splash in its first season. But while chassis and engine support will come from the power of Hendrick, there's still the matter of pure statistics. The Stewart-Haas cars -- as Haas CNC Racing last season -- had a total of one top 10 finish in 65 starts on the circuit. In fact, the car Stewart is driving was 43rd in owner points in 2008, dead last among all cars that attempted the full schedule. As a result, the two-time champ will actually have to qualify on speed for the first five races of 2009, even though his champion's provisional virtually assures he'll make the field.

With a solid restrictor plate program in place, all indications are that Stewart and new teammate Ryan Newman will come out of the box strong at Daytona. But can Stewart's momentum continue at California, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, intermediate tracks at which the driver was mostly a seventh to 12th place runner with Joe Gibbs Racing equipment last year? Getting off to a quick start will be the key to Stewart's Chase bid because his temper can only be capped for so long if the team starts to struggle.

Martin Truex, Jr. Two years after Truex chose to stand pat at DEI and not follow good friend Dale Earnhardt, Jr. out the door, you have to wonder how Truex feels about that decision now. Chaos reigned at those Mooresville shops in the offseason, with the departure of several drivers and sponsors leading to a merger with Chip Ganassi Racing simply to keep the team's head above water.

But while much of the new organization remains uncertain -- sponsorship has yet to be announced for the third and fourth cars -- Truex's team remains intact under longtime crew chief Kevin "Bono" Manion. Towards the end of 2008, the No. 1 car was showing signs of life, leading at Kansas towards the end of September before being doomed by mechanical failure. And after time to reflect, Truex didn't have that bad of a year in 2008. Take away a 150-point penalty at Daytona for failing CoT inspection, and he comes within 148 points of making the Chase.

With EGR likely in position to use its fourth car as an R&D effort, the team has the potential to try risky new setups each week to figure out how to catch up. And whatever information they'll obtain will benefit Truex the most, clearly the No. 1 operation within this camp. The big question for Truex's season is whether he'll stay at DEI or bolt. There could be possible openings at RCR and Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the season, attractive options to take the next step in his career. But if Truex gets distracted by free agency, will his team rally behind him enough to make a run at the Top 12?

Kasey Kahne. No one won more races outside the Big Four than the No. 9 team last season, as Kahne streaked to victories at Charlotte and Pocono in late Spring. But inconsistency doomed the fifth-year driver down the stretch, and a Bristol wreck combined with a race-long struggle at Richmond led to another Chase near-miss.

Team director Kenny Francis is one of the best in the business, but the inconsistency within the No. 9 continues to baffle everyone around them. Fourteen top 10 finishes were offset by nine of 31st or worse, and Kahne led just one lap over the final 15 races. It seems like when this team has a rough-handling race car, its not good at making the best of it; instead, it throws the day away and runs 35th instead of gunning for 20th. That's a race-winning strategy... but not a Chase-making one. Things that will help Kahne this year include a new Dodge engine and solid financial support. But the loss of Ray Evernham from the shop and uncertainty of the other teams in the newly-merged Richard Petty Motorsports leaves a lot of question marks.

Kurt Busch. Speaking of giant question marks, no one knows what to make of the elder Busch's 2008. While his brother was tearing up the circuit, the 2004 champion went from preseason title favorite to the year's big disappointment, crashing out of three of the first 10 races following a runner-up finish in the Daytona 500. When the smoke cleared, Busch was too far back to make any sort of charge towards the Chase, and the chemistry between he and Pat Tryson evaporated amongst Car of Tomorrow equipment that was light years behind the Big Four.

But after missing the playoffs by a mile, Busch's "postseason" was actually somewhat productive. Helping spearhead the development of the new Dodge engine, the No. 2 car debuted it to three top 10s over the final six events, showing more signs of life than it had all season long. However, those runs were combined with finishes of 36th, 41st, and 43rd, with two DNFs.

No Dodge teams made the Chase for the first time in history last season, and pure odds would have you think that can't happen twice. For Busch to take control, though, he'll have to keep the legendary family temper under control. During a run at Martinsville last Fall, he got so aggravated with the car's mechanical woes he threatened over the radio to park it and walk away.

That's not exactly the way to develop team chemistry for 2009; but then again, what was the chemistry like at Arizona before this season? Just another sign you can never count the underdogs out -- especially a former champ.